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  1. #2441
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    yield on this triple what you get in the bank , should be $4 not under 3 go figure?
    Certainly worth all of 3 and more but not sure about 4. One needs to consider the very gradual depletion of their oil and gas reserves which has implications for dividends about 15 years from now...but frankly that's too far down the track for me to care about.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #2442
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jantar View Post
    The main issue with the Rankine units, and what the EA failed to understand, is that the turbo generators can be refurbished quite easily, even at a cost of 20 - 40% of new. It is the boilers, that bit that uses the heat to turn water into steam, that can not be easily refurbished, and that is the part that is at the end of its life. At Huntly, the boilers are part of the building. They are suspended from the top so that thermal expansion would not be an issue, and the boiler housing is in a water bath to get an airproof seal. Removing the old boilers will mean dismantling part of the building and that is what makes extending their life uneconomic.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jantar View Post
    I was involved, with the commissioning of the last Rankine unit in 1985. These units were designed with an economic life of 25 - 30 years, which should have meant they would be retired between 2010 and 2015. Sure enough Genesis decommissioned 1 unit and mothballed another before that date in order to extend the life of the other 2 units. I can see how they may be kept going out to 2022, but beyond that will be a real task.

    Refurbishing the generators and turbines is neither difficult, not too expensive: It is the boilers and condensers that will cause the real issues. Boiler tube leaks are always hard to find and fix, but as the boilers get older this task becomes even more problematic. Replacing the boiler is not an option, as it is an integral part of the building.

    However, the Rankine units have proved to be the most versatile thermal machines ever installed in New Zealand, and in many respects are even better than the more modern CCGT plant. I really hope that Genesis can find a way to keep these units running economically.
    Below is Beagle's question from the Meridian thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Thank you, yes I read his post. I take everything I read on here with a grain of salt and please, this post is not intended to offend anyone.
    If anyone has a link to information supportive of that view as presented by the company itself I am all ears.
    Beagle, a steam boiler is a pressure vessel and its life is generally proportional to the number of cycles it has been through (i.e the number of times it is started from cold and brought up to operating pressure,) Under the New Zealand Boiler Code, steam boilers must be serviced every quarter and undergo an annual survey to ensure safe operation.

    During an inspection some things can be replaced: like safety valves and sight glasses. You can bring a boiler up to pressure and check if there is a subsequent loss of pressure, indicating a leak. You can certainly inspect the tube plating for cracks. But 'fixing' boiler plating in situ can introduce new stresses into the system. A new boiler, while it is being constructed can be heat treated to get rid of such stresses at the end of the detail manufacturing stage But this could involve heating up the whole structure in an environmentally controlled way. That would not be possible once the boiler was installed at the operating site, complete with bolt on additions that might be damaged with such heat treating repair work.

    A boiler that is good for 25-30 years will not suddenly fall apart on the 30th anniversary of its commissioning. It really depends on its operational history from commissioning up until that point. I presume Jantar's comment about mothballing two boilers to extend the life of the other units is something to do with having less boiler shutdown cycles. This has been made possible because Huntly does not need to run all of those Rankine units at the same time any more. By doing this, Genesis has been able to extend the design life of these boilers beyond the 2010 to 2015 originally envisaged. Exactly how many of these boiler cycles have been 'saved' by careful operational management is unknown. Genesis will probably know, but they won't be keen for their competitors to know with any great precision the expected life those boilers that remain operational. Only Genesis themselves will know what sort of patch up repair bills they will face if they extend the boiler's operations to 2022. Jantar could be wrong with his expected boiler life assessment, because he probably does not know the actual boiler use pattern in recent years. But given he is probably one of the most qualified people you will find who is willing to speak of it, I wouldn't bet against his assessment.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 25-03-2019 at 02:47 PM.
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  3. #2443
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jantar View Post
    I was involved, with the commissioning of the last Rankine unit in 1985. These units were designed with an economic life of 25 - 30 years, which should have meant they would be retired between 2010 and 2015. Sure enough Genesis decommissioned 1 unit and mothballed another before that date in order to extend the life of the other 2 units. I can see how they may be kept going out to 2022, but beyond that will be a real task.

    Refurbishing the generators and turbines is neither difficult, not too expensive: It is the boilers and condensers that will cause the real issues. Boiler tube leaks are always hard to find and fix, but as the boilers get older this task becomes even more problematic. Replacing the boiler is not an option, as it is an integral part of the building.

    However, the Rankine units have proved to be the most versatile thermal machines ever installed in New Zealand, and in many respects are even better than the more modern CCGT plant. I really hope that Genesis can find a way to keep these units running economically.
    hi jantar , is the lifespan dependant on the amount of use. ie full on use less than 5yrs little use longer than 5yrs ?

    i see in the article it states

    probably stop running during summer and other periods of low power prices within that timeframe, wholesale general manager Shaun Goldsbury says
    one step ahead of the herd

  4. #2444
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Fair enough Snoopy but this "I really hope that Genesis can find a way to keep these units running economically" is easier to do when one is looking at them running when marginal generation is needed at $200 - $300 mw/hr is it not ? This summer is a classic case in point. It simply hasn't rained and when it has, its rained where its least helpful.

    GNE also have the new 100 Mw wind farm coming on stream in due course. Where there is a will there is often a way to keep old machinery going and as mentioned before I think we're headed into the next decade of very tight supply constraint in N.Z.

    GNE to get maximum bang for buck from their Kupe field and Rankine units over the foreseeable future, that's how I see it.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #2445
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    $3 ++++ beckons the biggest yield play left on the nzx
    one step ahead of the herd

  6. #2446
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    $3 ++++ beckons the biggest yield play left on the nzx
    Looks like we may get a boil over on close
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #2447
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    investor roadshow in australia

    Genesis Energy will be meetings with investors this week in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane.

    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/332460

    bound to drum up more shareholders to invest
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  8. #2448
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    some interesting things in the presentation

    only paying out 78% of free cashflow on divs with a stated top of 90% of free cashflow. leaves plenty of room for rising divs.

    gas contracts fall of from 2021 so will get a boost to bottom line
    one step ahead of the herd

  9. #2449
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    some interesting things in the presentation

    only paying out 78% of free cashflow on divs with a stated top of 90% of free cashflow. leaves plenty of room for rising divs.

    gas contracts fall of from 2021 so will get a boost to bottom line
    Yes they are keeping a LOT of dry powder there. Interesting contrast to CEN now paying out 100% of free cash flow.

    Another top up by this dog this morning. Ultra low interest rates for the next decade is how I see it.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #2450
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Yes they are keeping a LOT of dry powder there. Interesting contrast to CEN now paying out 100% of free cash flow.

    Another top up by this dog this morning. Ultra low interest rates for the next decade is how I see it.
    wise dog on this one

    see nz bond yields dropped to 1.91% a record low. 8.4% vrs 1.91% no way its going to remain like that for ever
    Last edited by bull....; 26-03-2019 at 10:44 AM.
    one step ahead of the herd

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