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  1. #2511
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    4 mil shares today the word is getting out hottest sustainable div on the nzx .... wont last long
    one step ahead of the herd

  2. #2512
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    More 'widespread' falls

    "While the pace of falls has slowed in March, the scope of the downturn has become more geographically widespread," Mr Lawless said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-...ction=business

    slowdown will come light night comes to day
    one step ahead of the herd

  3. #2513
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    More 'widespread' falls

    "While the pace of falls has slowed in March, the scope of the downturn has become more geographically widespread," Mr Lawless said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-...ction=business

    slowdown will come light night comes to day

    OK then just ordered 15000 at 3.40. that should help it along

  4. #2514
    …just try’n to manage expectations… Maverick's Avatar
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    I really aren't getting the warm fuzzies with this company. Firstly, in my former life I ran an electrical company so I am predisposed to HATE power providers. They are the hopeless of the hopeless to deal with.(sorry you poor call center guys , it's not your fault)

    That aside, the PE of about 14 is barely exciting when compared to other offerings on the NZX. Reading through the investor presentation I see that their recent rise in profit is solely based on revaluing their stuff over the last two years. It seems to me their normalised "trading" profit has actually slightly reduced.
    Sure, if the road show currently running makes this the permanent blue chip (think RYM over its peers) of the power sector then its sp has already done its run and might hold. I doubt it will though IMO.
    However, for me , it's a highly competitive sector (so I factor no more than inflation driven profit improvements) and its sp has already become maximised from the roadshow. This term " ultra low inflation environment " applies to all divi stocks, not just Genesis so I don't see it as a specific thing to this particular stock.
    To me, buying GNE right now is akin to buying a timeshare which seems exciting at the time amongst the roadshow razzmatazz but regretted two years on. This sp now has plenty of room to fall. Being left with a non growing 7.5% gross divi is not where I personally want to be, but might suit some. I get it that the feeling of owning a utility feels safe ( for us oldies who played monopoly) but so is a petrol station, a company that sells socks, or fast food outlet etc etc.
    I am purely a "value" investor and there will be other styles of investing out there which have their own parameters so I am not speaking for them ( such as momentum trading, chart guys etc )
    I just don't see why there is so much excitement aimed at this particular company with so many others offering more.
    Last edited by Maverick; 02-04-2019 at 06:45 AM.

  5. #2515
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    Well said Maverick, I feel a great deal of caution should be exercised when buying the power companies at their current prices.

  6. #2516
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Well said Maverick, I feel a great deal of caution should be exercised when buying the power companies at their current prices.
    You expecting David Cunliffe back 😂

  7. #2517
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  8. #2518
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    last day to get your hands on the divvy folks
    one step ahead of the herd

  9. #2519
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maverick View Post
    I really aren't getting the warm fuzzies with this company. Firstly, in my former life I ran an electrical company so I am predisposed to HATE power providers. They are the hopeless of the hopeless to deal with.(sorry you poor call center guys , it's not your fault)

    That aside, the PE of about 14 is barely exciting when compared to other offerings on the NZX. Reading through the investor presentation I see that their recent rise in profit is solely based on revaluing their stuff over the last two years. It seems to me their normalised "trading" profit has actually slightly reduced.
    Sure, if the road show currently running makes this the permanent blue chip (think RYM over its peers) of the power sector then its sp has already done its run and might hold. I doubt it will though IMO.
    However, for me , it's a highly competitive sector (so I factor no more than inflation driven profit improvements) and its sp has already become maximised from the roadshow. This term " ultra low inflation environment " applies to all divi stocks, not just Genesis so I don't see it as a specific thing to this particular stock.
    To me, buying GNE right now is akin to buying a timeshare which seems exciting at the time amongst the roadshow razzmatazz but regretted two years on. This sp now has plenty of room to fall. Being left with a non growing 7.5% gross divi is not where I personally want to be, but might suit some. I get it that the feeling of owning a utility feels safe ( for us oldies who played monopoly) but so is a petrol station, a company that sells socks, or fast food outlet etc etc.
    I am purely a "value" investor and there will be other styles of investing out there which have their own parameters so I am not speaking for them ( such as momentum trading, chart guys etc )
    I just don't see why there is so much excitement aimed at this particular company with so many others offering more.
    i dont know where to start , some of your statements are factually incorrect

    power companies future growth is coming from climate change , electric vehicles , population increase etc they are not stagnant businesses anymore.

    dividends are sustainable unlike most business

    a big reason for the out performance of power companies is they are cheap on a cashflow basis ( mel and gne are the cheapest hence why they are outperforming the others)

    everytime interest rates decrease or the time horizon for rate increases is pushed further out it makes there valuations even cheaper on a cashflow basis because there earnings are increasing every year , not stagnating. as an example gne in 2021 will get a substantial boost in cashflow because of drop off in gas contracts. thats why my cashflow valuation says its cheap for 2021 earnings.
    rbnz drops rates makes it even cheaper going forward.
    it is not the blue chip of power companies but offers a good return of them all based on valuation thats what the market is seeing it as cheap and why it is outperforming. market is repricing them.

    that link to article i posted while back saying gne has returned 27% every yr since listing in 2014 and could well return same again this yr , pretty good in my books

    heres a news story today nz interest rate coming as early as may , makes power companies look even more attractive again

    https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...t-ocr-cut.html
    Last edited by bull....; 02-04-2019 at 07:36 AM.
    one step ahead of the herd

  10. #2520
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    I must be morphing into the bull cause I'm feeling a sense of caution about the market as everyone piles in chasing yield, metrics are stretched big time in many companies now, there are still value plays out there like OCA and a few others but I reckon keeping one hand on the exit door would be a good strategy to employ going forward.
    Last edited by couta1; 02-04-2019 at 07:59 AM.

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