GNE - Genesis Energy

[xafalcon]

90-95% can't afford one in my opinion and I see a lot about quite a range of different peoples finances, otherwise I agree with everything else you've said with the additional point that for people to believe the payback period actually is real they need to trust the manufacturers of the different expensive components that they're capable of being around for the long haul to cover the warranty. Those cheap Chinese made solar panels with a 25 year warranty...what exactly is that warranty worth, not much more than the paper its printed on ?

It's not simply about affordability. I would suggest any familiy that can afford to upgrade their car, can afford to install a PV system. But the desire to invest must also be there, and this is by far the largest impediment. It is identical to the sharemarket. You must have the finance and want to invest. Lots of people could actually afford to invest the capital for a PV solar system. But renters won't want to invest (it's not their house), yuppies probably won't (prefer the newer car), 1st home buyers probably won't (prefer to do reno work), lots of other people won't want to for a variety of their own personal reasons. The proportion of the population who can afford to invest AND who want to invest is currently very very small, but growing. And as personal experiences are shared, the transition will accelerate as more people want to install this technology.

China is the worlds largest PV panel producer by a long way. Just because an item is made in China does not mean the quality is poor. Use of tier 1 manufacturer panels is a good guide to reasonable quality. Aligning with a "proper" installation company in NZ is also another good idea for those who want ultimate security because the guarantee is with them rather than the manufacturer.

You are clearly opposed to this technology, but this is irrelevant to the growing adoption of PV solar in NZ. The ONLY mechanism that will retard PV solar roll-out will be significant electricity cost reduction to private homes in NZ. I don't see that happening unless it is by regulation.......

[PSE]

It's not simply about affordability. I would suggest any familiy that can afford to upgrade their car, can afford to install a PV system. But the desire to invest must also be there, and this is by far the largest impediment. It is identical to the sharemarket. You must have the finance and want to invest. Lots of people could actually afford to invest the capital for a PV solar system. But renters won't want to invest (it's not their house), yuppies probably won't (prefer the newer car), 1st home buyers probably won't (prefer to do reno work), lots of other people won't want to for a variety of their own personal reasons. The proportion of the population who can afford to invest AND who want to invest is currently very very small, but growing. And as personal experiences are shared, the transition will accelerate as more people want to install this technology.

China is the worlds largest PV panel producer by a long way. Just because an item is made in China does not mean the quality is poor. Use of tier 1 manufacturer panels is a good guide to reasonable quality. Aligning with a "proper" installation company in NZ is also another good idea for those who want ultimate security because the guarantee is with them rather than the manufacturer.

You are clearly opposed to this technology, but this is irrelevant to the growing adoption of PV solar in NZ. The ONLY mechanism that will retard PV solar roll-out will be significant electricity cost reduction to private homes in NZ. I don't see that happening unless it is by regulation.......

The regulation is coming as per my post on page 94, looks like the EA is evaluating the 25c per kWh that residential solar gets by offsetting consumption and will probably come out with a new price of 8-9c/kWh in line with other renewable generation which relies on the grid.
Once this happens no-one will install solar until it becomes economic i.e. reduces to a 3rd of it's present cost.

[Markymarknz]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...ers-free-power

So what if you have a Tesla Powerwall and use the free "hour of power" to charge it? I would assume it still doesn't make the solar/battery combo a slam dunk win for cost benefits, but it might start making this more competitive as an option (i.e. the non-sunny days you can still charge your battery for free?)

[Harvey Specter]

The regulation is coming as per my post on page 94, looks like the EA is evaluating the 25c per kWh that residential solar gets by offsetting consumption and will probably come out with a new price of 8-9c/kWh in line with other renewable generation which relies on the grid.
Once this happens no-one will install solar until it becomes economic i.e. reduces to a 3rd of it's present cost.

This doesn't require the EA. All retailers have now dropped the feed in price they pay to around 8c: http://powersmartsolar.co.nz/Compare...city_retailers

So what if you have a Tesla Powerwall and use the free "hour of power" to charge it? I would assume it still doesn't make the solar/battery combo a slam dunk win for cost benefits, but it might start making this more competitive as an option (i.e. the non-sunny days you can still charge your battery for free?)

Genius. I wonder if they have some sort of fair use policy. I also wonder how programmable the powerwall will be - dont think I have seen any details on the IT/user interface.

[PSE]

This doesn't require the EA. All retailers have now dropped the feed in price they pay to around 8c: http://powersmartsolar.co.nz/Compare...city_retailers

Right yes I know they have reduced the excess sold back to the grid last year to 9c a kilowatt hour, the next step will come from the EA and will mean that all electricity from solar only gets 8-9c kWh as it should.
No more offsetting your use in summer and then expecting to use the grid in winter for free when everyone is maxxing it out.
Because it would be bad politics for the gentailers to kill solar off, as it needs to be killed off until it make financial sense.

[Harvey Specter]

Right yes I know they have reduced the excess sold back to the grid last year to 9c a kilowatt hour, the next step will come from the EA and will mean that all electricity from solar only gets 8-9c kWh as it should.

Not sure I can tell the difference? Surely all electricity from PV is now down to those levels given no retailer would pay more unless they were doing it as marketing.

[Beagle]

It's not simply about affordability. I would suggest any familiy that can afford to upgrade their car, can afford to install a PV system. But the desire to invest must also be there, and this is by far the largest impediment. It is identical to the sharemarket. You must have the finance and want to invest. Lots of people could actually afford to invest the capital for a PV solar system. But renters won't want to invest (it's not their house), yuppies probably won't (prefer the newer car), 1st home buyers probably won't (prefer to do reno work), lots of other people won't want to for a variety of their own personal reasons. The proportion of the population who can afford to invest AND who want to invest is currently very very small, but growing. And as personal experiences are shared, the transition will accelerate as more people want to install this technology.

China is the worlds largest PV panel producer by a long way. Just because an item is made in China does not mean the quality is poor. Use of tier 1 manufacturer panels is a good guide to reasonable quality. Aligning with a "proper" installation company in NZ is also another good idea for those who want ultimate security because the guarantee is with them rather than the manufacturer.

You are clearly opposed to this technology, but this is irrelevant to the growing adoption of PV solar in NZ. The ONLY mechanism that will retard PV solar roll-out will be significant electricity cost reduction to private homes in NZ. I don't see that happening unless it is by regulation.......

The epiphany post is Rep's post 1447 wherein that poster made the point that most people don't stay in their houses long enough to enjoy the payback period.

I'm not against solar per se it just doesn't make economic sense at the current prices. Regarding your car analogy, its really quite different. For a start most cars are sold on credit, people buy modern cars so they have reliable and safe transport for their families and to get to work i.e. its a requirement not a choice for most consumers. regarding trust in the manufacture process and the durability of supplier and installers to be around in 25 years time, you don't see many Chineese made cars sold here do you ?, whereas OTOH people seem confident for example BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Honda Toyota e.t.c. will be around to honour their warranties.

Likewise I suggest you watch Fair Go as its riddled with stories of fly by night installers for all sorts of products that are here today and gone tomorrow. Oh Please...trsut an installer they'll be here to fix your warranty problems in 15 years time, yeah right...someone hand me a Tui. Its a trust issue as well as the lack of payback within an acceptable timeframe that's the issue IMO. Anyway I for one am done with the solar debate. Anyone that bothered to read the MEL investor day briefing that was kindly provided in this thread recently would have seen this is a non-issue for the gentailers especially viewed in tandem with the uptake of electric cars.

We'd be better off and just as poorly informed speculating on the outcome of the pending Kupe reserves re-evaluation because it will probably have a material effect on GNE. YAWN...are we down to $1.60 yet ?

[skid]

Its hard for me not to believe that this is not just people selling off now that extra share have arrived--I reckon it will taper off and perhaps bounce a bit (but not back to where it was )

Im holding for now

Interesting hearing about the solar option and would like to see it become a viable options at some stage

I think the batteries are most likely what will be the deciding factor (Its the selling back that seems to be the fly in the ointment)

[PSE]

Not sure I can tell the difference? Surely all electricity from PV is now down to those levels given no retailer would pay more unless they were doing it as marketing.

I can't explain it more clearly than I have already on this and the MELCA thread sorry. I am talking about the reduction in electricity consumption. They haven't removed the subsidy because it would look like gentailers killing solar so they will ask EA to do it.

[Snoopy]

Snoopy wrote:
That is an average of 5.4PJ per year. I think that largely takes care of the 'oversupply' situation that might force Genesis to run Unit 5 at a loss..

Its around 3 - 4 months suply for something like E3P, Otahuhu or Stratford CCGTs.

p115 of the Genesis Prospectus states that the
"total field production of volumes forecast for natural gas are 22.3PJ for FY2014 and 21.1PJ for FY2015"

Genesis has the contract for all of this natural gas. If 5.4PJ of gas will run E3P for 3 months, then EP3 as a baseload station could theoretically consume 4 x 5.4PJ = 21.6PJ in FY2015, which is more than the entire output of Kupe in 2015! I know that Genesis does buy in other gas from other fields. But it does seem unlikely that E3P was designed to consume all the gas consumed by Kupe, especially when Genesis made note that they were in an oversupply of gas situation right up to FY2020.

We know that Contact are contracted to buy 5.4PJ per year on average. According to Jantar's figures, this means that Kupe can no longer support EP3 going forwards. So it may be that this contract with Contact Energy has completely corrected Genesis's excess gas supply. That would be very positive for Genesis shareholders going forwards.

SNOOPY