GNE - Genesis Energy

[couta1]

Mate I'd definitely concede the point that its been bloody hard work "making hay" in current general market conditions but it is a worry that GNE has breeched the key technical support level of $1.80 which was established post IPO.

Fortunately this is one of my only remaining stocks that is still in the blue after selling my HNZ but its always tough watching a big paper profit turn into a much smaller one and wondering when and if you should pull the trigger and lock in what profits are left

[Master98]

Fortunately this is one of my only remaining stocks that is still in the blue after selling my HNZ but its always tough watching a big paper profit turn into a much smaller one and wondering when and if you should pull the trigger and lock in what profits are left

if you want to sale at this price tag i think too late, i bought today sold at $2.3 months ago, and i bet the smelter will not close.

[fish]

Fortunately this is one of my only remaining stocks that is still in the blue after selling my HNZ but its always tough watching a big paper profit turn into a much smaller one and wondering when and if you should pull the trigger and lock in what profits are left

I find it more successful to buy when the price is driven down by fear.
I bought lots of cen at close today -and some gne a little earlier.
Feel confident the price is likely to be higher sometime in the future and in the meantime dividends will keep me happy

[couta1]

if you want to sale at this price tag i think too late, i bought today sold at $2.3 months ago, and i bet the smelter will not close.

I agree re the smelter and I'm impressed with your timing of selling this stock and others

[couta1]

I find it more successful to buy when the price is driven down by fear.
I bought lots of cen at close today -and some gne a little earlier.
Feel confident the price is likely to be higher sometime in the future and in the meantime dividends will keep me happy

I apply your last sentence logic to all my shares currently running losses but still paying dividends even though some are a long shot at ever getting back to my buy in price.

[Master98]

I agree re the smelter and I'm impressed with your timing of selling this stock and others

believe or not, i sold all my performing stocks just want to save SPK, now buy back some of sold stocks at lower price

[sb9]

i bet the smelter will not close.

Agree with you, my gut feel is smelter won't close...

[Beagle]

I don't think it will close either but its a risk nonetheless to the sector and an uncertain overhang that the market will have learn to live with. I decided a while back I didn't want to live with that risk on an ongoing basis unless the investment case was otherwise compelling which it was for a while there but now that their oil hedges are running out and retail price competition is growing ever more intense I find it hard to see them meeting their 16 cps divvies on an ongoing basis, adjusted for inflation as represented in the IPO documentation.

From a very modest amount of research I've done on this, (and I am always more than happy to be corrected), I think Rio have written the smelter down to $20m in the subsidiary's books that this smelter is carried in and last year it made $70m. No reason why you'd close it unless there's some major catalyst for doing so like a major update to the technology required, like there was with N.Z. refining. I think there's also been talk of a change in the transmission pricing model for Transpower that could materially benefit Tiwai point so it would appear to make sense for Rio to wait for the outcome of that review, at least.

Couta mate this is a really hard stock to value...best to let the brokers do their thing with valuing this but I have very little confidence in Jenny Shipley so that's a factor that discourages me.

For divvy hounds I see better prospects with HLG and PGW which both pay superior fully imputed gross yields and don't have the smelter overhang or Shipley issue this company does.

[workingdad]

I don't think it will close either but its a risk nonetheless to the sector and an uncertain overhang that the market will have learn to live with. I decided a while back I didn't want to live with that risk on an ongoing basis unless the investment case was otherwise compelling which it was for a while there but now that their oil hedges are running out and retail price competition is growing ever more intense I find it hard to see them meeting their 16 cps divvies on an ongoing basis, adjusted for inflation as represented in the IPO documentation.

From a very modest amount of research I've done on this, (and I am always more than happy to be corrected), I think Rio have written the smelter down to $20m in the subsidiary's books that this smelter is carried in and last year it made $70m. No reason why you'd close it unless there's some major catalyst for doing so like a major update to the technology required, like there was with N.Z. refining. I think there's also been talk of a change in the transmission pricing model for Transpower that could materially benefit Tiwai point so it would appear to make sense for Rio to wait for the outcome of that review, at least.

Couta mate this is a really hard stock to value...best to let the brokers do their thing with valuing this but I have very little confidence in Jenny Shipley so that's a factor that discourages me.

For divvy hounds I see better prospects with HLG and PGW which both pay superior fully imputed gross yields and don't have the smelter overhang or Shipley issue this company does.

I had a look at profit/loss and link to aluminium prices and going from memory they are very hit and miss, when the aluminium prices are low historically they ran at a loss (big suprise there I know....) and when it was high they were printing cash (again - stating the obvious), more recently they managed to extract a profit during less than ideal aluminium pricing times so that tells me they are running more efficiently and able to operate even in this climate without taking a significant hit. Looking ahead, crystal ball stuff but the world stock levels of aluminuim recently are on the low side so one could hazard a guess and say the prices are due to recover at some stage as they need to stock up and demand starts to build.

Like I said, from memory and I am not very experianced at this sort of thing so correct me if I am wrong and this is just my simplistic take on it but I wanted to get an idea on the liklihood of Tiwai staying or going on the fundamentals alone and formed the opinion they will stay - keep the 400MW and hunt around for the remainder elsewhere.

[Beagle]

I had a look at profit/loss and link to aluminium prices and going from memory they are very hit and miss, when the aluminium prices are low historically they ran at a loss (big suprise there I know....) and when it was high they were printing cash (again - stating the obvious), more recently they managed to extract a profit during less than ideal aluminium pricing times so that tells me they are running more efficiently and able to operate even in this climate without taking a significant hit. Looking ahead, crystal ball stuff but the world stock levels of aluminuim recently are on the low side so one could hazard a guess and say the prices are due to recover at some stage as they need to stock up and demand starts to build.

Like I said, from memory and I am not very experianced at this sort of thing so correct me if I am wrong and this is just my simplistic take on it but I wanted to get an idea on the liklihood of Tiwai staying or going on the fundamentals alone and formed the opinion they will stay - keep the 400MW and hunt around for the remainder elsewhere.

I think so mate. Rio Tinto's annual report, (from memory it was pages 28 and 29) gave some good insights into where they see aluminium demand going. Worth a read. They're quite positive as all the vehicle manufacturers have to meet ever tightening corporate average fuel economy standards and one way of doing that is making vehicles lighter with the extensive use of...you guessed it