GNE - Genesis Energy

[fish]

price of oil has plunged but compensated by the nz dollar plunging.
Difficult to pick the bottom.
Next weeks price is unpredictable.
SP is very unpredictable
However if you buy and hold dividends almost certain to remain a fantastic return.
A low interest period-as is highly probable will be strong impetus to buy and hold long-term

[huxley]

Well that didn't last, might have to take remaining profits if it goes any lower

When everybody thinks the price is going to hell in a hand basket thats the time to buy

[Beagle]

price of oil has plunged but compensated by the nz dollar plunging.
Difficult to pick the bottom.
Next weeks price is unpredictable.
SP is very unpredictable
However if you buy and hold dividends almost certain to remain a fantastic return.
A low interest period-as is highly probable will be strong impetus to buy and hold long-term

Everyone's "fishing" (sorry couldn't resist), around, (incl me), wondering where the bottom is.

[huxley]

Everyone's "fishing" (sorry couldn't resist), around, (incl me), wondering where the bottom is.

If you're a buy & hold you could always DCA in...

[couta1]

When everybody thinks the price is going to hell in a hand basket thats the time to buy

Yeah I'm long on this stock but its always sad to see 20k of paper profits dissapear over a few months.

[Crackity]

price of oil has plunged but compensated by the nz dollar plunging.
Difficult to pick the bottom.
Next weeks price is unpredictable.
SP is very unpredictable
However if you buy and hold dividends almost certain to remain a fantastic return.
A low interest period-as is highly probable will be strong impetus to buy and hold long-term

Agree totally

[Baa_Baa]

What's with GNE? After a healthy gain post election it breaks down, and shows off the major supports and Fibs like a good stock, then says f'that and bombs to 100% of the low after the IPO. But wait there's more, now it's in the opposite space as blue sky .. is that blue abyss?

Careful folks, there's no price precedent here or below and no-one knows how low this could go. Tomorrow could be the bottom, or not. What we do know from excellent FA posts is that the lower it does go, the better the yield is. Genesis isn't going out of business any time soon is it?

But here's a falling knife if you ever saw one.

disc: not holding but watching closely.

Attachment 7468

[Crackity]

Trading rule # 16 - the trend is always your friend until it isn't...

[Beagle]

If you're a buy & hold you could always DCA in...

Yes you could dollar cost average in OR you could look at Baa Baa's chart he's kindly produced and run for the hills.

What's with GNE? After a healthy gain post election it breaks down, and shows off the major supports and Fibs like a good stock, then says f'that and bombs to 100% of the low after the IPO. But wait there's more, now it's in the opposite space as blue sky .. is that blue abyss?

Careful folks, there's no price precedent here or below and no-one knows how low this could go. Tomorrow could be the bottom, or not. What we do know from excellent FA posts is that the lower it does go, the better the yield is. Genesis isn't going out of business any time soon is it?

But here's a falling knife if you ever saw one.

disc: not holding but watching closely.

Attachment 7468

Scary, scary chart mate. Disc, sold out mostly at $2.30...thinking of getting back in but the chart is so ugly it scares me off. Safer to wait till there's a confirmed bottoming out...I think so.
For capital preservation purposes I think I'll wait untill it breaks back up through the 100 day MA....however long that might take.

[PSE]

I am worried about you now Snoopy. Your beagle nose is incredibly slow. This was discussed at some length months ago. Meanwhile the price of oil is tanking again and GNE have the worst customer satisfaction of all the power companies. Craigs have a fair value in the late 130's if Tiwai announce full closure...GNE worst affected by miles with no home for their relatively expensive gas fired production and no home for some of Kupe's gas. Worse, their previously held oil futures providing insulation from the big oil drop are running out quickly just like their credits from their depleted imputation credit account. Reduced dividends in FY16 with reduced dividend imputation credits...I think so !!
Who's brave enough to catch a falling knife

I catch all kinds of knives at the pointy end and have no trouble with it.
However I agree stay away from GNE at these prices, the Craig's report highlights that GNE is the ugly duckling because of take or pay gas. It can either sell electricity to Tiwai and run E3P at a big cash loss until 2020 or it can watch the wholesale price crash.
I mentioned this earlier on the thread, I was keen to buy at $1.5 lets see what happens. Maybe I was to generous in light of subsequent events.