Intueri Education IPO

[winner69]

Latest Stats NZ report on migration numbers made this comment .'..there's been a sharp decline in arrivals of international students in recent months'

Just saying. Dontbven know if relevant to this thread

[Zaphod]

Foreign student numbers have always been very cyclical. There are numerous variables at play here, from the relative strength of the NZD right through to the perception of how safe or welcoming the country is. We are probably failing on both of those counts right now.

[Lewylewylewy]

Is the comment about the period of time when students normally arrive (IE a few months before term starts), or is it thoughtless, raw analysis of the data alone, I wonder.

[trackers]

If you look at Tony Alexander's ongoing comments, migration here has never been better. That's not the same as students coming to study, but its important to be considered in parallel. On the whole I think we do look very attractive to foreigners

[Lewylewylewy]

I'm not sure that I look attractive to anybody lol

If you're interested, get the data from the govt stats website and avoid the conjecture. It's free

[Meister]

Being very conservative and assuming earnings actually decrease from this year on at 5% a year, Intueri should still be worth 70-80c a share.
Could their earnings really fall like that? Possible, but they are still forecasting growth in their International segment, and I would be surprised if the online segment was flat. I think this scenario is at the unlikely end of the spectrum, however the next year will still be interesting due to Quantum and the TEC restrictions upon it, which mean Intueri expect Quantum to make a "mild loss". This really damages their Domestic segment and puts their bank covenants under threat.

This is the big risk for the business, along with the fraud investigation which could presumably result in a fine. The fraud investigation is related to happenings before Intueri took over, and if the worst case here eventuates it would be a one-off event. They also predict Quantum will be back in the positive in 2017.

So while the next year may see a small earnings decrease, the business as a whole is definitely going to keep making a profit, should actually be growing earnings from 2017 onwards, and will be focused on paying down its debt such that they won't run into any banking trouble - ideally another temporary, one-off event. I don't expect them to overextend themselves again and they have mentioned being far more conservative in their own estimates, which will help them avoid doing just that.

It seems that in the worst case, they would require a small capital raising to keep the banks happy. However, the 2017 and beyond outlook is not bad at all even if this capital raising occurs. Way down here at 40c a share Intueri seem undervalued to me despite the hurdles they face. They have a great profit margin already and lots of room for efficiencies to be introduced - they just need the time (and maybe a little capital support) to show it.

[Hectorplains]

Being very conservative and assuming earnings actually decrease from this year on at 5% a year, Intueri should still be worth 70-80c a share.
Could their earnings really fall like that? Possible, but they are still forecasting growth in their International segment, and I would be surprised if the online segment was flat. I think this scenario is at the unlikely end of the spectrum, however the next year will still be interesting due to Quantum and the TEC restrictions upon it, which mean Intueri expect Quantum to make a "mild loss". This really damages their Domestic segment and puts their bank covenants under threat.


This is the big risk for the business, along with the fraud investigation which could presumably result in a fine. The fraud investigation is related to happenings before Intueri took over, and if the worst case here eventuates it would be a one-off event. They also predict Quantum will be back in the positive in 2017.

So while the next year may see a small earnings decrease, the business as a whole is definitely going to keep making a profit, should actually be growing earnings from 2017 onwards, and will be focused on paying down its debt such that they won't run into any banking trouble - ideally another temporary, one-off event. I don't expect them to overextend themselves again and they have mentioned being far more conservative in their own estimates, which will help them avoid doing just that.

It seems that in the worst case, they would require a small capital raising to keep the banks happy. However, the 2017 and beyond outlook is not bad at all even if this capital raising occurs. Way down here at 40c a share Intueri seem undervalued to me despite the hurdles they face. They have a great profit margin already and lots of room for efficiencies to be introduced - they just need the time (and maybe a little capital support) to show it.

Is a 5% decrease in earnings really conservative? They're obviously taking a liver punch with Quantum but where is their good news on NZIS etc? I still think they may have paid overs...

I agree 40c is undervalued but by how much? My sums come up with a 50 -55 c - given all the risks involved. Those risks are real too - look at Vocation on ASX.

[Hectorplains]

ASX announcement out this afternoon. JCP is still selling.

I also sold out a few weeks ago for a small profit. Waiting for re-entry later maybe. I'm surprised this has remained at the same level for some time now.

AGM on the 18th - Rob"no reason to panic" Facer's credibility is on the line. Even disregarding Quantum, Dive school and DnA (at a most generous pinch) the rest of the stable should be announcing good student numbers and Intueri addressing bank covenant issues and a clear timeline forward to reinstating dividends.

Yet, JCP have dumped another 10 % of their load - I really hope that's not a precursor to more negative announcements.

[Hectorplains]

No love for IQE at The Australian - http://www.afr.com/markets/equity-ma...0160513-gouau6

To be fair, Facer holds 300K. He purchased 160K at around $1.12 in Sept last year, so is deeply underwater.

[Louloubell]

Hardly a confidence inspiring presentation and facts in my humble (yeah right) opinion.