PPH - PushPay (Church/donor software.)

[Muse]

Hmm to hold or take the money and run

age old question

depends on how opportunistic the prospective acquirer is (presumably a private equity firm but could be some form of trade). With this company's SP so beaten up its easy to see how someone could lob in a standard 30% takeover premium and hope to get away with it, but that wouldn't succeed with average TP 57% above last close and any independent valuation unlikely to be below that.

then there is the baggage in the company. We don't have good visibility on the customer numbers and how they are tracking and presumably the prospective buyer(s) dont either - so they could walk away after getting a look under the hood. That said they will have been undertaking desktop due diligence and have already engaged industry experts so they will be well informed. One large private equity is known to have already done a lot of work on PPH and came close to submitting a takeover offer years ago before the SP ran up.

If the premium bid is solid I'd say it has a good chance as many shareholders will probably be relieved to get out with all the trials and tribulations the company has been through. The company release read relatively benignly and factually - sometimes initial takeover press releases have a lot of defensive language which indicates the board has it doubts. The board still might they just haven't shown any cards yet.

[RupertBear]

One bird in the hand vs two in the bush?

I guess it depends on how good you are with your falcon ... (that's where the saying is coming from) ;

Obviously - the takeover may or may not eventuate and the potential bidder may or may not be right in seeing value (if he does).

The other question would be - is this potential bid just a (temporary) gamechanger for the price hype or does it change the underlying business proposition?

Discl: 2 hot 4 me ... never really trusted some of their board members, never saw their value above the market price and see so far no reason to change my views ... but not particular good in predicting hypeswings.

Sold some, kept some, seems the right decision for me at the moment……

[Beagle]

Are PPH part of the NZX50 ?

[BlackPeter]

Are PPH part of the NZX50 ?

According to Dr. Google it is:

It is publicly listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange NZX and the Australian Securities Exchange ASX under the ticker code PPH. Pushpay joined the NZX50 Index in December 2017 and the ASX All Ordinaries Index in March 2018.

I suppose you start thinking which company could replace them in the index if the take over eventuates, aren't you ?

[Beagle]

According to Dr. Google it is:



I suppose you start thinking which company could replace them in the index if the take over eventuates, aren't you ?

LOL How on earth did you guess Hint: If WHS doesn't make it in with the ZEL takeover deal then surely its next cab off the rank with this one
Better run my own reinvestment program and reinvest today's huge dividend.

[Shareguy]

From nbr today

Takeover approaches for dual-listed church payment and management software company Pushpay are unsurprising following a near-halving of its share price over the past six months, with private equity firms or large payment companies likely circling, says an analyst covering the stock.

Pushpay today said in a statement to the NZX it had recently received “unsolicited, non-binding, and conditional expressions of interest or approaches” from third parties looking to acquire the company.

The board had appointed Goldmans to assist as financial adviser.

“There is no certainty that these expressions of interest or approaches will result in any transaction,” Pushpay said.

The company’s share price had struggled since its half-year results last November, when it lowered expectations for underlying ebitdafi (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, foreign currency gains or losses, and impairments) by about US$5 million to between US$60m and US$65m.

Its shares had fallen from $1.85 the day before its half-year results to close at $1.03 on Friday. It fell as low as 91c in February.

But shares jumped on the news of takeover approaches today, up more than a quarter in early trading before pulling back slightly to $1.23 this afternoon. More than 2.9 million shares have traded on the NZX at a value of $3.7m.

Morningstar equity analyst Shaun Ler told NBR the news was unsurprising given Pushpay’s share price had suffered from the wider market’s indiscriminate selling of technology companies this year.

That had seen multiple takeover approaches for other tech businesses.

“It’s unsurprising because Pushpay, in our view, is a deeply undervalued stock,” he said. “If you look at the data, the customer numbers are growing, they’re getting more sticky, it is still a structural growth story and not a speculative tech stock that’s not making any money.”

[alokdhir]

Can PPH go over $ 1.50 after the results ? Craigs and Morningstar thinks even higher levels possible !!!

What should be reasonable exit price for holders ?

W69 hinted at takeover rumours 2 months back ...may result in better times ahead for SP ??

[Hoop]

An example of the major risk with the Buy and Hold Strategy..Riding out the rough times only to be undone by a takeover...I instantly thought of Frucor when I read the announcement.
Disc: have none

[alokdhir]

With persistent buying ...it seems offers are serious and company is worth more . Informed buying keeping SP alive ...once over $ 1.30 ...it should move faster

Any updates please ?

Lower NZD helps this company too as all revenues in USD !!

[Muse]

With persistent buying ...it seems offers are serious and company is worth more . Informed buying keeping SP alive ...once over $ 1.30 ...it should move faster

Any updates please ?

I assume there will be some interim announcements on perfunctory steps given the initial release was light on detail. Factual information, like has the bidder requested & being granted access to a dataroom to conduct due diligence, is there a timetable to reconfirm the indicative price, is the board getting an independent report completed, is it one party or more, etc. And all that before they even say what the price, or might be after the bidder completes DD.

I have my views on what a successful price would need to be to get a transaction completed. But that is tempered by the history of the company, we don't have a good feel for what is happening at the customer level, etc.

looking forward to learning more too!