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08-02-2018, 06:56 AM
#1431
Member
My take: stop-losses are an essential discipline. Trailing a stop so that you raise it if the stock goes up, to lock in some of the profit is even better. You can split eg bought at $3.30, price moves up 10% - raise stop for 50% of position etc. tricky to get the distance right - too close and you get stopped out when the trend hasn't changed; too far and you give back too much money. Some will sell part of a position on upwards euphoric extensions, hoping to buy back on retracements. And the %s can reasonably change too - tight stops initially and then wider as more profit is made.
Those are general trading rules / tactics but more generally, I like PPH a lot - big market and apparently good management. However, the change in volatility in global markets has reduced my risk appetite, so I sold a good portion of my holding yesterday. Despite any fundamentals, the price could be driven lower, back to $3.30 or $2.40 area quite quickly if things continued to go badly globally. (Previous Dow dips have been shrugged off by the local market but the global nature of the reaction to this move, concerns me). If that happens, it can be very quick and difficult to get out of a position. Spreads widen and the pain and reluctance to enfore a stop-loss can be harsh (or an auto-stop-loss can get really bad execution).
And I think this guy makes sense generally:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-chart-reader-who-called-this-stock-market-selloff-says-its-not-over-yet-2018-02-07-1210308
With regard to PPH - seems like we have a lot of speculative bulls in this stock and they've mostly been very quiet the last few days (including me!) which is not a good sign. I hope I'm wrong and if I'm right, I can still see PPH at higher levels in a year from. Is bit it may be painful in the meantime. It is horrible watching counted profit leech away in a grinding, drawn-out correction. I've been there.
Good luck.
Last edited by gbogo; 08-02-2018 at 07:03 AM.
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08-02-2018, 08:54 AM
#1432
Hope those who do the tithing thing through Push haven’t lost heaps on the market crash ....might reduce their giving meaning less ACMR for Push
Last edited by winner69; 08-02-2018 at 09:05 AM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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08-02-2018, 09:00 AM
#1433
I'm actually pleasantly surprised how well pushpay has been holding up since the announcement tbh
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08-02-2018, 09:05 AM
#1434
Originally Posted by JeremyALD
I'm actually pleasantly surprised how well pushpay has been holding up since the announcement tbh
Good recovery yesterday from 365 eh
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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08-02-2018, 09:33 AM
#1435
Amen
Originally Posted by JeremyALD
I'm actually pleasantly surprised how well pushpay has been holding up since the announcement tbh
You read these threads and you actually can see people talking themselves into buying high and selling low. As Warren Buffet says, "if you're right about the "why" of a stock, don't worry too much about the "when." By all accounts, the way Pushpay measures progress is in a steady line going up. This method of measurement pushes the stock up when the company reports good progress and good news. This company will almost assuredly continue to do this in 2018. Nothing has changed about this thesis.
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08-02-2018, 10:19 AM
#1436
Originally Posted by cymonger
You read these threads and you actually can see people talking themselves into buying high and selling low. As Warren Buffet says, "if you're right about the "why" of a stock, don't worry too much about the "when." By all accounts, the way Pushpay measures progress is in a steady line going up. This method of measurement pushes the stock up when the company reports good progress and good news. This company will almost assuredly continue to do this in 2018. Nothing has changed about this thesis.
I'm with you on this cymonger. Clearly a stock like PPH and many others will be severely affected when panic hits the market as we've seen in the last couple of days, even though it hasn't been anything like the silly screaming headlines in the media. I'm sure, as others have pointed out, we will have more volatility in the sharemarkets this year than last. But with Japan and Europe having joined USA and China with positive economic outlooks, I think we can chill a little. As long as PPH continues to deliver, I'm content. Of course one has remain vigilant, watch the market and consider one's position if stoploss markers are hit. I should add that I don't regard myself as a trader as I always invest with a longterm plan in mind.
Discl. Not losing sleep
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08-02-2018, 10:25 AM
#1437
Originally Posted by winner69
Hope those who do the tithing thing through Push haven’t lost heaps on the market crash ....might reduce their giving meaning less ACMR for Push
Tithing is generally based on income, not capital. So we should be safe.
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10-02-2018, 08:49 AM
#1438
Originally Posted by minimoke
Tithing is generally based on income, not capital. So we should be safe.
Good one
Hope the mid-western christians continue to be the ones who are pulling the strings behind Trumps back - if so we should be more than OK
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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10-02-2018, 09:18 AM
#1439
Member
Originally Posted by winner69
Good one
Hope the mid-western christians continue to be the ones who are pulling the strings behind Trumps back - if so we should be more than OK
Hi W69
Consider the following facts:
1. The US economy is doing well and trending up for average joe bloggs
2. Their share market acceleration has overstepped the rate of economic growth.
3. The US is extremely religious - even the notes have "in God we trust".
4. Most US churches have expanded since 9/11.
Consider therefore that PPH is currently well placed to capitalise on all of the above.
Regards
-dodgy
Holding over 20,000
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10-02-2018, 09:24 AM
#1440
Sad to say my stoploss marker was hit yesterday and I reluctantly dropped 1/3 of my PPH holding. Still up 31% on my average buy in price so not sure if this "discipline" was a good thing or not Still holding plenty
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