PPH - PushPay (Church/donor software.)

[iceman]

Silver ...yes SaaS valuations interesting

But isn’t a 30 times ACMR (run rate) for Push a bit excessive / optimistic

When assessing a suitable multiple does one need to consider that only a third of revenues applies to the software (the SaaS but), the rest being their cut of what’s processed.

Common practice is to include services and other add ons because they generally are seen as recurring. So fair enough to count these processing revenues in ACMR but there is a strong case to say that the 50% processing fees should be taken off (shown in the accounts as a cost of sales) - thus using a net ACMR figure as a base for assessing valuations based on multiples.

A $100m reported ACMR would only be about $70m if we did that. So currently share price reflects a multiple of about 10.

I think PPH is extremely difficult to value at this stage as sentiment when/if listed on the NASDAQ will have a major influence. Meanwhile here is food for thought.
(1USD approx DKK 6.25) Nets seems to have very limited revenue growth over the last 4 years, EBIDTA about USD 420M in 2016 (NPAT USD 160M) and is valued at USD 5.3 BILLION by private equity guys !!!!!:

https://www.reuters.com/article/lega...-idUSKCN1C02H1

https://investor.nets.eu/financial-information

[Beagle]

The hound reckons this stock is many investors best chance for 2018 to bark up a storm on their portfolio. With a Nasdaq listing highly likely in late 2018 / early 2019 to crystalize serious value...and then lets not forget about the company's organic growth in the meantime.

[winner69]

I think PPH is extremely difficult to value at this stage as sentiment when/if listed on the NASDAQ will have a major influence. Meanwhile here is food for thought.
(1USD approx DKK 6.25) Nets seems to have very limited revenue growth over the last 4 years and EBIDTA only about USD 420k in 2016 (NPAT USD 160k), yet is valued at USD 5.3 BILLION by private equity guys !!!!!:

https://www.reuters.com/article/lega...-idUSKCN1C02H1

https://investor.nets.eu/financial-information

Interesting ...but I get confused when Europeans use commas where we us points.....so hard to understand the financials you linked

Reuters article says - The price on offer from the U.S. buyout firm implies a valuation for Nets of 13 times 2018 enterprise-value-to-EBITDA, in line with the sector average, UBS wrote in a research note.

And yahoo finance stats say current price reflects a price/sales ratio of 4.3

Such multiples wouldn’t make Push even a billion dollar company


So maybe this Nets is very much bigger than Push

[winner69]

The hound reckons this stock is many investors best chance for 2018 to bark up a storm on their portfolio. With a Nasdaq listing highly likely in late 2018 / early 2019 to crystalize serious value...and then lets not forget about the company's organic growth in the meantime.

So a case of fundamentals don’t really matter eh

It’s like taking a lotto ticket but you will win a prize no matter what ......might be a little prize but could be the jackpot ...but you won’t lose no matter what

I love punting and betting on Push is just that ....pity it takes so long to get the payout ....at least with WINX it’s only a few minutes

Buying heaps more then Beagle? Better bet than SUM others

[iceman]

Interesting ...but I get confused when Europeans use commas where we us points.....so hard to understand the financials you linked

Reuters article says - The price on offer from the U.S. buyout firm implies a valuation for Nets of 13 times 2018 enterprise-value-to-EBITDA, in line with the sector average, UBS wrote in a research note.

And yahoo finance stats say current price reflects a price/sales ratio of 4.3

Such multiples wouldn’t make Push even a billion dollar company


So maybe this Nets is very much bigger than Push

You are correct winner. The comma confused me and I've corrected the earlier post. I think this is still a pretty spectacular valuation for a company that seems to have reached maturity and has not grown revenue in any meaningful way since 2013 !

[winner69]

You are correct winner. The comma confused me and I've corrected the earlier post. I think this is still a pretty spectacular valuation for a company that seems to have reached maturity and has not grown revenue in any meaningful way since 2013 !

I did notice one thing from those links you put up

Other ‘analysts’ do show a net revenue figure (after allowing for processing costs) just like I was suggesting earlier post

In Push case $100m becomes about $70m

[Nigelk]

Big business this church giving ...even have big Summits on how to do it better and better

Push seem to play a big part

https://echurch.com/summit/

That's because E-Church is a Pushpay business

[Nigelk]

Silver ...yes SaaS valuations interesting

But isn’t a 30 times ACMR (run rate) for Push a bit excessive / optimistic

When assessing a suitable multiple does one need to consider that only a third of revenues applies to the software (the SaaS but), the rest being their cut of what’s processed.

Common practice is to include services and other add ons because they generally are seen as recurring. So fair enough to count these processing revenues in ACMR but there is a strong case to say that the 50% processing fees should be taken off (shown in the accounts as a cost of sales) - thus using a net ACMR figure as a base for assessing valuations based on multiples.

A $100m reported ACMR would only be about $70m if we did that. So currently share price reflects a multiple of about 10.

Why would you exclude processing fees? It's recurring revenue as much as subscription fees and a core part of their offering. Others wouldn't exclude this for a bank or credit card company.

[winner69]

Why would you exclude processing fees? It's recurring revenue as much as subscription fees and a core part of their offering. Others wouldn't exclude this for a bank or credit card company.

I wasn't suggestinng excluding processing income in full (yes it is recurring) but saying maybe the processing costs (the cut and costs Visa / Mastercard etc take) be taken into account to give a net processing income. After all that is all Push get.

The cut that Visa / Mastercard take is just under 60% so in big picture quite significant

[Faker]

Push's getting smashed really hard. Whether it's profit taking or something else idk. To my mind there are quite a few things to look forward to in 2018 including US listing. Happy holder.