PPH - PushPay (Church/donor software.)

[martinchnz1]

Sometimes a stock really wants to teach you a lesson. But sometimes I just won't listen.

[drcjp]

ATM behaved very similarly to this in 2015/2016 and has never paid a dividend. Don't see no-one complaining about that now.
PPH is at a swing point in its development that, if executed well, could see it go to $10 plus (esp. if US listing proceeds).

I ballsed up on ATM and got out earlier than should have, despite nice profit. I intend not making the same mistake here.

[Ggcc]

ATM behaved very similarly to this in 2015/2016 and has never paid a dividend. Don't see no-one complaining about that now.
PPH is at a swing point in its development that, if executed well, could see it go to $10 plus (esp. if US listing proceeds).

I ballsed up on ATM and got out earlier than should have, despite nice profit. I intend not making the same mistake here.

A2 makes a big profit PPH does not yet

[see weed]

Ok, calm down everyone. The 15,000 sold at close was me. I bought too many in the last 3 weeks with all the hype. I think I'm down over $25,000 at the moment. Am selling biggish chunks and buying them back again at a lower price for tax reasons. Did the same 15 months ago with AIR taking it down to $1.715, and then it went up again and made big profit. So keep cool to after school. ps drcjp above is right, it happen to ATM in the past lots of times. PPH is only in a temporary down until it goes up again. But be ready for the up, it could happen anytime. sw reporting from Piha

[hardt]

There is nothing fickle about preserving ones capital and I am not sure why you find it amusing

The idea that a 10-15% consolidation after a fundamentally driven rally receiving such a bearish reaction and people beginning to line up at the exit is indeed amusing.

Sentiment on here seems to be dictated by the price movements as opposed to the underlying business at hand.

If you have trouble valuing fast growing loss makers, don't touch em.
SKO/PPH/XRO to name a few... would you look at that, they seem to offer the best returns as well... also like to add A2 milk which not too long ago was making a loss.

For reference XRO ACMR price multiple = 10.9x on the back of 30-40% growth in a fiercely competitive space. ( disc; I own XRO )

PPH.NZ	3Q18A	3Q19F^40%	3Q19F^80%
ACMR	149.62m	209.5m	269.3m
Multiple	6.97x	5.06x	3.87x

[winner69]

Interesting emotions being shown on this thread of late.

Sent a link to the thread to my friend at the LSE. He’s into Behavioural Economics and always on the lookout for raw data / material as to how investors think and behave

[Leftfield]

A2 makes a big profit PPH does not yet

ATM has not always made a profit. Interestingly, some of the traders who exited PPH recently are also ones that (I recall) exited ATM 'too early' (their words) ie when it wasn't making profits while making huge sales advances.... Investors who took a longer term view on ATM are now up 1600% or more.

IMHO the long term view is also makes much more tax sense. I personally struggle with Sea Weed's logic of selling 15,000 "for tax reasons." When it comes to tax I prefer the KISS principle, and long term tax free capital gains.

Clearly recent comments re ACMR growth have spooked some, so the PPH SP has dropped/corrected, whether this is temporary correction or a sign of a longer term malaise, time will tell. However, my gutometer tells me that PPH have a record of delivering what they forecast and given the prospect of a USA listing I suspect management will be extremely focused on making this a successful reality.

It's going to be interesting to watch PPH over the next 12 months.

[couta1]

ATM has not always made a profit. Interestingly, some of the traders who exited PPH recently are also ones that (I recall) exited ATM 'too early' (their words) ie when it wasn't making profits while making huge sales advances.... Investors who took a longer term view on ATM are now up 1600% or more.

IMHO the long term view is also makes much more tax sense. I personally struggle with Sea Weed's logic of selling 15,000 "for tax reasons." When it comes to tax I prefer the KISS principle, and long term tax free capital gains.

Clearly recent comments re ACMR growth have spooked some, so the PPH SP has dropped/corrected, whether this is temporary correction or a sign of a longer term malaise, time will tell. However, my gutometer tells me that PPH have a record of delivering what they forecast and given the prospect of a USA listing I suspect management will be extremely focused on making this a successful reality.

It's going to be interesting to watch PPH over the next 12 months.

I think going long is best for most people but doesn't suit some personality types, going long versus trading is like comparing a flat white to a double Expresso, for many being constantly active in the market provides a lot of satisfaction and provides constant interest rather than boredom. I understand what see weed is doing and why, in his situation it is advantageous.

[Snoopy]

Even with share price down about 10% and an appreciating NZD PPH is still trading on EV/Gross Margin multiple of about 18.

Pretty outrageous really looking at global valuations

Let’s not forget last big cap raise was at $1.51 last July. Targets haven’t really changed since then so an extraordinary amount of Optimism about the future has driven the share price to $4 plus.

Little wonder it’s falling back ....might even go to $3 and evev then those who bought in at $1.51 six months ago will have doubled their money

PPH is unlike most of the glory shares talked about here, as it relies purely on capital SP movements because it doesn't make a profit or pay a dividend and therefore doesn't qualify for any of the 'investor' ideals that many see as important decision criteria to put their money on the line

Just saying. See you in a year or two when you come back, but in the meantime the savvy traders will have made killing on PPH, more more volatile the better, while the investors (who hold) will have a very decent profit to justify their confidence and commitment.

Cheers
BAA

I must say that reading this thread does give a fascinating insight into fear and greed.

Despite reading this thread, I don't follow the company itself closely because I am one of those 'old school' investors that BAA refers too who demands that a company 'makes a profit' before my investment hound's nose goes into action. I do appreciate that software companies can grow quickly and that new customers and incremental sales can turn a loss making venture quickly into a profitable one. (this is in contrast to something like ATM which needs physical product to sell, so I know for sure that A2 milk production cannot be ramped up to meet ATM investor expectations., which is how I know for sure that ATM is currently overvalued). But I also know that what seems to be the 'best' software in a market segment can still be usurped, and PPH shareholders could be left with nothing. So what we have here is a classic 'high risk' 'high return' investment scenario.

As Winner has noted the 'EV/Gross Margin multiple' of about 18 (a new statistic that has been invented for companies that make no money and so can't be analysed using traditional metrics) is above the industry average. This has become proof enough, to the PPH disciples, that nothing will go wrong and that as long as the share price keeps going up, then no fundamental analysis is required.

On no news. I have given up growth tech companies who grow without profit. Maybe you should do the same...... unless you are trading of course.

To reinterpret the comment that Ggcc made, the idea that you can have growth without profit is a relatively new investor concept. 'Growth' used to be synonymous with 'growth in profit' and I find it somewhat disconcerting that this old rule no longer applies. As with all investment bubbles, what tends to happen is that new investors find that the old rules do still apply, but only after all after the inevitable crash. I am not saying PPH will crash because amongst all the losers there will also be winners. But sorting out who the winners and losers will be in advance is a problem to this FA investor.

If I was to invest in PPH, I would be looking not for a path to breakeven cashflow but a path to actual profit. Then when investors find how small the profit really is, what sort of 'multiple deflation' investors can expect as a consequence. Of course as with all 'speculative investments' no serious study as to what the profit might be is ever carried out. And then 'investors' are 'surprised' when the share price collapses.

I will save my next post on this thread for when PPH makes a profit. I guess that means, very likely, this is my last post on this thread?

SNOOPY

[iceman]

From the 9th Jan


Attachment 9422

Any particular reason to select 9 Jan 2018 ?