PPH - PushPay (Church/donor software.)

[winner69]

Is this applying the "greater fool" strategy?

Have problems to find big enough (and still credible) numbers to feed my DCF to justify the current share price ... but maybe I am not creative enough?

With you there on the DCF ....at best with outrageous assumptions I struggle to get $3

But there are ‘greater fools’ out there ...I hope in the USA

Your creativity pretty good BP ......somebody once said most creativity is much about doing the actual work than it is about being a frickin genius

We better be careful here mate ....the believers might turn on us.

[winner69]

If it helps Ord Minnet has upped their target price to $4.53 AUD, source: HC forum.

That’s good ...hope others up their targets

Need all the help we can get

[Baa_Baa]

Bang on the money.
[snip] It's likely this is the top and the little upside potential isn't worth the risk.

TA suggests the turn away from a (perfect) triple top high will test the horizontal support low's around 3.68-3.70, maybe even tomorrow (it's been a sideways range-trade since the January high suggesting uncertainty).

If that breaks down, 3.3-3.4 support is strong. That's how it goes with strong growth stocks, there's multiple strong technical supports around the previous consolidations where after it boosted higher.

The results posted aren't encouraging for the fundamentals which the market has priced in quickly, perhaps surprisingly quickly for the devoted and not-so-nimble, but that doesn't suggest that a rout is imminent, far from it.

The question is how far sentiment against faltering fundamentals will take this down as there are so many bullish price points offering SP support (buyer confidence) below here, a full-on reversal is unlikely imho unless an external event compounds negative sentiment, which is anyones guess in this toppy market climate.

BAA

[Leftfield]

TA suggests the turn away from a (perfect) triple top high will test the horizontal support low's around 3.68-3.70, maybe even tomorrow (it's been a sideways range-trade since the January high suggesting uncertainty).

If that breaks down, 3.3-3.4 support is strong. That's how it goes with strong growth stocks, there's multiple strong technical supports around the previous consolidations where after it boosted higher.

BAA

Totally agree Baa Baa. My assessment also. As a result I've de-risked and realised some gains by selling a third of my holdings.

Leaves me with a lower av SP for my remaining holding, cashed up and ready for the next update.

[winner69]

If it helps Ord Minnet has upped their target price to $4.53 AUD, source: HC forum.

Would say that Ord Minnet love this margin increasing from 54% to 64% talk ....and probably assumed that that’s the rate going forward into the future

[Beagle]

ACMR ended up more or less in line with what I was expecting.
I continue to hold the view that the low hanging fruit (big churches) has already been picked.
Its clear the growth rate is slowing.
Its not clear how they will address this, in fact a recent print edition Herald article this week suggested they would no longer focus on small medium churches.
Perhaps they will break even in 4Q 2018, perhaps they will miss yet again. I think on the balance of probabilities they will miss again and in Q1 2019 they will still be cash flow negative remembering that Q4 is their peak revenue quarter.

If they float this year as planned its an absolute lottery how U.S. investors will perceive their future prospects. I note this is right on the brink of breaking down through the 100 day MA. I wish investors well but this is too speculative for me.

[Ghost Monkey]

Perhaps they will break even in 4Q 2018, perhaps they will miss yet again. I think on the balance of probabilities they will miss again and in Q1 2019 they will still be cash flow negative remembering that Q4 is their peak revenue quarter.

I thought PPH had continually brought forward estimates of when they would break even as well as reach $100m ACMR, not missed said targets?

[iceman]

I thought PPH had continually brought forward estimates of when they would break even as well as reach $100m ACMR, not missed said targets?

No, they missed their target on a break even on cash flow basis and pushed it out 12 months.

[BlackPeter]

I thought PPH had continually brought forward estimates of when they would break even as well as reach $100m ACMR, not missed said targets?

From memory there was a time when they predicted to turn cash flow positive in FY 2017. Looks like they changed their mind on this somewhere on the way - they still are writing losses.

Now - I am sure, there was a good reason for this delay, there always is . However - I would not bet against the beagles inkling that they might find another good reason not to be cash flow positive come end of FY 2018.

[iceman]

From memory there was a time when they predicted to turn cash flow positive in FY 2017. Looks like they changed their mind on this somewhere on the way - they still are writing losses.

Now - I am sure, there was a good reason for this delay, there always is . However - I would not bet against the beagles inkling that they might find another good reason not to be cash flow positive come end of FY 2018.

Hey BP, you didn't copy that response from early in the DIL or ATM threads did you ? Reminds me of that discussion way back when, like quite a few comments on here of late :-)
Not saying they're wrong (in fact agree with many) but believe only time will tell when one invests in relative startups like PPH, DIL and ATM early on.