Interesting muted market reaction today.......perhaps the market is not convinced by the 'good' results?
Disappointing that the SP always dips after an announcement that they're continuing to meet targets. The Church of the Highlands (as reported by NBR) announcement is great news.
Not just 52K potential new end users, but validation that they're attractive to huge churches and they now have another great name on the client list to attract others.
Disappointing that the SP always dips after an announcement that they're continuing to meet targets. The Church of the Highlands (as reported by NBR) announcement is great news.
Not just 52K potential new end users, but validation that they're attractive to huge churches and they now have another great name on the client list to attract others.
I agree that this is a great news and no doubt PPH is a great company.
It is just that I am not sure how you can justify the MC of ~$1b with the annual revenue of about $41m and 35% of increase in revenue compared to the same period last year. I would not value them at ~$1b when they are not even making profits.....
I agree that this is a great news and no doubt PPH is a great company.
It is just that I am not sure how you can justify the MC of ~$1b with the annual revenue of about $41m and 35% of increase in revenue compared to the same period last year. I would not value them at ~$1b when they are not even making profits.....
Don't know where you're getting annual revenue of $41M from. That was their revenue just in the last quarter alone. The December quarter is seasonally higher (Thanksgiving and Christmas) but ARR run rate today by my calculation is still NZD over $120M. That makes market cap about 7.5X revenue. Pretty good when compared to peers considering that they're now cashflow positive and still growing well.
Don't know where you're getting annual revenue of $41M from. That was their revenue just in the last quarter alone. The December quarter is seasonally higher (Thanksgiving and Christmas) but ARR run rate today by my calculation is still NZD over $120M. That makes market cap about 7.5X revenue. Pretty good when compared to peers considering that they're now cashflow positive and still growing well.
Hey I'm sorry, was just looking at the figure on their website. Revenue for the recent 6 months was 44m USD which is equivalent to 65m NZD so the revenue for the whole year could become up to 130-150m NZD. This is looking much better but still the current MC still looks quite high to me with the current growth rate.
Just see what happened to GTK recently when they released results....
Hey I'm sorry, was just looking at the figure on their website. Revenue for the recent 6 months was 44m USD which is equivalent to 65m NZD so the revenue for the whole year could become up to 130-150m NZD. This is looking much better but still the current MC still looks quite high to me with the current growth rate.
Just see what happened to GTK recently when they released results....
They say full year revenues are going to be be between US$97.5 million to US$100.5 million
Remember that a fair chunk of that revenue goes directly to the likes of MasterCard etc.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
mmh - not much of a growth share recently - isn't it?
Attachment 10380
just to clarify - PPH is the blue line, the yellowish line is the NZX50 in comparison
Maybe the market starts to realise that it needs more than $100m revenue and the promise of a earnings breakeven to deserve a 1$b marketcap ... even if the revenue CAGR still looks interesting (>100). At the end of the day only the bottom line matters.
Last edited by BlackPeter; 08-03-2019 at 10:47 AM.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
With a high growth, negative PE company like this, I prefer to track the Price to Revenue at Margin. By Revenue at Margin I mean applying the gross margin to the revenue per share. I use estimated forward revenue, where possible based on a company's guidance. Recent figures for some NZ companies are:
XRO 31.6
PPH 10.2
IKE 3.2
I cannot find the margin for PLX and PYS but using Price to Revenue, I get
PYS 38.0 (doubling of revenue assumed over the next 12 months)
XRO 26.2
PPH 6.1
PLX 2.3
IKE 2.1
PPH shows similar characteristics to XRO in its earlier years but has reached cashflow positive much more quickly. It is not cheap on the above measures but neither is it overly expensive. The high growth rate is continuing.
PLX and IKE look cheap. PLX has begun returning a profit but I see it risky in terms of competition. IKE is close to being cashflow positive and I really like the way that it has established a niche in USA that others will find hard to break into because of the standard for pole analysis that is being adopted by big players like AT&T and which has been introduced by IKE. PYS stands out as being hopelessly overvalued, even allowing for it to be early stage (I have estimated the revenue doubling after all).
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Originally Posted by Left field
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