PPH - PushPay (Church/donor software.)

[alokdhir]

I assume there will be some interim announcements on perfunctory steps given the initial release was light on detail. Factual information, like has the bidder requested & being granted access to a dataroom to conduct due diligence, is there a timetable to reconfirm the indicative price, is the board getting an independent report completed, is it one party or more, etc. And all that before they even say what the price, or might be after the bidder completes DD.

I have my views on what a successful price would need to be to get a transaction completed. But that is tempered by the history of the company, we don't have a good feel for what is happening at the customer level, etc.

looking forward to learning more too!

Whats your estimated price possible ....please share with us your thoughts ...it should be helpful .

IMO serious bidders need ready for excess of $ 1.85-2.10 range

[sb9]

Whats your estimated price possible ....please share with us your thoughts ...it should be helpful .

IMO serious bidders need ready for excess of $ 1.85-2.10 range

Gotta be at least $2 for any serious consideration by big boys imo...

[Muse]

Whats your estimated price possible ....please share with us your thoughts ...it should be helpful .

IMO serious bidders need ready for excess of $ 1.85-2.10 range

I'm not sure i'd feel comfortable giving a specific price - this is very much a DYOR situation

but I'll frame my thoughts for you

the timing of the offer feels very opportunistic to me. The SP has just been wholloped over the last 6 months. some of that is macro/sentiment, some of that is company specific issues (the recent insider trading allegation, some silence over customer numbers). Market was pretty skeptical about earnings - business gave guidance a few months ago which the mkt didn't seem to believe (and now PPH has reconfirmed and narrowed the range).

So I can easily see someone coming in saying this is in such an entrenched downtrend - we'll wait for that to continue and when it looks like bottom out we will chuck in a stock standard 30% premium.

The broker average is well above that. PPH has even been a couple of the brokers main picks for FY22 and consistently been described oversold, etc. So with that backdrop, I see it hard for the board and an independent adviser to accept an opportunistic bid. and if rejected could just see the price fall back down again.

On the other hand maybe the bid is a lot more. Perhaps its somewhere near (+/-) the average target price. then they still have to get through due diligence. and price in whatever they find, if anything. and there is always a risk the bidder could walk away after DD (or goldman sachs could earn their keep and attract other bidders)

If its opportunistic I expect the board would decline to grant the bidder access to DD and discontinue engagement. and I hope they'd inform shareholders about that. if its serious they'll grant access.

so lets see what happens as the company goes through the different stage gates

[alokdhir]

I'm not sure i'd feel comfortable giving a specific price - this is very much a DYOR situation

but I'll frame my thoughts for you

the timing of the offer feels very opportunistic to me. The SP has just been wholloped over the last 6 months. some of that is macro/sentiment, some of that is company specific issues (the recent insider trading allegation, some silence over customer numbers). Market was pretty skeptical about earnings - business gave guidance a few months ago which the mkt didn't seem to believe (and now PPH has reconfirmed and narrowed the range).

So I can easily see someone coming in saying this is in such an entrenched downtrend - we'll wait for that to continue and when it looks like bottom out we will chuck in a stock standard 30% premium.

The broker average is well above that. PPH has even been a couple of the brokers main picks for FY22 and consistently been described oversold, etc. So with that backdrop, I see it hard for the board and an independent adviser to accept an opportunistic bid. and if rejected could just see the price fall back down again.

On the other hand maybe the bid is a lot more. Perhaps its somewhere near (+/-) the average target price. then they still have to get through due diligence. and price in whatever they find, if anything. and there is always a risk the bidder could walk away after DD (or goldman sachs could earn their keep and attract other bidders)

If its opportunistic I expect the board would decline to grant the bidder access to DD and discontinue engagement. and I hope they'd inform shareholders about that. if its serious they'll grant access.

so lets see what happens as the company goes through the different stage gates

Thanks for your thoughts

TBH they did mention " Multiple Offers " in the announcement ...also they appointing an advisor like Goldman also makes me believe its serious business not just brush aside kind of offer .

Hopefully FYR time on 11th May they may let us know more ...Not disclosing offer prices or valuations makes it even more mysterious

[Muse]

Thanks for your thoughts

TBH they did mention " Multiple Offers " in the announcement ...also they appointing an advisor like Goldman also makes me believe its serious business not just brush aside kind of offer .

Hopefully FYR time on 11th May they may let us know more ...Not disclosing offer prices or valuations makes it even more mysterious

I'm not sure they said "multiple offers" but they did speak in plurals. That would seem to imply multiple but I wouldn't be surprised if its a standard thing to speak in plurals when even one "offer" or "approach" or "expression" is received. Its sorta in the best interest for shareholders to have the board talk in plurals - you don't want them announcing there is just one offer - you want the bidder to be unsure if there are others. Anyway, I'm speculating here.

Even if it was 'just' an opportunistic bid of say 15-30% that had a low chance of success they would probably still have to appoint an adviser to give them advice, as they have some fiduciary duties. If it was one of those ridiculous lowball offers from the days of old (what his name something whimp) that was like 0-10% higher than spot they would just dismiss it outright.

Goldmans may be engaging right now with the potential bidder(s) - doing some quick/prompt analysis and valuation work for the board - and then saying to the bidder well you have to be at this price to get access to due diligence. and the company would go and get an independent expert report done for shareholders when/if the bid became a real thing.

I suspect the board wants some work done first before it decides on next steps. and then informing shareholders where to from here

[alokdhir]

I'm not sure they said "multiple offers" but they did speak in plurals. That would seem to imply multiple but I wouldn't be surprised if its a standard thing to speak in plurals when even one "offer" or "approach" or "expression" is received. Its sorta in the best interest for shareholders to have the board talk in plurals - you don't want them announcing there is just one offer - you want the bidder to be unsure if there are others. Anyway, I'm speculating here.

Even if it was 'just' an opportunistic bid of say 15-30% that had a low chance of success they would probably still have to appoint an adviser to give them advice, as they have some fiduciary duties. If it was one of those ridiculous lowball offers from the days of old (what his name something whimp) that was like 0-10% higher than spot they would just dismiss it outright.

Goldmans may be engaging right now with the potential bidder(s) - doing some quick/prompt analysis and valuation work for the board - and then saying to the bidder well you have to be at this price to get access to due diligence. and the company would go and get an independent expert report done for shareholders when/if the bid became a real thing.

I suspect the board wants some work done first before it decides on next steps. and then informing shareholders where to from here

" Pushpay Holdings Limited (NZSX:PPH, ASX:PPH, ‘Pushpay’ or ‘the Company’) advises it has recently received unsolicited, non-binding and conditional expressions of interest or approaches from third parties looking to acquire the Company. The Board has appointed Goldman Sachs to assist as financial advisor. There is no certainty that these expressions of interest or approaches will result in any transaction. "

Yes all are in plural so I assumed multiple offers as thats what they are implying IMO

So we should have some clarity on 11th about what ahead and how lucky we can get ...lol

[BlackPeter]

" Pushpay Holdings Limited (NZSX:PPH, ASX:PPH, ‘Pushpay’ or ‘the Company’) advises it has recently received unsolicited, non-binding and conditional expressions of interest or approaches from third parties looking to acquire the Company. The Board has appointed Goldman Sachs to assist as financial advisor. There is no certainty that these expressions of interest or approaches will result in any transaction. "

Yes all are in plural so I assumed multiple offers as thats what they are implying IMO

So we should have some clarity on 11th about what ahead and how lucky we can get ...lol

So - you are saying they received several expressions of interest or several approaches from third parties, i.e. several of one and none of the other? Or could it be just one expression and several approaches? Obviously, given the "or" it could be as well several approaches, but no expression (or vice versa) and maybe it could be in this case as well just one expression and no approach, couldn't it?

However it may be ... good luck to holders, I think this is a share where a get out of prison card could really be beneficial ...

[alokdhir]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...603/369968.pdf

I am surprised at this late substantial holder notice ...it began on 29th Dec 2021 ...released to public via NZX announcement on 5th May 2022 !!!

Any rules about time limit of such notifications ? Why suddenly they woke up ...maybe something to do with takeover news !!!

[BlackPeter]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...603/369968.pdf

I am surprised at this late substantial holder notice ...it began on 29th Dec 2021 ...released to public via NZX announcement on 5th May 2022 !!!

Any rules about time limit of such notifications ? Why suddenly they woke up ...maybe something to do with takeover news !!!

Maybe a rounding error - 5.03% is not much above the magic 5%? These things happen if you use a slide ruler instead of a table calculator ...

Otherwise - yes, they need to notify within a few days (I think two, but not sure) ...

[winner69]

Could be badly worded …like been buying from December 31

Got a few extra the other day and went over 5%

Otherwise been naughty …. because it was higher than 5.03% back then because been some new shares issued