PPH - PushPay (Church/donor software.)

[Leftfield]

Glad all the wise punters on Sharetrader have already got out of Pushpay.

Thanks - I'll take that as a compliment!

Unfortunately, While I no longer own PPH shares, I chose way back for my 2018 share picking competition picks and am 'locked in' ....for better or worse.

[RupertBear]

Glad all the wise punters on Sharetrader have already got out of Pushpay.

Oh dear the unwise Bear still has a few but I did ditch most of them at $3.70 after reading peoples comments on here and doing my own research as well

[dreamcatcher]

Oh dear the unwise Bear still has a few but I did ditch most of them at $3.70 after reading peoples comments on here and doing my own research as well

Bring out the honey wine little bear as I also am still here and we are surrounded by some very large bears looking for our honey...... time will tell if we are wise or unwise

[RupertBear]

Bring out the honey wine little bear as I also am still here and we are surrounded by some very large bears looking for our honey...... time will tell if we are wise or unwise

Good to know the Bear has company! I didnt hear the conference call but maybe if I had I would have sold out like many others have. I guess the Bear is still a believer and as you say time will tell.....

[Baa_Baa]

Rhetorical question rough answer

Let’s say 170 June 17 was a solid base (consensus F19 revenue forecast ~$110m) and a high of 445

So currently just above 50% fib mark ....and heading to 310 which is the 50% mark.

Next step down is 61.8% retracement at 270 and and then we may as well go to 100% retracement which seems to tie in with what I reckon it’s worth on a net sales multiple ( and remember PPH are forecasting F19 revenues ~$100m which is what punters were expecting when share price was 170 last year

Jeez, Fibonacci things can be spooky.

Spooky Fibs yes for sure, we know that, a sentiment indicator? Surely it won't pull back that far, it would be a disaster. I voted in Dec 2017 for PPH in the comp, but I don't hold stocks that are out of favour and killing capital, like this one currently is. So not a holder at present.

[sb9]

Bring out the honey wine little bear as I also am still here and we are surrounded by some very large bears looking for our honey...... time will tell if we are wise or unwise

Upcoming quarter (thanksgiving and Christmas) season is crucial for them where they need to show solid turnaround in numbers. I honestly hope they do.

[winner69]

Upcoming quarter (thanksgiving and Christmas) season is crucial for them where they need to show solid turnaround in numbers. I honestly hope they do.

They have already signaled that ‘solid turnaround’ in numbers along with a huge margin expansion

Must already be built into the current price ...or price drifting down to what’s seen as more reasonable.

[mjoass]

Hi everyone,

We released a podcast that discussed Pushpay (along with Catapult ASX:CAT and Dicker Data ASX: DDR) a couple of days ago.

If anyone gives it a listen I would be interested in your take on the thesis: https://soundcloud.com/twmpodcast/th...keys-episode-2 (also available on iTunes and other platforms https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/...t/id1441602956)

Best,
Matt

[BlackPeter]

Hi everyone,

We released a podcast that discussed Pushpay (along with Catapult ASX:CAT and Dicker Data ASX: DDR) a couple of days ago.

If anyone gives it a listen I would be interested in your take on the thesis: https://soundcloud.com/twmpodcast/th...keys-episode-2 (also available on iTunes and other platforms https://itunes.apple.com/au/podcast/...t/id1441602956)

Best,
Matt

Hi Matt, welcome to the forum and great for owning up (instead of just providing a link about PPH ...).

Re the podcast - I did listen in for something like 5 min with full attention span and than another 10 minutes doing other things in the background. Obviously - I can't comment on the 30 minutes I didn't listen to. Am I right that the whole thing would take more than 45 minutes?

From a positive perspective: the three guys have quite pleasant and interesting sounding voices - well in tune with probably most radio programms (however - I only listen regularly to Radio NZ, everything else would be an accident) and they do discuss next to a lot of time consuming chit chat issues interesting and relevant for investors.

However - I was wondering, who your intended audience is. If it is experienced investors, than yes, I did hear some (two or three?) interesting points - but honestly - the gems are well hidden in a flood of irrelevant noise.

If you are adressing however people who use radio just as background noise, than yes, the noise is fine, but your audience would probaly prefer a bit more music and a bit less information about finance.

Personally I would prefer a much shorter podcast with much more relevant information per time unit. A good podcast can address everyting as long as it does not consume more than 15 minutes .. remember - time is money ...

Anyway - just my 2 cents. Other age groups, cultural backgrounds and genders might have a totally different view. Good luck with whatever your business model is ...

Ah yes - and do I think whether PPH is at an infliction point? I wouldn't have a clue. However - I do have a preconceived view on PPH based on previous fundamental analysis (I am sure there is some stuff in the earlier parts of this thread), and while the SP might in the short term do whatever SP's do ... long term are they IMHO not just risky (due to quality issues I see in board and management) but as well (even when ignoring these risks) still overvalued.

[mjoass]

Haha, thank you for your thoughts Black Peter. We might need to make "the gems are well hidden in a flood of irrelevant noise" our new tagline. Podcasts aren't for everyone

For those that listen past the 5 minute mark we discuss Pushpay in a fair bit of detail after chatting about inflection points more broadly, and I'd be interested in any thoughts on the thesis.