PPH - PushPay (Church/donor software.)

[sb9]

$500m market cap within 3 years. [/SIZE]You read it here first.

Added about $110mln to market cap since that post a week ago, currently sitting at $2.2bln and looking stronger to go higher.

[Nigelk]

Ogg - 16 months ago
"Wake me up if it gets to $5" (that's $1.25 today after the split).

I love it how every PPH share price increase must eat him up even more while the rest of us just keep getting richer.

[winner69]

Added about $110mln to market cap since that post a week ago, currently sitting at $2.2bln and looking stronger to go higher.

A 2 billion company pretty good eh

Wonder if Sparky the Clown still holding. Sparky was one of early big holders in Push

Would have made tens of millions on Push

[sb9]

Big wall of resistance put at 2.10, wonder if it'll be broken today...

[winner69]

Forbar scathing report on Pushpay the other day

Said they squandered the greatest ever year and underperformed badly.

[Baa_Baa]

Forbar scathing report on Pushpay the other day

Said they squandered the greatest ever year and underperformed badly.

A concerning commentary for sure, especially after the early money have all bailed for squizillions leaving remaining shareholders carrying the can.

Hope it works out ok, but these borkers don't put out derogatory commentary for no reason.

[sb9]

A concerning commentary for sure, especially after the early money have all bailed for squizillions leaving remaining shareholders carrying the can.

Hope it works out ok, but these borkers don't put out derogatory commentary for no reason.

Yet, same analyst was bullish a year earlier dated 23Jul20 with below titled report..

“Pushpay Holdings Ltd (PPH) The Gift That Keeps On Giving...
BY JAMIE FOULKES”

I take Guru Analyst’s call with grain of salt as they have hidden agenda and especially timing that just ahead of FY results. I guess all will be revealed on 12th May.

[Baa_Baa]

Yet, same analyst was bullish a year earlier dated 23Jul20 with below titled report..

“Pushpay Holdings Ltd (PPH) The Gift That Keeps On Giving...
BY JAMIE FOULKES”

I take Guru Analyst’s call with grain of salt as they have hidden agenda and especially timing that just ahead of FY results. I guess all will be revealed on 12th May.

A lot has changed since then, eye on the game. Don’t get caught in the story

[Sir Ten]

Not sure these reports are always worth the paper they're written on (probably more a reflection on the massively bullish initiation report FB put out), but exec summary of Craigs report released today copied below.

Pretty modest price target of ~$1.91 with a lack of obvious catalysts, suggests to me holders are taking a punt on further uncertain growth while wearing the costs of seeking it out. Ignoring Ogg for a second, but only a second, what's your upside view?

My current view is that this business is now largely reaching (has reached?) maturity and the growth opportunities from here on out aren't going to move the SP by the %'s we've seen historically. Will probably look to take some $ off the table and reallocate elsewhere - Bitcoin anyone?

Market share trends remain positive

Our survey of the Top 100 US Churches finds that PPH 1) remains thedominant player with 56% share, a slight increase since our initial survey inSep 2018, and 2) has been successful at retaining its existing large Churchcustomers, with a SaaS best in class retention rate of 95%/yr, highlighting thestickiness of the product. We note that tithe.ly, PPH’s highest profile andfastest growing competitor 1) has not increased its market share amongstlarge Churches (suggesting its growth is skewed to smaller Churches, thatPushpay has not targeted) and 2) has lifted its prices c10% since our firstsurvey, at the same time as Pushpay has reduced its prices c9%, so thatPushpay is now slightly cheaper than tithe.ly, suggesting price pressure willease in coming periods. While Pushpay's organic customer growth of c10%since Sep 2018 has been slow relative to its smaller competitors, it is in linewith the 12% growth delivered by Blackbaud (BLKB.NAS), which also targetsa primarily enterprise-level customer base.

Catholic market an attractive opportunity

In January Pushpay flagged that it was pursuing an opportunity to capturethe Catholic market, with a trial at a large diocese currently underway. Weestimate, supported by channel checks, that collection-plate donations to theCatholic Church total around US$5.1bn/yr, which is notably smaller than theProtestant TAM but represents a meaningful TAM relative to PPH’s currentprocessing run rate of cUS$7bn. Moreover, we see Pushpay as well positionedto take share, with a weak competitor set, low levels of digital penetrationcurrently, and a relatively concentrated set of key decision makers.

Looking for strong FY21 result; cautious on FY22

Data suggests that giving to US Churches has recovered in 2H21, following asofter 1H21. While this may be partly offset by a decline in digital share ofwallet from the "low 60s" over 1H21 (peak of c75% during full closure in April2020), most Churches were still partially closed in 2H21, which should supportPPH to deliver at the top end of its US$56-60m EBITDAF guidance range(CIPe: US$59m).Looking into FY22, however, we are cautious that digitalshare of wallet may re-trace further as Churches in the US fully re-open.Combined with additional opex of cUS$8m in FY22 to capture the Catholicopportunity, we expect EBITDAF to flatline at US$58m (vs consensusUS$69m), before resuming growth from FY23. With PPH trading in line withour revised TP of $1.91 (-12% mainly due to higher RFR), and on 41x FY22e PE,and a lack of obvious catalysts over the next 12 months, we retain Neutral.

[sb9]

Thanks for that Sir Ten.

On the other hand, as per poster on HC "Goldman Sachs has a $2.57 conviction BUY on PPH"

Not sure what's currency measure in there, NZ or AU. We'll surely know by this time next week who's right and who's not...