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Thread: PushPay

  1. #2421
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    .

    Tango..yes your "cream off the top" investment strategy is commonly used by investors and seems to work well..
    Re: TA...TA is a valuable entry/exit tool to have in your toolbox...Be-careful not to let the hindsight excuse blind you (pun). This is a big excuse anti-TAers use...When analysing charts you are dealing with the past up to the present day... Remember, both TA and FA disciplines use past to present data so it doesn't matter what investment discipline you use you always have this hindsight (past data) factor in play as a part of any future decisions.

    Back to investing strategies:..TA tends to be a variable term investing thing and a better rowing investment strategy tool when timing seems important..FA tends to be a longer term investing thing and better used as a sailing investment strategy tool..

    Simply put, during volatile times and bear market cycles a rowing strategy is best..During a bull market cycle a sailing strategy (e.g buy and hold) is best.
    Rowing V Sailing Investing

    Re: Pushpay investing..my method (disclaimer..do your own research to obtain what you personally happy with as an investing method) uses a rowing investment strategy for both Bull and Bear markets and the best tool for the job is the TA discipline..Why?.. In the past (using Hindsight) PPH which is a very fast growing companies has long hiatus price periods followed by sudden very large upward price correctional bursts..Looking ahead into the future, if there is a long bull market cycle in operation, holding capital in a stock that is in a hiatus period creates a capital opportunity loss as you miss out on big price rises elsewhere while waiting for PPH to do its breakout thing..So rowing with PPH is a better method during the long Bull Market cycles as well as the shorter Bear market cycles..

    All Company stocks have their own share price behaviour...(that's easily seen on charts) for example MFT (Mainfreight) has a very long term continual steady climb behaviour (disregard Covid bear) which the investor would obviously prefer use a sailing investment strategy, one being the very passive buy & hold strategy, another is the less passive accumulating dip buying...In MFT case the very passive buy & hold looks to be the best sailing investing strategy alternative...
    THANK YOU 🌟

    This is super helpful. In the past I had read books and done courses talking about the Buffett method which is basically buy a good business at a margin of safety price and then sit back and let the winners ride. More recently I saw someone who is a Buffett disciple use TA for entry and exit points, both for individual stocks and to get a sense of overall market trends, and a huge freaking light bulb went on. I could see that using that strategy I may leave some gains on the table but I dramatically reduce the risk of being caught out with big market dips and as you say there is an opportunity cost of letting it sit in a company going nowhere.

    For some reason I had a mental block about this idea of selling shares and then rebuying. Time for a change in strategy!

    Your post just added to my knowledge and reinforced the need sharpen my TA skills until I truly understand it!! 🌟

  2. #2422
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    Quote Originally Posted by tango View Post
    THANK YOU 🌟

    This is super helpful. In the past I had read books and done courses talking about the Buffett method which is basically buy a good business at a margin of safety price and then sit back and let the winners ride. More recently I saw someone who is a Buffett disciple use TA for entry and exit points, both for individual stocks and to get a sense of overall market trends, and a huge freaking light bulb went on. I could see that using that strategy I may leave some gains on the table but I dramatically reduce the risk of being caught out with big market dips and as you say there is an opportunity cost of letting it sit in a company going nowhere.

    For some reason I had a mental block about this idea of selling shares and then rebuying. Time for a change in strategy!

    Your post just added to my knowledge and reinforced the need sharpen my TA skills until I truly understand it!! 🌟
    The people that hate on TA are the ones who use it without fundamental endpoints / perspectives. If you blindly follow TA obviously you’ll lose money. But if you use it to position your holdings and try to gauge when the holding will be more of an opportunity cost than gain in your respective time frame it’s more than useful

    Some people think any time is a great time to buy a stock and I think that’s a great way to get stuck holding a down tending company based on your subjective analysis of a business for years on end - learnt this early on

  3. #2423
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    [COLOR=var(--primary-text)]Pushpay announces ChurchStaq, an all-inclusive suite of end-to-end engagement solutions including a comprehensive church management system (ChMS), mobile app, donor management and giving solution, to help churches know, grow, and keep their people.

    When Pushpay and Church Community Builder joined forces almost 8 months ago, our teams were excited by what our combined technologies would be able to offer to help further the ministries of our customers. The need for technology, built specifically for the church, is a critical component for churches to be able to know, grow, and keep their people. As a combined company, our strategy is to provide churches with uncompromising, best in class software built for the church. The results of this combination have been incredible. Churches who use Pushpay and Church Community Builder together have seen a 24% increase in recurring givers compared to churches who use a competing giving platform.
    [/COLOR]
    [COLOR=var(--primary-text)]https://pushpay.com/blog/connect-2020-product-launch/[/COLOR]

  4. #2424
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    Forsyth Barr just updated new report today 10 Sep 2020.

    "Our ongoing discussions with a number of churches across the US confirms our positive view of where PPH is tracking and that digital giving is here to stay. Many US churches have re-opened their doors to physical church services during September and we see upside risk for FY21 forecasts. Feedback from churches confirms our view that church goers give more to an organisation where there is a higher level of physical engagement, while digital giving is still likely to remain the predominant method of donation, due to concerns over handling cash. A high number of small church closures during COVID-19 has accelerated church consolidation in the US, further expanding the more established megachurches. While front book sales are likely to have slowed in recent weeks due to PPH employees working from home and short-term church disruption, we remain positive on the impact of the integrated CCB/PPH bundle (re-branded as ChurchStaq) once normal activity resumes and churches realise they need a longer term digital strategy. We update our valuation methodology to 1) include Australian technology peers on an EV/Sales basis, and 2) lower our WACC from 8.9% to 8.1% in light of changes to cost of capital and increase our target price to NZ$13.06. We view weakness in the current share price as a good buying opportunity."

    Actually, I really want to buy in but the Major Shareholders and The CEO sold the shares made me confuse man.

  5. #2425
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisphan View Post
    Forsyth Barr just updated new report today 10 Sep 2020.

    "Our ongoing discussions with a number of churches across the US confirms our positive view of where PPH is tracking and that digital giving is here to stay. Many US churches have re-opened their doors to physical church services during September and we see upside risk for FY21 forecasts. Feedback from churches confirms our view that church goers give more to an organisation where there is a higher level of physical engagement, while digital giving is still likely to remain the predominant method of donation, due to concerns over handling cash. A high number of small church closures during COVID-19 has accelerated church consolidation in the US, further expanding the more established megachurches. While front book sales are likely to have slowed in recent weeks due to PPH employees working from home and short-term church disruption, we remain positive on the impact of the integrated CCB/PPH bundle (re-branded as ChurchStaq) once normal activity resumes and churches realise they need a longer term digital strategy. We update our valuation methodology to 1) include Australian technology peers on an EV/Sales basis, and 2) lower our WACC from 8.9% to 8.1% in light of changes to cost of capital and increase our target price to NZ$13.06. We view weakness in the current share price as a good buying opportunity."

    Actually, I really want to buy in but the Major Shareholders and The CEO sold the shares made me confuse man.
    Thanks for that, added more y'day.

  6. #2426
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    7.34 very tempted!

  7. #2427
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    Kiwi company Pushpay set to double profit thanks to 'digital giving' US church-goers, analyst says

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...s-analyst-says
    Last edited by sb9; 16-09-2020 at 02:05 PM.

  8. #2428
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    Kiwi company Pushpay set to double profit thanks to 'digital giving' US church-goers, analyst says

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...s-analyst-says
    Double profits, pfft. That's because they barely make a profit.

    When's the next insider selling?

  9. #2429
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    Big crossing, wonder who's selling now...

    783.5 1,700,000 12:45 SP

  10. #2430
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    Big crossing, wonder who's selling now...
    Simply Wall St says Outgoing CEO? Heslip sold 16.5 million shares for $3.97 last December. He will be regretting that now.
    Director Chris Huljich sold 5 million in July for $8.60 while a week later CFO Samson sold a mere 50,000 of his shares for $8.06, and Director Justine Gay Smyth sold 60,000 on Sept 1 for $8.69.

    That leaves Shaw, McMurchy and Fowler - or perhaps Sampson selling a few more of his.

    But the insiders still hold about 21 million shares in PPH, so those sales may have been just to pay their grocery and power bills for a few weeks.
    Last edited by Jiggs; 18-09-2020 at 11:53 AM.

  11. #2431
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    787 2,057,754 10:18 SP

    Looks like Kabouter offloading more of their remainder of 11mln shares...another 9mln only to go.

  12. #2432
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    Jarden upgrade to Outperform with target $9.30 from $6.54

  13. #2433
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    Quote Originally Posted by gbogo View Post
    Jarden upgrade to Outperform with target $9.30 from $6.54
    Must have been a bit embarrassing for them having a target of 654 when share price has been so strong

    Guess no good eh
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  14. #2434
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    Credit Suisse (Jarden) rates Pushpay as Outperform
    The broker expects FY21 to be "remarkable" with a shift to digital donations accelerating significantly and the platform becoming indispensable to clients. While acceleration over the last six months may be a pulling forward of demand and creating a challenging base to cycle in FY22 the broker still envisages a significant opportunity.

    Credit Suisse also expects Pushpay to exceed FY21 guidance of US$50-54m (EBITDAF), forecasting US$57.2m. Outperform retained. Target rises to NZ$9.30 from NZ$6.54.

  15. #2435
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    Lots of mixed messages with some of the executives selling shares, along with Kabouter selling down their stake to sub 5%, against the backdrop of brokers optimistic target prices (Jarden target price of $9.30 with Forsyth Barr forecasting $12.00+). I see room for growth on the current share price as I believe that PPH will indeed beat the FY21 forecast significantly and that's always well rec'd by the market.
    Discl: holder
    Last edited by Mel; 23-09-2020 at 06:50 PM. Reason: sp

  16. #2436
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mel View Post
    Lots of mixed messages with some of the executives selling shares, along with Kabouter selling down their stake to sub 5%, against the backdrop of brokers optimistic target prices (Jarden target price of $9.30 with Forsyth Barr forecasting $12.00+). I see room for growth on the current share price as I believe that PPH will indeed beat the FY21 forecast significantly and that's always well rec'd by the market.
    Discl: holder
    Sell downs rarely mean anything especially after sp run ups.
    The people selling aren't geniuses of the stock market and don't have excellent valuation methods that somehow
    make them pick a top.
    I think selling based on that would not have been a very smart thing to do.

    I do think the november report will be good but we will see these guys dont really provide interim updates
    which is a good and bad thing

  17. #2437
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    https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...et-higher.html

    Local tech company Pushpay Holdings led the NZX 50 higher, rising 5.8 percent to $8.20, spurred on by another analyst's view.
    Research firm Jarden upgraded the stock to ‘outperform’ and hiked its target price to $9.30, adding a hefty $2.76 to its previous target.
    “Pushpay was always going to be strong today because the US tech sector had a good night and it shares that thematic, but it will have been helpful to have a broker push through an upgrade,” said Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners.
    The analysts said in a note they expect three years of growth to be compressed into one, bringing a 55 percent increase in donation volume and corporate earnings growth of 128 percent.
    “FY21 will be a remarkable year in Pushpay’s trajectory, with the shift to digital donations accelerating significantly, and its platform becoming indispensable to clients,” they wrote.

  18. #2438
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...et-higher.html

    Local tech company Pushpay Holdings led the NZX 50 higher, rising 5.8 percent to $8.20, spurred on by another analyst's view.
    Research firm Jarden upgraded the stock to ‘outperform’ and hiked its target price to $9.30, adding a hefty $2.76 to its previous target.
    “Pushpay was always going to be strong today because the US tech sector had a good night and it shares that thematic, but it will have been helpful to have a broker push through an upgrade,” said Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners.
    The analysts said in a note they expect three years of growth to be compressed into one, bringing a 55 percent increase in donation volume and corporate earnings growth of 128 percent.
    “FY21 will be a remarkable year in Pushpay’s trajectory, with the shift to digital donations accelerating significantly, and its platform becoming indispensable to clients,” they wrote.
    "Indispensable" is a big call. That would give Pushpay a huge moat. I'm liking the sound of that.

  19. #2439
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    Quote Originally Posted by tango View Post
    "Indispensable" is a big call. That would give Pushpay a huge moat. I'm liking the sound of that.
    With Sep period almost coming to end, they should've good idea about how the numbers are tracking for 1H. Hopefully they will provide a trading update in the not too distant future.

  20. #2440
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    Interesting that after the Sharesies lunch podcast where they interviewed Bruce Gordon the share price has gone up. Starting from 1pm when the podcast finished.

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