PPH - PushPay (Church/donor software.)

[Beagle]

Suppose I'm just a traditional investor at heart too, much like the other dog on here, actually strongly prefer real earnings not all this creative hogwash terminology...and if its not real earnings then at the very least I want to know the real cash coming in.

Beagle

And maybe you can help me out mate. If the above is your thinking, what made you invest in PPH in the first place ???

Iceman
Good question. Thinking back I did think they would be growing EPS strongly within a year or two after saying they would be cash flow neutral by Q4 2017, (missed). This was probably a bit naïve on my part. So since my original investment they've :-
1. Missed on delivering that they were going to be cash flow neutral in Q4 2017
2. Changed the way they measure ACMR several times last year, (to show it in the best light ?)
3. Already have 50 of the largest churches on board, one presumes some or nearly all the other largest churches either aren't interested or use alternative apps
4. Moving cost of new customer acquisition out to 18 months revenue from 12 indicating most of the low hanging big fruit has already been picked
5. Share price has roughly doubled

My perception that growth is slowing quite considerably compared to what they've experienced in the past makes me wonder if they'll meet their new target of cash flow neutral by Q4 2018 ? I thought there was good money to be made when I first started investing and growth would see this company REAL earnings positive within a few years, now I am not so sure and the price rise since I first invested has made me think there might be other real EPS growth companies that are lower risk but still high growth, ATM and Synlait spring readily to mind.

I have ALWAYS preferred real earnings growth to creative other terms used by tech companies. I guess my investment naivety was that I thought the pathway between cash flow neutral and real EPS would only be a year or two and I invested "punted" on that basis. Silly mistake really, profitable one but silly nonetheless.
I should probably leave tech investing for people who are really into this sort of thing, (no disrespect intended to any holder).

[iceman]

Beagle

Iceman
Good question. Thinking back I did think they would be growing EPS strongly within a year or two after saying they would be cash flow neutral by Q4 2017, (missed). This was probably a bit naïve on my part. So since my original investment they've :-
1. Missed on delivering that they were going to be cash flow neutral in Q4 2017
2. Changed the way they measure ACMR several times last year, (to show it in the best light ?)
3. Already have 50 of the largest churches on board, one presumes some or nearly all the other largest churches either aren't interested or use alternative apps
4. Moving cost of new customer acquisition out to 18 months revenue from 12 indicating most of the low hanging big fruit has already been picked
5. Share price has roughly doubled

My perception that growth is slowing quite considerably compared to what they've experienced in the past makes me wonder if they'll meet their new target of cash flow neutral by Q4 2018 ? I thought there was good money to be made when I first started investing and growth would see this company REAL earnings positive within a few years, now I am not so sure and the price rise since I first invested has made me think there might be other real EPS growth companies that are lower risk but still high growth, ATM and Synlait spring readily to mind.

I have ALWAYS preferred real earnings growth to creative other terms used by tech companies. I guess my investment naivety was that I thought the pathway between cash flow neutral and real EPS would only be a year or two and I invested "punted" on that basis. Silly mistake really, profitable one but silly nonetheless.
I should probably leave tech investing for people who are really into this sort of thing, (no disrespect intended to any holder).

Fair enough mate

[see weed]

Who is buying 33,000 at 3.86? Anyone on this forum? I got back in at 3.80 this morning.

[hardt]

Who is buying 33,000 at 3.86? Anyone on this forum? I got back in at 3.80 this morning.

Probably Beagle mate.

[Beagle]

Probably Beagle mate.

LOL...like I said above I should probably leave this to people who understand tech companies better like you but like a dog drunk on good wine, (past profits) I wouldn't rule out biting another chunk if there's a meaningful pullback.

[couta1]

This is definitely NOT a typical Couta go big or go home stock to hold.

[Schrodinger]

Slightly pricey at 10x ARR ($1B/$100M ARR) so I would be looking at their chances of a US listing to maintain this high valuation. High chance they might be a takeover target for a payments company. I also like that a huge number of their team are in US so would reduce takeover risk.

I still think this is already built into share price (IMO currently 30-40% over priced).

[kizame]

So all that being said, what is going to make them an attractive investment on the nasdaq? I said a long time ago the one worry I had was that once they exhausted the fast growth with the chain churches,the smaller,many many smaller churches were going to be more difficult and expensive to pick up. So my question is how are they going to sell the listing,or is it going to be like the Aussie listing and get pummeled.

[hardt]

So all that being said, what is going to make them an attractive investment on the nasdaq? I said a long time ago the one worry I had was that once they exhausted the fast growth with the chain churches,the smaller,many many smaller churches were going to be more difficult and expensive to pick up. So my question is how are they going to sell the listing,or is it going to be like the Aussie listing and get pummeled.

Analysts will look into their medium term target of 10% market share of the church giving space and make up their mind, likely come to agreement that even if they hit 1bn in sales they would have an ocean full of opportunities left.

Think about how how many Churches have adopted Pushpay in as little as 3 years...

Also worth remembering the platform is not a unitasker and is built to do more than facilitate church donations within the confines of USA alone.

[Cricketfan]

Also worth remembering the platform is not a unitasker and is built to do more than facilitate church donations within the confines of USA alone.

There was something in the news around a month ago about how charities in NZ were now able to collect donations by having a terminal in certain retail stores. Customers would be asked if they wanted to donate to the charity at the checkout, and if so, they use the terminal to make an electronic donation. Is that something that PushPay could get into?