PPH - PushPay (Church/donor software.)

[iceman]

The numbers for me show something wildly off, did they sign a lot of customers for trials on offers they couldn't refuse then afterwards drop off? Not only is ACMR off by a large margin, but monthly payment averages a down quite a bit. Cause ACMR went from last quarter 106 million to 86 million this quarter a loss of 20 million. Looks like they boosted something temporarily just to get to the 100 million target cause they knew they wouldn't have gotten to it this quarter. If someone says they will write you a letter and sends you a postcard does it really count? Revenue numbers are great without context, but reason ACMR is important as its the lead indicator for what revenue to expect.

Isn't that explained by seasonal changes with Christmas and end of financial year in the US falling in the previous quarter ? You will see in the graph on page 3 in the announcement that ARPC was $ 790 in the September quarter, then shot up to $ 1,233 in December quarter and down to $ 989 in the March quarter, which is 36% higher than same quarter last year.

[Baddarcy]

The numbers for me show something wildly off, did they sign a lot of customers for trials on offers they couldn't refuse then afterwards drop off? Not only is ACMR off by a large margin, but monthly payment averages a down quite a bit. Cause ACMR went from last quarter 106 million to 86 million this quarter a loss of 20 million. Looks like they boosted something temporarily just to get to the 100 million target cause they knew they wouldn't have gotten to it this quarter. If someone says they will write you a letter and sends you a postcard does it really count? Revenue numbers are great without context, but reason ACMR is important as its the lead indicator for what revenue to expect.

Remember PPH get most of their revenue by clipping the ticket on donations NOT from subscription fees. So AMCR goes up when lots of donations are made and down in quiet periods. The December quarter contains Christmas and Thanksgiving both massive giving periods, thus the jump in AMCR in every December quarter.

Same will happen this year except this year we will have even more customers so it will be even bigger.

[drcjp]

The numbers for me show something wildly off, did they sign a lot of customers for trials on offers they couldn't refuse then afterwards drop off? Not only is ACMR off by a large margin, but monthly payment averages a down quite a bit. Cause ACMR went from last quarter 106 million to 86 million this quarter a loss of 20 million. Looks like they boosted something temporarily just to get to the 100 million target cause they knew they wouldn't have gotten to it this quarter. If someone says they will write you a letter and sends you a postcard does it really count? Revenue numbers are great without context, but reason ACMR is important as its the lead indicator for what revenue to expect.

You're comparing the wrong quarter. PPH always state that the Q1 results show a dip. In 2017 the ACMR for Q1 was US$50M. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/299761
So their announcement of ACMR at $86M this 2018 Q1 is actually pretty good.

[BlackPeter]

Remember PPH get most of their revenue by clipping the ticket on donations NOT from subscription fees. So AMCR goes up when lots of donations are made and down in quiet periods. The December quarter contains Christmas and Thanksgiving both massive giving periods, thus the jump in AMCR in every December quarter.

Same will happen this year except this year we will have even more customers so it will be even bigger.

True, however - jump in customer numbers wasn't that big in the past year, was it (+8%)? Jump in per customer income wasn't outrageous either. Market saturation appears to be already pretty close if they have already 65% of the top 20 as customers.

I guess it is amazing how they can spin such quite slow growth and worse - growth potential into such a positive sounding announcement, but I guess at some stage will punters probably start asking in what time frame they will be able to pay back their $ 1.2 billion market cap with $70 m revenue (which so far is more than eaten by cost).

No doubt - they should be able to turn at some stage into a sustainable (i.e. money making vs money losing) business, but the question I would ask myself is - how long will it take for them to pay back their outrageous market cap plus accrued interest, considering as well that their time window to make hay before the next big payment thingy arrives might be limited in today's fast changing world? I am pretty sure the answer (re payback of market cap) will be: forever.

Still, punters are often happy to allow hype to drive the SP up (just look at crypto-currencies, and these make no money at all). So, yes - there might well be good trading opportunities ahead.

Discl: used to hold a small parcel, but currently don't;

[BlackPeter]

Just looking at the trading numbers. Looks like SP went during amateur hour up to $4.40 ... and downhill from there. Not a good sign - SP tried already several time in the last months to break through the $4.40 and never succeeded. Problem is - if it can't get up, it likely will go down. Will it stay above 400? Who knows?

[silverblizzard888]

Isn't that explained by seasonal changes with Christmas and end of financial year in the US falling in the previous quarter ? You will see in the graph on page 3 in the announcement that ARPC was $ 790 in the September quarter, then shot up to $ 1,233 in December quarter and down to $ 989 in the March quarter, which is 36% higher than same quarter last year.

Actually out of all things to be concerned about I'm less concerned with ARPC since its not exactly the clearest indicator since its muddled by them signing bigger clients or charging high fees to exisiting clients. Overall its a good sign that its up, though theres a gap between ARPC and ACMR, ARPC dropped 19.8%, while ACMR dropped 18.8% so not perfectly proportional, which would explain a loss of large fee paying customers replaced by smaller ones.

Remember PPH get most of their revenue by clipping the ticket on donations NOT from subscription fees. So AMCR goes up when lots of donations are made and down in quiet periods. The December quarter contains Christmas and Thanksgiving both massive giving periods, thus the jump in AMCR in every December quarter.

Same will happen this year except this year we will have even more customers so it will be even bigger.

My concern lies with the fact that Pushpays fee structure as previously noted (though not sure if they have changed it) is that large customers generally have a fixed monthly fee and small customers are offered a pay per giver structure in order to make it cost efficient. If Pushpay does infact have a fixed fee scenario with the large customers then ACMR should not fluctuate so largely unless they are experiencing a large churn on their large customers. I think the fee structure needs more clarity. They have stated churn needs to be decreased but has not stated their churn%

You're comparing the wrong quarter. PPH always state that the Q1 results show a dip. In 2017 the ACMR for Q1 was US$50M. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/299761
So their announcement of ACMR at $86M this 2018 Q1 is actually pretty good.

Its fair to say we're comparing the wrong quarters, but when you compare Q1 2018 to Q1 2017 its quite clear growth has dropped off, growth has gone from 157.7% to 46.8%, which for a growth company has dropped off quite a bit. Generally growth is hard to sustain as a company grows larger so the worrying sign is that growth might be even less going forward. Decrease in growth badly affects the valuation of a company particularly a newly minted billion dollar one.

[minimoke]

Market digesting the news and not liking it. Down 4% at the moment

[winner69]

No matter which way you look atthe latest numbers this is the worst quarter ever growth wie (annual) in bith ACMR and customer numbers. Growth decay rate took a real dive .....hard to see how ACMR as at the end of the year will be anywhere near some of the numbers I've seen thrown around on here.

I just cant fathom why the market reckons what it is at the moment. Revenues of $70m convert to Cash Revenues of about $45m once Mastercard et al take there cut. Heck a market cap ~US$800m is about 18 times revenue

So on fundamentals stuffed (in my view( but heck this a follow the squiggly line on a chart stock .... sort of still looking OK and long term still heading up so might get to $5 or $6 later this year as long as the faithful remain faithful.

Must say got to give Chris 120% for that masterpiece of an announcement. Was the conference call just as good

Keep the faith and no worries ....but I'm getting worried (just a bit)

[Ggcc]

I got sucked into this break even stuff at the end of this year and all we need is growth growth growth attitude. I stay away from these investments unless for a quick buck. I lost way to much money on promises made by company directors about breaking even. Until it makes a profit to me it’s a lemon.

[winner69]

Share price recovering after sinking a fair bit

That’s good ...no worries now