Bear.asx

[Beagle]

I still remember that super impersonation you did of a bear after a few wines, very impressive GRRRRRR

P.S. Seriously, I think you are on to a good thing with this.

[noodles]

Well, all the stars are aligned for a big correction on the ASX. QE ending in the US (rates to rise?), banks falling, commodity price rout, end of resources investment boom, rising unemployment, China property market implosion - I find it hard to find any positives, other than some Australian shares exposed to US $ earnings might hold up, but even then a market correction is going to compress the P/E faster than earnings can rise. Bought some US$ as well. Lot of sell signals firing at present, so am cashing up and paying the bank back. Might move more cash to US$ in preparation for the US recovery. Looking for other options....

Hard to argue with your analysis. However, interest rates are still very accommodating in AUS. Don't fight the fed ... blah,blah,blah

Other options:
1. You could turn to the dark side and consider selling short.
2. I reckon there is still value in some small-cap NZX plays.

[Beagle]

CASH works for me, over 50% at present, just got to avoid driving anywhere near Jaguar dealers. We are incredibly fortunate in N.Z. to be able to get circa 4.5% in on call savings accounts, in many countries overseas they can only dream of such returns on cash holdings.

[mark100]

I'm over 60% cash now. I hate holding cash but it could be a difficult few months coming up and I'd rather protect the bounty of the past few years than see it slip away. I can't see rates being cut further in Australia given they are worried about overheating property prices

[Beagle]

Maybe they think the Bear is capable of doing its own roaring today

[stoploss]

Hmm, where have the liquidity providers disappeared to? Normally there are standing orders of 30k - 35k on both buy and sell side, but today - nada. Maybe BEAR is at a point where its travelling under its own steam, or maybe the HFT boys have packed their bags and gone on holiday.

Volatile start , they just held fire till everything was relatively steady .... Gee Chinese tariffs on coal, they know how to put the boot in !!!!!

[stoploss]

I am a bloody genius LOL

Will today be a blood bath on the markets following the US performance? Hmm, things about to get interesting .....

Nice work .

[BFG]

I am a bloody genius LOL

Will today be a blood bath on the markets following the US performance? Hmm, things about to get interesting .....

What's our correction timeframe here? The median 8 months/15%? Or are you banking on something deeper due to the untenable position Oz is in?

[BFG]

Bah humbug, the US pulled out of that 3% slide just before close. Bet there were a few sick stomachs on Wall St today though, that was one heck of a ride!

Europe had a shocker though. What will Asia do?

I'm reading test of10% correction level with failed breach equalling a sucker rally with lower high ahead setting up for a new test of that level. Thoughts?

[Daytr]

Ebola is all over the news. Amasing one or two deaths in the West & suddenly its out of control.
What is alarming however is how the cases in the West have been handled to date & its a modern version of the keystone cops.
There is no way the aid workers should have been brought back to the US & Spain as the risk was too high & I said that at the time.
Sentimentality needs to be taken out of decisions like this.
I would suggest we are about to see a much bigger response to this threat as it is now impacting the West & economic sentiment & its money that talks.

I have been advocating a large correction for some time & this is probably the first real indication of it. We have had some reasonable corrections over the last year or so, but only to bounce back to record levels. Is this time different? Free money for longer in the US doesn't seem to be having the same effect as it did. What is the Fed to do? If they are smart they will let the markets dictate rather than try & re-inflate the balloon. There is a record amount of cash on the sidelines & this will be the buffer for equities & some of that money will enter when they see value. Lower energy prices is also going to help & it will put more money in people's pockets to spend on other things. So I think we see lower in the US equities unless the Fed pulls out the rabbit & the hat. Australia although is being hit hard by commodities & the completion of the building phase of a lot of the projects that has underpinned the economy. The property market I think is the barometer. In the 1980s when the property market got belted, it was partly lead by the Perth market & obviously also the Sydney market. If we start seeing the very over priced Australian property market unravel, watch out Australian equities as they will head a lot lower than just a correction.
One of the biggest employment growth sectors during the Rudd/Gillard government wasn't the resources sector, it was health. I understand Abbott is taking a knife to that budget as well, so things could get very sticky indeed.


Anyone else got thoughts on the broader economy & its impact on the ASX?