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Thread: Bear.asx

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by NZSilver View Post
    Hi - interesting stuff above all, enjoyable reading. Whats your thoughts on market correction in NZ - both property & sharemarket? and do they often make each other occur?

    Thanks in advance.
    we have already seen a bit of a correction in the sharemarket . More than a bit if you were an investor in say PEB, XRO ...... In my opinion more to go . Certainly if people are making heaps of money on the sharemarket, they feel better about themselves , spend more and if they make a sizeable chunk possibly upgrade the house .... There were a few stories around Wellington in the last year of people pulling 500K out of XRO and moving up in the housing bracket..didn't happen to me last transaction was a sale at $ 4.44 odd ( can't win em all and I did make on that ....) If there is a sizeable correction , this can feed through to the property market although tends to take quite a while ..depends how much leverage people have in their houses etc and if the shares were on the Flexi mortgage ......

  2. #42
    Advanced Member Entrep's Avatar
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    Do you think the AUD will tank against the NZD as part a correction? This could be a double whammy for NZ investors.

  3. #43
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    How's the BEAR treating ya KW?

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by BFG View Post
    How's the BEAR treating ya KW?
    Not treating me too well , but it is a hedge of sorts on a small part of the portfolio ...

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Not treating me too well , but it is a hedge of sorts on a small part of the portfolio ...
    Yes, good to know we can hedge our portfolios eh? Going to be interesting to see the reaction of the US market to the FOMC meeting up this week. Very momentous with QE ending and guidance on interest rate rises incoming. I am expecting the rally to end as this rise has basically been predicated upon the rhetoric of one FOMC member (strategic jawboning?). Looking for a lower high and lower low confirmation to show a downward trend channel over the short to medium term.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by BFG View Post
    Yes, good to know we can hedge our portfolios eh? Going to be interesting to see the reaction of the US market to the FOMC meeting up this week. Very momentous with QE ending and guidance on interest rate rises incoming. I am expecting the rally to end as this rise has basically been predicated upon the rhetoric of one FOMC member (strategic jawboning?). Looking for a lower high and lower low confirmation to show a downward trend channel over the short to medium term.
    Ho ho ho... The eternal pessimist. Post this disco-box mumbo jumbo when Da Fed starts to sell down Dem Bonds.

  7. #47
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    Just a question for the uninitiated. Is BEAR a long term losing strategy in that over time it will trend to zero? I mean equity markets in the long term will always rise and dividends etc will eat away at a "short" position. So holding BEAR infinitely is not a winning strategy. Thus I concur that BEAR can only be used as a trading/hedge instrument?

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    Just a question for the uninitiated. Is BEAR a long term losing strategy in that over time it will trend to zero? I mean equity markets in the long term will always rise and dividends etc will eat away at a "short" position. So holding BEAR infinitely is not a winning strategy. Thus I concur that BEAR can only be used as a trading/hedge instrument?
    That is my understanding of these type of instruments.
    No advice here. Just banter. DYOR

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by KW View Post
    Its definitely a trading instrument, and best used as a hedge. However, if we ever end up in the same situation as the Japanese, it could be a 20 year holding period :-)
    Haha cheers KW. Don't think the ASX is going to do a Nikkei though But I get the inference. So BEAR can be used as an "index short". Good to know but Im not going to dip my toes in yet... So tempting the last few weeks to liquidate but then there is that inevitable bounce. Have some cash though sitting on the sidelines and not investing new money.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    Haha cheers KW. Don't think the ASX is going to do a Nikkei though But I get the inference. So BEAR can be used as an "index short". Good to know but Im not going to dip my toes in yet... So tempting the last few weeks to liquidate but then there is that inevitable bounce. Have some cash though sitting on the sidelines and not investing new money.
    +1 for cash. I don't think we're out of the woods yet by any stretch of the imagination. Airlines now being priced like Ebola is suddenly completely beaten as a threat is one example of how irrational the current market seems to have become.
    Last edited by Beagle; 28-10-2014 at 10:07 AM.

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