Promisia Integrative Limited (PIL)

[Yoda]

We might see people take profits from the .03c placement so i think the SP will fall a bit more. There do seem quite a few sellers v buyers for the last week or so. Then we might pick up a few more.

[s4draynz]

QUARTER: PIL: 4th QTR Sales - Significant Growth Continues

The Directors of Promisia Integrative Limited (NZX:PIL) are pleased to advise

that sales for the third quarter of the current financial year ending 31

December 2016 have maintained the trend set throughout 2016 year as detailed

in the company's previous quarterly sales announcements. Sales for the fourth

quarter were $842,576, which is a 485% increase on sales in the same quarter

in 2015.

Sales for the full 12 months of 2016 are $2,668,068 compared with sales of

$406,644 for the same period in 2015, which is a 556% increase.

The company also traded profitably for the 4th quarter of 2016, and will

report the full year's annual report in due course.

An independent report shows that Arthrem is currently the No.1 Single selling

product in NZ Pharmacies in dollar terms.

[Balance]

Sales momentum seems to be stalling?

3rd Q - $833,009
4th Q - $842,576

Is there seasonality to this drug? Sufferers suffer less during warmer months?

[artemis]

Sales momentum seems to be stalling?

3rd Q - $833,009
4th Q - $842,576

Is there seasonality to this drug? Sufferers suffer less during warmer months?

Suspect there is a seasonal effect. Osteoarthritis runs in my family, and I remember my mother having to soak her hands in warm water to get them moving on cold mornings. (Anecdata.)

PIL has been doing a huge amount of TV advertising here, and obviously have found that sales revenue exceeds advertising cost. That bodes well for similar advertising in other markets, Australia probably next off the block. It would be interesting to find out how many are repeat sales and how many one off. It is the repeat sales that are important for ongoing revenue.

[FarmerGeorge]

Suspect there is a seasonal effect. Osteoarthritis runs in my family, and I remember my mother having to soak her hands in warm water to get them moving on cold mornings. (Anecdata.)

PIL has been doing a huge amount of TV advertising here, and obviously have found that sales revenue exceeds advertising cost. That bodes well for similar advertising in other markets, Australia probably next off the block. It would be interesting to find out how many are repeat sales and how many one off. It is the repeat sales that are important for ongoing revenue.

Hard to know the answer yet. EG were the Q3 sales a group which bought several months worth of product, meaning a large chunk of Q4 sales were new to the product OR were the majority of Q3 sales the same people who were also buying in Q4, in which case the product has already reached a level of market saturation? Also, the potential for seasonal effect is certainly there. Also, we don't know much about vendor inventories - were they building up in Q3 and running down in Q4, which would tell us something quite different from if it were the opposite.

The bigger concern for me is the cheerleading tone of the announcement. It is obvious that Q4 sales were not significantly greater than Q3, so why not discuss that, and the Directors response to this fact, rather than apparently ignore it?! We are here speculating on the possible reasons for something instead of getting some informed views on it.

[s4draynz]

well, looks like the market ha had time to digest the news..

[FarmerGeorge]

well, looks like the market ha had time to digest the news..

Not sure the volume is large enough to infer anything about the 'market'. Either way, slow drift down feels like a reasonably likely outcome until we see FY results. Key will be timeline to FY profitability (FY18?) and where the next stage of revenue growth is coming from (Aust? US? Pet Food?). Is anyone planning to attend any planned public presentation?
There needs to be some real growth in the pipeline to justify even current market cap. That said, full disc., I like the product, still hold.

[FarmerGeorge]

Unaudited financials released this week (Dec FY). Confirmed a few positives, in particular it looks like Arthrem is viable and the business is profitable on a run-rate basis (ie looks like profitable each month on current sales volume). A few weird/disappointing things: announcement that Jan was ahead of Jan '16 (completely irrelevant for early stage growth business, question is how the company is doing month-on-month); no timeline on Australian registration or finalising the dog product (just noted as 'priorities' for 2017).
Next couple of quarters sales will be really interesting. I wonder how much upside there is in NZ on current strategy if Arthrem is already the 'top-selling product, by dollar value'. Sales don't need to grow at last years rate but do need to grow significantly to justify current valuation. If growth in NZ stalls or falls to single digits and there are further delays in Aust then another cap raise is certainly possible.
I sound too negative - these are just watch points. Overall I think this is a great story and the company is doing an excellent job so far. I'm just wary of current valuation. Still holding.

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PIL/announcements/298173

Now why would the CEO resign suddenly and with immediate effect?

Something does not smell right.

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PIL/announcements/298173

Now why would the CEO resign suddenly and with immediate effect?

Something does not smell right.

First the Chairman stepped down, and then resigned as a director shortly after.

May 2016 : "Mr Malcolm Johnson, Chairman of Promisia Integrative Limited has stepped down
as the Company's Chairman. Mr Johnson said "The Company has a clear strategic direction and an exciting
product in Arthrem which already has a considerable following and is capable of aiding many more arthritis sufferers with other products in the pipeline". Mr Johnson commented that the Company had a bright future and that during his three year tenure he had put in place a suite of best practice governing documents which would stand the Company in good stead."

Then, the CEO steps down.

If there is more upside, why would they be resigning?

Wonder if they are selling or have already gotten rid of some of their shares to cash in on the millions of dollars of gains they are sitting on?