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  1. #261
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dassets View Post
    I love this. My Tesla short one of the best ever. Here comes $200.
    Tesla shorters lost US$38 Billion in 2020 alone, that is about $10 Billion more than Tesla has raised in capital in total.

  2. #262
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crypto Crude View Post
    Lasereyekiwi,

    You know I have a degree in finance and I'm qualified to give financial advice...

    So Tesla are making high gross margins on their cars... whoop de do...
    How much net profit are they making...
    Actual fluff all...
    Tesla don't make money, they earn and sell pollution credits which keep them afloat, they earn credits from the government for producing zero emissions cars..
    If you take those credits away they lose money...!!!
    Tesla doesn't make enough money to warrant it a profitable company... they produced loser type earnings numbers since the company began.. the sort of profits that a Elon musk fan boy wouldn't even care about anyway... Tesla had earnings per share of 24 cents on a GAAP basis for the quarter that ended Dec. 31, 2020, and 64 cents for the year. Full-year net income was $721 million. Quarterly revenue, led by sales of the company’s Model 3 and Model Y electric vehicles, was $10.7 billion and the annual tally was a best-ever $31.5 billion.

    EPS 64 cents for the year $750 share price...
    Do you see a problem here fan boy???
    ...
    What happens is US automakers must sell a certain percentage of zero emissions cars...
    Or have to buy regulatory credits... Tesla is net positive these credits because it is exclusively electric..
    So how much money is this worth?

    $3.3 billion over the last 5 years...
    In 2020 that amount was worth $1.6 billion...
    2020 Tesla net income was only 721 million...
    Meaning without these credits Tesla would have a net loss !!!
    These credits are interpreted to end in the future...
    There is more and more competition for electric cars coming...

    Tesla had never made a profit up until 2020 which is still below 1 billion dollars !!!...
    For a 800 billion dollar company dude you are trying to pull the wool over our eyes by saying wow look at these great gross margins .. LOL 😆

    Tesla will get hung out to dry badly and late investors will get burnt the worst...

    Tesla has a cult like following and does not even closely warrant its current value ....

    I'm always looking for investments and I would struggle to want to pay $100 per share...

    Tesla is a looming financial market... ka boom 💥
    Well something we agree on CC Tesla is one massive bubble .. like many stocks with Billion caps with nil net profits from operations ...
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  3. #263
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    Well something we agree on CC Tesla is one massive bubble .. like many stocks with Billion caps with nil net profits from operations ...
    Hey buddy,
    If you liked making money then we would agree on everything...
    You have really pizzed away a lot of opportunity cost...and your about to get shocked right off...
    ...

    Where has laser eye kiwi gone?
    Have they lost their sight and cant see the trees from the woods...
    I'm gona always be honest so if that means getting stuck right in then so be it...

  4. #264
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crypto Crude View Post
    Hey buddy,
    If you liked making money then we would agree on everything...
    You have really pizzed away a lot of opportunity cost...and your about to get shocked right off...
    ...

    Where has laser eye kiwi gone?
    Have they lost their sight and cant see the trees from the woods...
    I'm gona always be honest so if that means getting stuck right in then so be it...
    I can promise you we don't have to agree for me to make money ...I like to invest in real assets got my eye on another Commercial property 60k+ net income pa ... all goes to plan will buy outright with my 20/21 ASX profit .....

    Cashflow is King ... just ask all these Tech Giants announcing losses .... they survive off raising capital with BIG dreams of forward earnings will end in tears...
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  5. #265
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    You should be shorting next year...

  6. #266
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    Tesla falling right in line here...

    One of the most overvalued stocks of all time...

    Tesla does not make money ...
    Still valued over 600 billion dollars...

    Anyone who tells you Tesla makes money is a liar !!

  7. #267
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaserEyeKiwi View Post
    I wouldn't take any financial advice, in crypto or otherwise, from anyone who deosnt know how to read a company financial statement (because if someone says Tesla "just dont make money" - then that person obviously have never bothered too or doesnt know how to read an income statement.)

    =====

    Tesla has amongst the highest gross margins on their vehicles of any car manufacturer building at scale, that is a fact easily confirmed by simply comparing income statements - it's not an opinion, it is simply the reality that Tesla cars are sold with a very high profit margin. (And yes that is without "regulatory credits" which are 100% gross margin - a nice cherry on top.)

    Meanwhile, as Tesla has been growing gross margins, the company operating expenses (SG&A and R&D costs) have remained relatively flat (or actually reduced) even with rapidly growing shipment volume. This is because much of the operating expenses are fixed costs unrelated to the number of cars shipped, therefore as shipments increase the gross margin earned from the additional shipments starts flowing increasingly straight to the operating profit bottom line. This is a classic example of operating leverage leading to dramatically higher profit growth. In other words, once the gross margin from shipments was large enough to cover the fixed operating expenses, the additional growth in shipments is all flowing to profits.

    This is the primary reason why the company is valued so highly at present. If Tesla grows its car shipments as expected throughout this decade (from 500k cars last year to 5-10 million cars annually by decade end), AND is able to maintain impressive gross margins, then all that additional gross margin generated above the 500k annual shipment level will flow mostly through to gigantic profit growth. Any additional profits from Tesla's growing non-car business segments (energy & services, and any new markets entered like FSD fleet potentially) will accelerate the profits.

    In short, people aren't assigning a $750 Billion valuation based on Tesla's current earnings, but instead are basing it on what they think the company will be earning 5-10 years out. If one thinks the company will be able to generate $50 Billion in net income in 2030, then the current valuation looks cheap. However if someone disagrees and thinks the company will only be earning $10 Billion at that date, then of course the company looks insanely overvalued. I expect the stock price to have big moves up and down over the next few years as the likelihood of either the bullish or bearish outcome increases or decreases as events play out.
    It appears to be you who does not know how to value a company. All you have to do is look at the valuations of the biggest automakers in the world to see that Tesla is not being valued as a car company. If tesla was going to be as profitable as Toyota or Daimler in 10 years (a BIG call) they should be trading at about half their value currently (using a WACC of say 7% which is quite low). Instead I read their market cap was more than the next 5 largest auto makers combined.

    They are obviously being valued as more than a car company (e.g. self driving was brought up earlier...) OR millions of redditors that do not know how to value companies 'like the stonk'.

  8. #268
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    Quote Originally Posted by James108 View Post
    It appears to be you who does not know how to value a company. All you have to do is look at the valuations of the biggest automakers in the world to see that Tesla is not being valued as a car company. If tesla was going to be as profitable as Toyota or Daimler in 10 years (a BIG call) they should be trading at about half their value currently (using a WACC of say 7% which is quite low). Instead I read their market cap was more than the next 5 largest auto makers combined.

    They are obviously being valued as more than a car company (e.g. self driving was brought up earlier...) OR millions of redditors that do not know how to value companies 'like the stonk'.
    What are you on about? I personally made no valuation of the company in my previous post: All I did was explain to you how most Tesla bulls are placing value on the company (its far future profits).

    Notice the one thing I did say I expect to happen with the share price: "I expect the stock price to have big moves up and down over the next few years as the likelihood of either the bullish or bearish outcome increases or decreases as events play out."
    If you really must know, I sold most of my holdings at $811, and the remainder at $700. The risk/reward ratio just didn't stack up at those higher prices for my own personal investing style.

    I value each company independently - I don't care what industry they are in: every company should be valued on its own fundamentals. There is no set rule for how a "car company" should be valued. There are a multitude of different type of car companies all with different growth & profitability profiles. some are absolute dogs, some are high margin beasts. For instance there is a reason Porsche is valued at between $50-$100 billion despite the fact it only makes a few hundred thousand cars a year - its because that's what its own profitability and growth profile dictates.

    Treating each company differently is why no one values Apple like a computer, phone or tablet manufacturer (these 3 products are notoriously low margin for most companies who make them).

  9. #269
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    You told someone else they didn't know how to value a company then went on to talk about gross margin and operating leverage like it matters at all to their valuation. Their manufacturing capability clearly is not why they are valued so highly. I set out a case why I think their car manufacturing is worth a fraction of their market cap (at best half the value of Toyota, VW, Daimler).

    What was the Tesla the market cap when you bought at and how did you ascertain that was fair value or cheaper?

    Also Porsche is part of Volkswagen - which has a market cap of $193B Euro. I seriously doubt the porsche segment is worth near the figures you stated and certainly not half the value of volkswagon which includes VW (duh) audi, bentley, lamborghini, Skoda etc. I don't think you have a clue.

  10. #270
    Contrarian Investor Ferg's Avatar
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    FYI last month Ark amended their target SP for Tesla for 2024 from US$7,000 (dated Jan 2020) to US$3,000 for 2025.

  11. #271
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    There was a 5 for 1 share split around mid 2020 for tesla shares. That means there $7000 price target for 2024 was in fact $1400

  12. #272
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    Lol forget about electric vehicles...

    Tesla need crypto to drive the ship..


    Lol read this ... Elon Mush says he will put Dogecoin on the moon... Doge coin goes up 35%...
    https://cryptopotato.com/elon-musk-s...skyrockets-35/

  13. #273
    Contrarian Investor Ferg's Avatar
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    Nice catch. I'm not following it that closely so that would explain what appears to be a decrease is actually an increase. For me the jury is out on such valuations....I have no opinion and no position.

  14. #274
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dassets View Post
    I love this. My Tesla short one of the best ever. Here comes $200.
    From that date of post TLSA (was in market earlier though) S&P up about 10% and TSLA down 10%. Stellantis only the start of more real world pain for TSLA. It has announced no more purchase of credits, circa 300m euro pa(TLSA 2/3rds). This is effectively a no-cost revenue stream for TSLA. Other manufacturers will follow Stellantis next 1-2 years.

    Hope TSLA continues to make money long crypto as a replacement for the regulatory credits. Now where is that iceberg I am selling!!

  15. #275
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    It will be interesting to see how much Stellantis pay to get out of the pooling contract that FCA have with Tesla. Tesla recorded $518 million in regulatory credits in the most recent quarter, I have seen it mentioned that about $60 million of those were from FCA. VW was a big buyer in China (and expect to be for another 18 months or so). Unfortunately the VW ID3 seems to be selling in low numbers in Europe, hopefully the ID4 will do better.
    The European regulators are unhappy about how little mileage those with company PHEV actual do using electricity. It appears most of them almost never plug in, so look to further regulation and reduction of subsidies there.
    Let's hope the Legacy car companies do pull their fingers out and stop gifting Tesla all of that money. In the meantime Tesla would be silly to decline their generous contributions.
    If Legacy auto don't get it together the Chinese will eat them alive. Volvo. Polestar, MG, Nio and Xpeng and other Chinese car companies are already dipping their toes in the European market.

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