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  1. #1
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    Lightbulb TSLA - Tesla Motors

    Does anyone have any thoughts on Tesla? I'm considering using part of my GNE refund to take a punt. With the NASDAQ being wobbly they're coming down from a high, and I think there is a phenomenal upside to this company.

    These are just some of my thoughts in no particular order. I'm still working on it and haven't come to a decision either way, just interested if anyone else has thoughts on this?

    1) The assumption that "electric cars + Elon Musk = tech" seems outdated. Yes they're developing new technology, but so are GM & Ford all the time. Tesla is about as related to Pets.com as Boeing is to King Bladud.

    2) Their direct distribution model means that if/when they hit the mainstream (and they deal with the dealer-cartels in the states) they will be able to command a higher markup than other automakers who sell through agents.

    3) Their gigafactory, when built, will supply them with cheap, superior batteries as well as being a diversified source of income.

    4) China etc.

  2. #2
    Senior Member Entrep's Avatar
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    Ignore my comments - wrong chart
    Last edited by Entrep; 26-04-2014 at 11:46 AM.

  3. #3
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bmrm View Post
    Does anyone have any thoughts on Tesla? I'm considering using part of my GNE refund to take a punt. With the NASDAQ being wobbly they're coming down from a high, and I think there is a phenomenal upside to this company.

    These are just some of my thoughts in no particular order. I'm still working on it and haven't come to a decision either way, just interested if anyone else has thoughts on this?

    1) The assumption that "electric cars + Elon Musk = tech" seems outdated. Yes they're developing new technology, but so are GM & Ford all the time. Tesla is about as related to Pets.com as Boeing is to King Bladud.

    2) Their direct distribution model means that if/when they hit the mainstream (and they deal with the dealer-cartels in the states) they will be able to command a higher markup than other automakers who sell through agents.

    3) Their gigafactory, when built, will supply them with cheap, superior batteries as well as being a diversified source of income.

    4) China etc.
    Did you take a punt?

    Share price was $200 back then - now $237 so up 18% in 2 years

    But what of the future - wow. As Mr Musk tweeted a while ago

    @elonmusk: Now 232k orders

    Thats a lot of doshto come in coming years
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  4. #4
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    232k is $9b (b for Billion) in sales.

    To the end of 2015 they'd only sold 107k cars!

  5. #5
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    The young and the restless have taken to them in Hong Kong..

    Everywhere..

    Bodes well for sales to the young and restless in China ..

  6. #6
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    Anybody here got TSLA shares

    Eion says if you can’t stand volatility and don’t understand cash burn you shouldn’t be in TSLA shares

    Told analysts they ask boring bonehead questions and are boring in an analyst teleconference ...and then hung up
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  7. #7
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    Investors are only going to stump up cash for so long, then he will really find out what cash burn means.

    If/when they get their Model 3 in good numbers it may stop or alternately major manufacturers will beat him to it.
    He has too many balls in the air imho.
    Perhaps he should lend/merge/sell his technology for the cars to the experts and concentrate on some of his other areas, such as battery technology for solar power.

    One thing I think he has done , that he has speeded up the major manufactures in looking at/producing an electric vehicle /hybrid a lot sooner that they may otherwise done.

    Discl: None, nil,nada, zip

  8. #8
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Really bizarre call the other day. I think Musk's performance of late is all the proof you ever need that EVERYONE needs checks and balances.
    The major manufacturers who are highly experienced at mass production and some of them with very good quality control are all working hard to release competing vehicles in the near future.
    I would not be one to give Musk (an interest free unsecured loan on one of his cars, otherwise known as a deposit) with his arrogant and irrational performance of late.
    I think the odds on the company being around to honor the full tenure of an eight year warranty are lower than 50 / 50.
    I think their current Tesla S is a pretty good car but priced above where it really should be so when the price comes down to a more realistic level, maybe.
    Two questions resonate with me regarding Tesla cars.
    1. Why be an early adopter and give them an unsecured interest free deposit on a very expensive car when you might not ever see it delivered ?
    2. What's a second hand Tesla worth if they go out of business ?
    In terms of their shares...I cannot see anything to recommend them.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  9. #9
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    If I was going short a company ie predicting its SP would fall over the short term - Tesla #1
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  10. #10
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    That Musk not a good character is he

    Heard deposit refunds are outpacing new orders at the moment

    Considering the huge pile of debt Tesla has I reckon shareholders not in a very good position if/when Tesla goes bust
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  11. #11
    Senior Member stevo1's Avatar
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    Musk has lost the first off the mark advantage ,there are lots of competitors in or coming to the EV space.some of these are very experienced car makers .The Chinese manufacturers are really gearing up with some great vehicles https://www.nio.io/

  12. #12
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    Maybe they will survive after all..

    https://www.thestreet.com/opinion/te...aways-14670965

    Sounds like somebody pulled Musk aside and pointed out that being rude to analysts and refusing to answer their questions is not a great thing to do if you need to raise capital in future.

  13. #13
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    a profitable quarter!
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  14. #14
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    Its easy to put a link in peat.
    Tesla turns a profit in Q3 despite Musk

  15. #15
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    I bought a bunch for long term hold today because

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMDkPb09oZs

  16. #16
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    Been a holder for 2 years and finally made my entry price again and then some US$420 + with massive short covering since the last Qr ann of increasing sales and with this weeks report from China ( mega factory ) the worst appears behind Tesla and serious orders now being expected, is now the 3rd biggest auto company in the world and who knows where it could finish, Im picking that it has the brightest future of any auto company in the world atm !

  17. #17
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    My 2 cents. They are making hay while the sun shines and that's fine. Over the next couple of years we are going to see a wide range of new EV models coming on stream from Audi, Mercedes-Benz and BMW among many others and people will have the opportunity to buy EV's with high quality German assembly standards.

    I don't know about others but I'd rather own an EV from a well recognised European manufacturer with first class assembly and fit out standards. When customers have far more choice with their EV purchase it will be interesting to see how Tesla sales holds up. From an investment case perspective the shares are priced like they're going to be the dominant EV manufacturer and I don't think that's going to be the case in the future, but like all things about the future, time will tell.
    Last edited by Beagle; 04-01-2020 at 09:24 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  18. #18
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    The weese out is that the TSLA technology is the worlds best as the European motor makers have not yet nailed the necessary tech, their battery is heavier and drives fewer Km or miles than TSLA, last nights 3%( $444 ) S P jump is another endorsement for the company.

    IMHO TSLA could easily be a US $600 dollar stock which for every US $1 increase equals N Z $1.55 approx. and of course the opposite is also true.

  19. #19
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    BMW have their Gen 5 electric motors ready for the new BMW I4. 390 kw's and BMW build quality...Hmmmm
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    My 2 cents. They are making hay while the sun shines and that's fine. Over the next couple of years we are going to see a wide range of new EV models coming on stream from Audi, Mercedes-Benz and BMW among many others and people will have the opportunity to buy EV's with high quality German assembly standards.

    I don't know about others but I'd rather own an EV from a well recognised European manufacturer with first class assembly and fit out standards. When customers have far more choice with their EV purchase it will be interesting to see how Tesla sales holds up. From an investment case perspective the shares are priced like they're going to be the dominant EV manufacturer and I don't think that's going to be the case in the future, but like all things about the future, time will tell.

    Beagle, you've been citing European quality far too many times and the market is saying, European quality is irrelevant when it comes to buying EVs. Consider how much a flop Mercedez is having with their "deemed Tesla killer" only 55 EQCs sold.

    https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-kill...flops-germany/

    "One might just wonder if Mercedes cannot sell its electric SUV in its own backyard, how will its electric vehicles do in other markets that it depends on for revenue, such as China and the United States? The company has announced that it is delaying the release of the EQC in the US for another year, which does not bode well for the vehicle. As for Tesla, the game to conquer Europe begins soon with Tesla Gigafactory 4, and it has already opened the floodgates in China with the first deliveries of itsmass-produced Model 3 electric sedans."

    and as i've mentioned before to you, ALL other EV makers are simply far behind Tesla in terms of infotainment and autonomous driving. Clear example is this review comparing a Model 3 to BMW's $300K top of the line M850i Gran Coupe.

    https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-vs-b...-battle-video/

    The video reviewer simply says while the BMW is a high end luxury performance car, one has to justify a whopping x 3 times the price compared to the Model 3. He's speaking in terms of autonomous driving ; quite clearly, the BMW is nothing near like Tesla's autonomous driving abiity and should be simply called 'adaptive cruise control' with 'auto lane control' ; and nothing more.

    What i'm seeing is a lot of misinformation. These European brands talking about their cars being autonomous driving ability but are simply far from well... you get the idea.

    No rational person is going to pay a huge price tag for an EV just because it's 'European'. 2nd, Telsa has patented new battery technology ; how will other car makes going to compete with that ? You can bet your boot the Germans have spent hoards of $$ on R&D on new battery techs.... to only just fall short of Tesla's ability. Why? Because they are ICE car makers and not battery tech / software makers.

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