TSLA - Tesla Motors

[Walter]

Damn, even with Shanghai out due to Covid the price still ran up. Austin will open this month, but hopefully the irrational market will focus on deliveries coming in light.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Damn, even with Shanghai out due to Covid the price still ran up. Austin will open this month, but hopefully the irrational market will focus on deliveries coming in light.

Wall Street has already lowered delivery expectations to 309k, which means a miss is much less likely given the impact from Shanghai lockdown would be 10k deliveries max in Q1. I guess we will know for sure before market reopens next week (delivery number should be out by Sunday morning NZ time)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

310k deliveries - just beating consensus 309k estimate.

[Walter]

Market is punishing such results, so Dassets might get a lifeline.

[Dassets]

The Q1 production is out, production at 305,407 slightly down on the last qtr(Dec). Deliveries were 310,048 vs exp 308,838 but this expectation was reduced down last week when some downgrades came through so will disappoint the bullish analysts. IIDK whether this affects Musk's forecast of 50% increase this year.

I had to take some brave pills last week with some concrete soup. Being short this, bitcoin, AIR and long STU, NWF, small long RKLB will do that to a grown man. The "portfolio" is schizophrenic in behaviour. Think I may not have followed portfolio theory in class well enough. If you want to scare yourselves go look at the kiwi swap rates and continued plunge or the current account record deficit or US TreasurIes. I heard this week that Whanganui house prices are trading 18% below peak already. Happy to be short but better challenge the investment committee on stock selection.

[Dassets]

Indeed, increased the tsla posn over the week, now where is the red ink???? And forgot establishing a new posn, long Alibaba

[pedro.nz]

Two new factories getting ramped up and a stock split at some point may temper the downside somewhat. Will set the alarm to check what the pre market is doing and then decide if I want to jump back in when the market opens at 1:30am.

[Walter]

The Q1 production is out, production at 305,407 slightly down on the last qtr(Dec). Deliveries were 310,048 vs exp 308,838 but this expectation was reduced down last week when some downgrades came through so will disappoint the bullish analysts. IIDK whether this affects Musk's forecast of 50% increase this year.

I had to take some brave pills last week with some concrete soup. Being short this, bitcoin, AIR and long STU, NWF, small long RKLB will do that to a grown man. The "portfolio" is schizophrenic in behaviour. Think I may not have followed portfolio theory in class well enough. If you want to scare yourselves go look at the kiwi swap rates and continued plunge or the current account record deficit or US TreasurIes. I heard this week that Whanganui house prices are trading 18% below peak already. Happy to be short but better challenge the investment committee on stock selection.

Tesla is up 68% over quarter one 2021. For the same time period in USA Toyota is -15%, GM -24%, Ford -17%, Honda -27%....Tesla Berlin is now open and Tesla Texas will open this month, doubling the number of Tesla car factories. Supply chain issues continue to plague the industry, but my money is on Tesla delivering about 70% more than they did last year.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Tesla is up 68% over quarter one 2021. For the same time period in USA Toyota is -15%, GM -24%, Ford -17%, Honda -27%....Tesla Berlin is now open and Tesla Texas will open this month, doubling the number of Tesla car factories. Supply chain issues continue to plague the industry, but my money is on Tesla delivering about 70% more than they did last year.

yes I dont see how a 68% increase year on year in Q1 is somehow a hindrance to a 50%+ y-o-y growth target, quite the opposite. In Q1 alone they are already 125,000 cars more than the same period last year, using the same factories (Fremont & Shanghai). So they only need 125k extra each quarter from the next 3 to achieve 50% growth (+490k vehciles) for the whole year. And they have two more factories just come online to help achieve this.

the only risk to Tesla not achieving 50% vehicle delivery growth this year is if China puts Shanghai into lockdown for a MONTHS long shutdown. Even in that worse case unlikely scenario, most large factories will institute the “living on site” exemption that exists to allow production to continue.

[pedro.nz]

Seems the market is happy with the production figures and not too worried about the pause in production - for today at least...
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