TSLA - Tesla Motors

[Dassets]

The rules on crypto appear to be that they must mark them down to the lowest price during the quarter, but can not mark up, unless it's a realised profit. They have $US218 million of crypto in the balance sheet now, had $US1,261 million last quarter and made sales of US$936 million. They say that they made a loss on crypto.

Yes but the margin $ value moves from qtr to qtr and then looking at the regulatory credit position changes mean EBITDA doesn't make sense esp when you had materials pressure and restructuring costs. Really the level of disclosure is poor. It makes people think they are making more money.

Another couple of things Musk saying that he sees inflation receding by end of year is a pretty BS comment unless you can back it up. But the Musk followers buy it hook line and sinker. Secondly reports that 2 of the plants(was it Shanghai and Berlin?) were going to close in July for modifications to be able to reach production targets combined with we are sticking to 50% volume growth for the year(same projection before shanghai closure and delays to Berlin is aspirational but that doesn't cut the mustard. They are holding out aspiration as forecast/projection which is bad and potentially actionable.

Finally what I notice about Musk is he is always trying to start a side show to take your eye off core fundamentals eg costs going up, lets do a split etc etc. Also Musk is going to be up to his eyeballs in legal briefs and on that he is in big trouble. I have been reading some good legal views on his position. Anyway if you are trading Tesla this is what you have to expect.

[Walter]

German media says that the Berlin alterations have already happened. The Model Y production upgrades have already happened at Shanghai - they are now reported as producing 2000 a day. The model 3 production line upgrades at Shanghai started July 17th and are expected to be finished by August 7th. Covid lockdowns are still a wildcard.

Tesla has increase prices multiple times in USA. The standard Model 3 increased by $10,000 in just over year, while Tesla honors order prices, the newer prices have flowed through to selling prices.

The energy division and services contributed a few hundred million more than last quarter and as predicted stock based compensation was down.

I don't know why interest income was so small. Rumour is that much of the cash is in Europe and China with very low interest rates. Tesla is also said to be a slow payer, which does not make sense to me either. If your suppliers are precious it would seem to make sense to keep in their good books.

Who knows with the court cases. With Twitter, it appears his defense is that he bought in good faith, but that Twitter has been lying about bots in their filings, so everybody was mislead. A lose would inflict major damage on both parties, so they may settle.

[Walter]

Despite the lag in prices rises due to cheaper orders the average selling price is up over 13% Q2 to Q2 with much higher volumes.

[Dassets]

Despite the lag in prices rises due to cheaper orders the average selling price is up over 13% Q2 to Q2 with much higher volumes.

Wow didn't see that, this is a problem for EVs generally, I mean people have seen demand and supply curves right? When does a demand response occur I wonder

[Walter]

Tesla demand is interesting. There is now quite a bit of competition in USA, yet Tesla is still hovering around 70% market share of BEVs there. Despite the large price rises the waitlist for a Tesla is still over 6 months in most cases. Resale values are often higher than the new price.

In USA VW ID4 has months worth of cars sitting around, after the tax credits it's around US$37,000. While it has it's faults, It does not seem like that bad of a car. I had a ride in a Bolt recently - GM is now selling them for under US$30,000. It's a shame they are not available here.

[Walter]

USA Jan - April Tesla (139K) easily outsold BMW (106K), Audi (51K), Mercedes (83K), Lexus (88K) etc.
BEV sales in thousands were 64 Tesla Y, 56 Tesla 3, 11 Tesla S, 10 Ford Mach E, 8 Hyundai Ionic 5, 7 Kia EV6, 7 Tesla model X. Perhaps it's the charging network, but Tesla owners satisfaction ratings are very high, despite all the publicity you see in the media.

[Walter]

While I only give it a 50% chance of passing, the possibility of paying many new American Tesla buyers $7500, when they currently get nothing, is an unexpected tailwind. The timing coincides nicely with the massive new factory in Texas ramping up. If it expands as fast as the Shanghai factory, it will be making over a million Teslas a year by sometime in 2024. The Fremont factory makes half of that, but is already the largest car factory in USA.

In addition, it is hard to see how long the rating agencies can still rate Tesla bonds as junk. The balance sheet is far stronger than many of their so called "investment grade" issuers. Upgrading Tesla to investment grade will open up a whole new basket of possible buyers. In addition, just like the index inclusion late 2020, many will become forced buyers.

[Dassets]

While I only give it a 50% chance of passing, the possibility of paying many new American Tesla buyers $7500, when they currently get nothing, is an unexpected tailwind. The timing coincides nicely with the massive new factory in Texas ramping up. If it expands as fast as the Shanghai factory, it will be making over a million Teslas a year by sometime in 2024. The Fremont factory makes half of that, but is already the largest car factory in USA.

In addition, it is hard to see how long the rating agencies can still rate Tesla bonds as junk. The balance sheet is far stronger than many of their so called "investment grade" issuers. Upgrading Tesla to investment grade will open up a whole new basket of possible buyers. In addition, just like the index inclusion late 2020, many will become forced buyers.

That isn't how equity funds work. I have never seen a mandate that has a bond rating overlay on equity positions.

[whatsup]

All set for the 3 for 1 share split, sp up 20%+ in the last week and now that the split has been ann it will rise before that happens, should be back over $1000 before too long.

[Dassets]

All set for the 3 for 1 share split, sp up 20%+ in the last week and now that the split has been ann it will rise before that happens, should be back over $1000 before too long.

Place your bets.

I say no. TESLA is only appealing to retail investors, volumes are super light. The competition is coming fast. The BYD Seal was announced May, deliveries have commenced, first 60T orders done and now expanding to Japan etc. TESLA CYBERTRUCK, announced 2019, delayed again. The Seal looks very good. But the price points way below Model 3. All I say is enjoy the autumn for that stock.