TSLA - Tesla Motors

[Walter]

One of the more reliable sales forecasters is TroyTeslike on twitter. He has revised deliveries down to 400,000 this quarter, well below current market guesses. If he is right, annual deliveries will be about 1.3 million. The Chinese economy is not in a happy place at the moment, although the Government is still supporting "new energy vehicles". There are, of course, big geopolitical factors to consider as well.
The other big factor is how many in USA put off delivery this quarter in the hope of getting a tax incentive next year. Higher income earners may not get the tax break and those that placed orders a while ago probably locked in lower prices, so may still take delivery. Thursday earnings will be interesting.

[Dassets]

Fair enough Snoopy, I will adjust my figures for the 100 per week NZ buys and 400 for Australia. Unfortunately that isn't material.

[Dassets]

I get TroyTeslike data prior to release on Twitter which is one of the data streams I pay for. I think it is 2 weeks prior or at least something like that.

[Ferg]

Fair enough Snoopy, I will adjust my figures for the 100 per week NZ buys and 400 for Australia. Unfortunately that isn't material.

I was chatting to my neighbour who some years ago was taken on a tour of the Japanese car manufacturing facility for which he was a local dealer. I have withheld the name but it is one of the largest Japanese car brands. He was advised at lunch time, that in the time they had been at the factory that morning, the company had manufactured the equivalent of New Zealand's entire annual requirement. Our annual take was made in about 4 hours. That is how small we are.

[Snoopy]

Ps I follow and pay for production numbers and actual sales. A guy I get some of the numbers from is saying he thinks Shanghai is making 10000 cars a week or 50% of production not selling in China like they thought. So Tesla is trying to shift them offshore. LHD though so Europe bound I guess. Problem is sales are not going that well in Europe.

Fair enough Snoopy, I will adjust my figures for the 100 per week NZ buys and 400 for Australia. Unfortunately that isn't material.

I was chatting to my neighbour who some years ago was taken on a tour of the Japanese car manufacturing facility for which he was a local dealer. I have withheld the name but it is one of the largest Japanese car brands. He was advised at lunch time, that in the time they had been at the factory that morning, the company had manufactured the equivalent of New Zealand's entire annual requirement. Our annual take was made in about 4 hours. That is how small we are.

I have a feeling my original comment, in a railway analogy, has been shunted into the wrong siding.

I wholeheartedly agree with both Dassets and Ferg that New Zealand as a vehicle market on a global scale is both tiny and for that reason, some might say irrelevant. And yes you could say that about Australia as well. However, these are both straw man facts to the point I was making.

Dassets conjecture was that the Tesla plant in China only made LHD vehicles (which I pointed out was wrong) and that because of their proximity to Europe, that was likely their largest export market. The reason I brought New Zealand up was because it was a RHD market and was half a world away from Europe. The point being that the Tesla factory in China has the capability to export to any market globally whether those markets be 'big or small', 'LHD or RHD'.

In the grand scheme of things, the fact that Tesla in China exports vehicles to New Zealand is irrelevant (as Dassets has already said). The fact that Tesla's plant in Shanghai is on the world's largest shipping lane and can export to any country in the world, LHD or RHD, is not.

SNOOPY

[Dassets]

Sorry Snoopy but I never said that the China plant didn't make RHD. What I said was the demand for Tesla cars in China was weak so I suggested they would likely go to Europe instead. These are cars that I presume had been build as LHD for the China market and when unable to sell so go to another LHD market naturally. You have added 1 and 1 and got 3.14159265359.

Remarkably Tesla had to stop production for a whole day on 30th Sept? Why? Seriously they had run out of room to park them. That signals that their logistics plan/chain is FUBU.

Now I did say that I thought the result will miss but the share price could go up because I think the banks have been shorting Tesla to bid Elon after the result and window opens. So no wholesale selling into market, short squeeze followed by a decline as forecasts are reduced for next year.

[pedro.nz]

2022 Q3 Tesla Quarterly Update

[Dassets]

Hi, a quarterly miss doesn't really mean much on its own. However for me it is quite obvious the reasons for the miss are much more the real story. I was playing safe due to my concerns about Musk selling in a structured way so reduced my short from 900 to 400 this morning. Don't regret rebuying shorts but I am now am confident from this result I have a good handle on the company.

I am going to build a bigger more permanent position. Finished product inventory over the next 12 months will keep growing.
There are downgrades happening. However that doesn't matter because retail buys it until they don't.
.

[Ferg]

A bull puts forward his projections:

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comm...m_source=share

[ynot]

Down 48% this year. Wild ride. Not far behind Bitcoin on the year.