TSLA - Tesla Motors

[Dassets]

Dassets, isn't part of your thesis that Cybertruck will not sell in any quantity? Who has an 80,000 Cybertruck forecast for next year? Bulls like James Stephenson forecast about 30,000 next year and expect Tesla to make a loss on them.

Think I saw the 80T estimate via Patreon - Troy Teslike, in a spreadsheet. The number was the production forecast but I cannot remember whether it was Troy's forecast that he was downgrading or it was an estimate of average analyst forecast views for 2023. My "thesis" supporting my short strategy doesn't factor in Cybertruck as a positive or negative, just assumes neutral. Tesla gets there on other factors for me. But my comment on sales for Cybertruck is only about sales numbers for next year.

I don't take much from the report in the last day about China deliveries dropping to 71,704 cars from its Shanghai plant from a record high of 83,135 in September, Bloomberg commenting on CPCA data. I want to see more detail on that.

A big problem is European markets. I subscribe to Matt Gasnier's sales site. Tesla is not getting traction in the main Euro markets(October country data being released now, France, Spain, Netherlands out already), in fact absolute sales numbers seem to be falling sept YTD year on year. My reservation over this data is the chunky deliveries that do occur. But for Tesla to get anywhere near its global ambitions on sales growth Europe has to be part of it. It just isn't happening at the pace it needs. Fine before when there wasn't competition but there is now and others are selling. Tesla is letting competition get meaningful market share. So the pie sure is getting bigger but Tesla is not getting the slice it needs to support its "targets" or valuation implied sales. I don't hate or love Tesla. I am just looking at it as a business BTW

[whatsup]

What a fuc!in mess Musk is making with Twitter which is imploding on Tesla, he like Trump imho needs a public relations minder !!

[ynot]

What a fuc!in mess Musk is making with Twitter which is imploding on Tesla, he like Trump imho needs a public relations minder !!

I wouldn't write him off just yet. He has a habit of getting results.

[whatsup]

I wouldn't write him off just yet. He has a habit of getting results.

Yeh, but twitter is no private so no upside for Tesla except pain to cover its losses until it turns @ $4 mil per day losses.

[Crypto Crude]

I warned everybody about Tesla... it being the most overvalued stock in all of history....
The price target is chapter 11...

[Dassets]

I agree. Take about 7 years by my numbers. That is about when it cannot invest in any new models.

[Dassets]

How is that short going?

Its going ok thanks!

[Dassets]

Incidentally I didn't expect he needed to sell any more stock. Basically he got more cash from the earlier sales than almost anyone calculates. Why? People said he needed to pay tax on any of the stock sold that came from converted employee/exec/director options. Simple? No. Elon made a disclosure in February 22 that he donated 5.044M shares to an unnamed charity 3 MONTHS EARLIER!! Yes he had already exited stock and delayed the disclosure for 3 months. I wonder whether the unnamed charity could have been the Musk Foundation, set up to invest in renewables research and space. Now that stock was almost certainly sold at the time of gifting. The gifting generated a nice tax credit for Elon.


It staggers me that investors and analysts can't even pick up these details. Average work all round. That 3 month delay between disposal and disclosure is unreal especially given Elon's direct sale into the market later. Wow, was he maybe pulling the wool over people's eyes to protect later selling? A cynic would think that was possible.

All docs supporting the disposal to the charity and timing were filed with the SEC where you can find them.

BTW analysts will need to downgrade again next year as Cybertruck is not going to meet embedded forecasts next year of circa 80,000 after the announcement that it won't be assembled in quantity until late next year.

Well I was spot on with the stock that went to a charitable being Musk's. Now confirmed. My theory of the tax spot on. I suspect he was also selling last night looking at the volumes. I truly don't know where the mid term bottom is for this stock but I have expressed my 7 year view. Tesla will likely merge being a mere shell of its past glory or go bust. IMO those outcomes are now baked in. Tragedy for a lot of people and I don't say that glibly.

[Dassets]

A bold prediction indeed which has spurred me into replying. Cathie Wood disagrees on the basis of all the other technology....apparently. I haven't looked at it that closely but I'm aware it has or had an eye watering PE ratio.

What do you see as being the trigger for failure? Or is there no such trigger but instead a slow painful death where historic market share is unsustainable? Or some other issue such as governance etc?

https://cathiewoodstocks.com/

Ferg, any further thoughts on Cathy?

[Walter]

Its going ok thanks!

It's great that your short term thesis is playing out, Elon's mouth and Twitter purchase has helped. Not that the falls are Tesla specific, you would have done as well or better shorting Ryman, Meta, Amazon, Ford etc. The drop in price means that I am happy to slowly increase my exposure - the plan is 5-10% of my portfolio, but I'm in no hurry. I've mentioned before that I'm less pessimistic about Tesla's future than you. I think Q4 22 will be ok, but Q1 23 to be very poor.