TSLA - Tesla Motors

[Walter]

Chapter 11 I'd say

What do you think will tip them over the edge? the cash in the bank? the positive cashflows? the diverse and growing income steams? or the efficient factories?

[Dassets]

Actually it isn't as rosy as you think. I have mentioned this stuff before.

The cash in the bank isn't really true cash available. The company holds deposits on cars which is cash provided by buyers. I did the calc but can't remember off hand what the amount was but it is lots. Any thing like tesla underwritten insurance or warrantee also requires cash. Then the current payables account for the bulk of the rest of the cash leaving about $3B. Problem is Tesla has started to generate inventorywhich isnt immediately delivered. This will get worse and that needs a lot of cash. Thr buyback of cars or leased cars returning is a growing problem. Used values are falling. Finally each of the ten plants he wants to open by 2030 cist around $5B each with around another $2B in working cap. The price cuts in China and looks like elsewhere is cutting margins.

Revenue is definitely not diversified. It is highly concentrated on 3 models all consumer products. Semi trucks are obviously not commercially viable atm and cyber truck .. . My guess you will not like.

Don't forget the consumer slowdown.

Institutions still arent buying at these levels in any serious way.

Tesla cant issue bonds, no take in the market.

[nztx]

Holy heck - TSLA down over 66.67% in 15 months (ie it's lost 2/3 of its adjusted Share price value)

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA?p=TSLA

[Crypto Crude]

What do you think will tip them over the edge? the cash in the bank? the positive cashflows? the diverse and growing income steams? or the efficient factories?

It's only a theory it seems pretty plausible to me....
Musk is exposing the underbelly elite with the Twitter files releases... they will rug pull him and wont help finance Tesla.... these investors will also sell out...
Its also coming out that Tesla vehicles are not as good as thought...the batteries aren't that flash... people could also be waking up to climate change
Switzerland has banned ev cars apparently...
Musk has bitten off more than he can chew with all his projects perhaps he should sell the robo taxi business... free up cashflow... 400ish billion dollar company is huge...
Could be just a weak bounce here then downwards it continues.. Regardless... this is a good test case... profiteering from it or not doesn't matter..

[Ferg]

Switzerland has banned ev cars apparently...

I think it is thinking about it.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/96021433.cms

[Crypto Crude]

EV cars are a one big hoo Har.....
I've seen recent videos from USA showing it costed more to charge a car than it would to fill it with gas....
It's just the same footprint if not more... instead of petrol it just piles more pressure on the main power grid with charging... they are not adding capacity to the power grid...

Be super careful about Tesla... understandable there should be a bounce... but 400ish billion market cap is still huge for a company with no real profits.....
After musk exposes mainstream, tesla failing is the only thing that now makes sense.....

where is teslagod...?

[Walter]

Holy heck - TSLA down over 66.67% in 15 months (ie it's lost 2/3 of its adjusted Share price value)

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA?p=TSLA

Right up there with "dogs" like Ryman, but not as much as some FAANG stocks like META.

[pedro.nz]

Sold 1.3 million cars in 2022 - 40% increase on the year before which in my opinion is not too bad given the current market conditions. Reporting on Jan 25th so will certainly be interesting to see the figures…

[pedro.nz]

Also, they are planning to host an Investor Day on 1st March.
Will be live streamed from the Texas gigafactory and they will be displaying their most advanced production line. Long term expansion plans, generation 3 platform and capital allocation are some of the other subjects to be discussed…

[Walter]

EV cars are a one big hoo Har.....
I've seen recent videos from USA showing it costed more to charge a car than it would to fill it with gas....
It's just the same footprint if not more... instead of petrol it just piles more pressure on the main power grid with charging... they are not adding capacity to the power grid...

Be super careful about Tesla... understandable there should be a bounce... but 400ish billion market cap is still huge for a company with no real profits.....
After musk exposes mainstream, tesla failing is the only thing that now makes sense.....

where is teslagod...?

In USA charging on a roadtrip may be similar to paying for gas, but most people charge for much less at home for their daily needs.
They charge off peak at cheap rates, not when everyone has their aircon on.
I expect the growth rate to moderate, but here is their sales history
2012: 2.7K2013: 22.5K (+733.3%)2014: 31.7K (+40.9%)2015: 50.6K (+59.6%)2016: 76.2K (+50.6%)2017: 101.3K (+32.9%)2018: 245.2K (+142.1%)2019: 367.5K (+49.9%)2020: 499.6K (+36%)2021: 936.2K (+87.4%)2022: 1.31 Million (+39.9%)

There is much noise about their Q4 delivery miss - they have about 70,000 cars in transit, at shops or in storage
That is 13 days sales.
I actually expect Q1 to be brutal. Energy may save it though