TSLA - Tesla Motors

**Dassets** · 04-01-2023, 09:50 PM

Originally Posted by Dassets

Hi, a quarterly miss doesn't really mean much on its own. However for me it is quite obvious the reasons for the miss are much more the real story. I was playing safe due to my concerns about Musk selling in a structured way so reduced my short from 900 to 400 this morning. Don't regret rebuying shorts but I am now am confident from this result I have a good handle on the company.

I am going to build a bigger more permanent position. Finished product inventory over the next 12 months will keep growing.
There are downgrades happening. However that doesn't matter because retail buys it until they don't.
.

Note my comment re inventory build up. My earlier comments point out the issue with this. It is a permanent development and will suck capital. For instance the inventory build up for Q4 sucks up another US$1bil, yes that is right. That is probably now $1.5BIL in inventory build-up for Q3 and Q4. Cash is basically accounted for, ie no buy-back or meaningful one. Might be a pretend one.

**Walter** · 06-01-2023, 11:09 AM

Yes, with growth has come logistics and inventory issues. There were 3k cars sitting at Berlin airport waiting to be shipped to Taiwan. There are 4k cars waiting to get into Australia. Those two minor markets alone account for 10% of the 70K in transit, at delivery centres, at factories or in showrooms.
New Zealander Tom Zhu has now been put in charge of global production. He has done a fine job getting Shanghai humming, hopefully he will get Texas to rapidly ramp.
There are now new Tesla battery production facilities in Shanghai, Berlin and Texas that are yet to pull their weight. If they can get the new tech viable Tesla battery costs will plumet.
February 2021 was when Tom mentioned designing a car for China. From memory, the Shanghai Research and Development Centre started in October 2021 as did the Shanghai Data Centre. It would be foolhardy to assume they have spent the last year and a half doing nothing.
One way or another Tesla is always an entertaining company.

**Walter** · 06-01-2023, 11:21 AM

Originally Posted by Crypto Crude

It's only a theory it seems pretty plausible to me....
Musk is exposing the underbelly elite with the Twitter files releases... they will rug pull him and wont help finance Tesla.... these investors will also sell out...
Its also coming out that Tesla vehicles are not as good as thought...the batteries aren't that flash... people could also be waking up to climate change
Switzerland has banned ev cars apparently...
Musk has bitten off more than he can chew with all his projects perhaps he should sell the robo taxi business... free up cashflow... 400ish billion dollar company is huge...
Could be just a weak bounce here then downwards it continues.. Regardless... this is a good test case... profiteering from it or not doesn't matter..

You might be right on the politics side of things, although I think the bulls are too paranoid about the risk.
There is much shouting about how the new tax credit cuts out much of Tesla. They have gone from no cars getting it to some getting it. The credit does appear intellectually challenged. $79,999 hybrids are getting $7,500. Ford Mache E and the new GM Equinox are capped at $55K for the credit. Tesla Model Y is capped at $55K, unless it has 7 seats, then it is capped at $80K. VW ID4 gets the $80K cap if it is AWD. The rules breach many trade agreements anyway, so it's wait and see. It appears to me that Tesla will benefit, just not as much as the uberbulls hoped.
There was a report released showing Tesla in California employs massive amount of people at higher-than-average wages and pays lots of tax. Perhaps that will temper some of the hate, but probably not.

**nztx** · 20-01-2023, 03:18 AM

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-...rial/101874512

Elon Musk depicted as liar and visionary in damages trial over 'false' Tesla tweet

The prospect of a $US72 billion ($104 billion) buyout fuelled a rally in the company's stock price that abruptly ended a week later after it became apparent that he did not have the funding to pull off the deal after all.

Tesla shareholders then sued him, saying Tesla shares would not have swung so widely in value if he had not dangled the idea of buying the company for $US420 per share.

Nicholas Porritt, a lawyer representing Glen Littleton and other Tesla shareholders in the class-action case, criticised Mr Musk as he addressed jurors.

"Why are we here?" Mr Porritt asked.

"We are here because Elon Musk, chairman and chief executive of Tesla, lied.

"His lies caused regular people like Glen Littleton to lose millions and millions of dollars."

Hey Elon - it's a special tailor made CLASS ACTION from your TESLA shareholders left damaged

Enjoy

**Dassets** · 25-01-2023, 08:11 AM

I have started shorting this thing again, only retail buying, raw materials are heading up, only the US cars making money, ROW isn't. Expect work to start on cheaper car, what is the point aftetr the price cuts. Over 40 EVs will be launched this year again. Bringing the offering to 80+ . 2023 EPS estimates already down 30% over the last 90 days.

**pedro.nz** · 25-01-2023, 11:58 AM

4th qtr results after tomorrows session.
And probably formal announcement of new factory in Nevada for semi truck.

**Walter** · 25-01-2023, 04:14 PM

Originally Posted by pedro.nz

4th qtr results after tomorrows session.
And probably formal announcement of new factory in Nevada for semi truck.

Tesla is committing US$3.5Billion to build their "FIRST high volume Semi factory".
Dassets assures us the Semi will be a failure, one of them will be wrong.
Part of the investment will be a 100 GWh 4680 battery factory, Tesla are slow learners, they have underperforming scale battery plants in Texas, Berlin, Shanghai and Nevada. What are they thinking?