TSLA - Tesla Motors

[Arthur]

About a year ago I took at tiny position in Tesla - cost $49 a share. I'm generally a value investor and felt the recent valuations were excessive, so over the last few months I've sold half my holding at about 5 times what I paid.
Like it or not EVs are going to replace ICE cars, legacy manufacturers (particularly in Germany) have alot of costly baggage. In the test market of Norway EVs are already at 70% of the market. Market share is rapidly increasing in the Netherlands and Germany it is mid teens, in France and UK about 10%.
Renault has the popular Zoe, The Koreans have great little cars and VW will turn up to the party with ID3 and ID4. China is coming to Europe with Polestar and MG.
Here are my predictions so that I can be ridiculed with hindsight....
There will be more than a million EVs sold in Europe (including UK) in 2021
Tesla will increase sales in Europe in 2021, but loose EV market share.
Tesla will sell more than 250,000 cars in China in 2021. The price there will drop as they move towards 100% local, they will sell more than 350,000 Tesla in China in 2022.
Tesla will sell more vehicles in 2023 than BMW.
Tesla will sell more than 150,000 Cybertruck in 2022
Tesla's energy business will rapidly accelerate and generate significant profits within two years.

[Gerald]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/08/jim-...the-table.html

Today: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/09/jim-...ur-toe-in.html

Throwback: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9Eb...ture=emb_title

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TSLA down 20% yesterday, up 10% today. Almost like a roulette table :o

[Arthur]

You are correct Beagle. There is a gush of new EVs coming, but they will eat ICE sales rather than kill Tesla.
The new VW group EV cars make much more sense to many than buying a ICE VW.
Next year I estimate VW ID3/ID4 will take a third of VW Golf sales in the UK (they sold about 60,000 Golf last year).
Take a look at Lucid Air and speculate on which German luxury carmaker is going to loose the most sales in USA.

[k14]

Pop goes the bubble - down 34% in the last few days. Its like a game of musical chairs or a Ponzi scheme, you don't want to be left holding the crying baby when the music stops.

There's a vast range of new electric vehicles coming out in the next few years from companies that know how to build them in a high quality way.

Reality will bite shareholders in a major way in the years ahead...its only just started in my opinion.

But but but.... tech company, elon is awesome, it can only go up!

I'll be very surprised if this is the last ramp. I loved the theory that the reason Tesla wasn't added to the S&P 500 was because index fund managers asked them to hold off so they can buy some more stocks before they are forced to add them when it does get added.

[Beagle]

I wouldn't underestimate the brand power of the likes of BMW, Mercedes Benz and the VW group who are bringing a lot of EV's to the market in the near future. These are aspirational brands that are extremely well known. Very few people keep their cars longer than 15 years so in my view very few care if the battery lasts 1,000,000 miles or 300,000 miles. The Germans are offering 8 year EV battery warranties just like Tesla.

Lots of experts on CNBC this morning saying take some money off the table and sell the bounce. Okay to gamble and speculate as long as your doing it with the House's money, (i.e. sell enough stock to get your original investment back). Makes profound common sense to "free ride" something like this assuming staying in at this level is a good idea at all.

[Arthur]

What car UK, 13,000 owners executive cars reliability
Reliability for executive cars aged up to five years old
Rank Make and model Score
1. Tesla Model 3 2019-on 99.4%
2. Skoda Superb petrol 2016-on 98.3%
3. Mazda 6 2013-on 98.0%
4. Vauxhall Insignia 2008-2017 97.8%
5. BMW 3 Series petrol 2012-2019 97.3%
6. Ford Mondeo 2014-on 97.0%
7. Kia Optima 2016-on 96.7%
8. Audi A3 Saloon 2013-2020 96.3%
9. Volvo V60 2013-on 95.1%
10. BMW 3 Series diesel 2012-2019 95.0%
11. Jaguar XE 2015-on 94.7%
12. BMW 3 Series 2019-on 94.4%
13. Audi A4 petrol 2015-on 93.5%
14. Alfa Romeo Giulia 2016-on 93.1%
15. Skoda Superb diesel 2016-on 93.0%
16. Volkswagen Passat 2015-on 92.1%
17. Audi A4 diesel 2015-on 89.8%

18. Vauxhall Insignia Grand Sport 2017-on 87.4%

19. Mercedes C-Class 2014-on 87.3%

[Beagle]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/09/elec...-on-tesla.html

I suspect its Tesla that's going to lose more than a few sales. German and American car manufacturing standards are VERY different, (I have owned examples of each).

[Arthur]

I was wondering where Tesla was going to get the estimated 40,000 staff needed over the next few years in Germany from, but I see Daimler alone is looking to loose 30,000. BMW is targeting loosing 16,000, so they might get a few from there and Poland is only about an hour away (Polish workers are already building much of the Drive Unit roof)
https://www.mercedes-fans.de/magazin...n-gefahr.16177

[Beagle]

https://www.driven.co.nz/news/tesla-...ampaign=topbox

Surprised the Tesla zealots haven't worked themselves up into a frenzy over this on here already https://www.driven.co.nz/news/tesla-...ampaign=topbox

[Arthur]

A number of gamblers and incels (who seem to have expected a free girlfriend with every car) are disappointed and selling out. I might have to buy back in if it drops much. Shanghai is now looking like a million cars a year within a few years, Berlin is not far behind. Texas will be producing next year and Energy is about to go ballistic. The "crazies" (like Ark) are looking more rational every day.