TSLA - Tesla Motors

[pedro.nz]

Only losing if you realise it

Of course, but it still hurts a bit to see your picks go in the wrong direction dosn't it

[pedro.nz]

I suspect he may not have been genuine, may have been a pumper on chatrooms all around the world. Believe it, that has been happening for 20 years. Today crypto and Tesla are the stars but how do you think Gamestop and AMC ever happened. I emphasize it is only a suspicion. I challenged him on a few things he said and the answers evaded dealing with the core question. He could have established his bona fides very easily but never did.

Organised crime certainly is active. Joking aside, it featured in The Sopranos for a while 20 years ago as a scam they were running. Where do you think the scrip writers for that show got most of their ideas from that they based a storyline on. Given the ability to electronically operate anywhere in the world and shield yourself it could be anyone anywhere, not necessarily just the Bada Bing Club guys.

Yes, it's very easy for rampers, trolls, etc etc to hide themselves electronically these days so it can be hard to know what's genuine these days.
This is the only forum I regularly read and have noticed over the last few years that it has become less and less about the stock market and good research mores the pity...
Anyway, enough from me, back to this threads subject matter...

Wondering why this stock dropped so much on what I thought was a reasonable result...

Positives...
1. Two new giga factories opening soon
2. EPS beat predictions - rose 217% YOY
3. Revenue beat predictions - rose 64.9% YOY
4. Vehicle deliveries for FY2021 rose 87.4%

Negatives...
1. Supply chain issues will probably the biggest issue for 2022
2. No new models in the near future including Cybertrucks, Commercial trucks and cheap EV's around the $25,000 mark
3. Current market sentiment - NASDAQ down over 15% in the last month

[hereweare]

Of course, but it still hurts a bit to see your picks go in the wrong direction dosn't it

Oh for sure, it certainly does, don’t get me wrong. But I invest long term so it doesn’t worry me.

[hereweare]

Yes, it's very easy for rampers, trolls, etc etc to hide themselves electronically these days so it can be hard to know what's genuine these days.
This is the only forum I regularly read and have noticed over the last few years that it has become less and less about the stock market and good research mores the pity...
Anyway, enough from me, back to this threads subject matter...

Wondering why this stock dropped so much on what I thought was a reasonable result...

Positives...
1. Two new giga factories opening soon
2. EPS beat predictions - rose 217% YOY
3. Revenue beat predictions - rose 64.9% YOY
4. Vehicle deliveries for FY2021 rose 87.4%

Negatives...
1. Supply chain issues will probably the biggest issue for 2022
2. No new models in the near future including Cybertrucks, Commercial trucks and cheap EV's around the $25,000 mark
3. Current market sentiment - NASDAQ down over 15% in the last month

From my quick research it’s mainly due to no new EV offerings this year.

I don’t mind it, means I get a longer opportunity to buy more.

[Walter]

Yes, it's very easy for rampers, trolls, etc etc to hide themselves electronically these days so it can be hard to know what's genuine these days.
This is the only forum I regularly read and have noticed over the last few years that it has become less and less about the stock market and good research mores the pity...
Anyway, enough from me, back to this threads subject matter...

Wondering why this stock dropped so much on what I thought was a reasonable result...

Positives...
1. Two new giga factories opening soon
2. EPS beat predictions - rose 217% YOY
3. Revenue beat predictions - rose 64.9% YOY
4. Vehicle deliveries for FY2021 rose 87.4%

Negatives...
1. Supply chain issues will probably the biggest issue for 2022
2. No new models in the near future including Cybertrucks, Commercial trucks and cheap EV's around the $25,000 mark
3. Current market sentiment - NASDAQ down over 15% in the last month

A couple of positives that you missed
They will be using both front and rear castings at the new Texas factory along with the new battery (lowers costs)
I think the model Y with structural pack is a new product
They are happy enough to proceed with the new battery (this is earlier than Tesla predicted)
Energy will ramp - it has been starved as cars are higher profit (subject to chip availability)
There are a number of "one off" expenses in the accounts, my estimate is the next quarter these will drop about $500 million
They are very confident FSD will be solved this year (no matter on the timeline - this is huge if they are correct)
They have already released the Semi in small quantities, I expect it to ramp in quarter 4 (subject to chips)
The humanoid emphasis shows they think they have solved the bigger BEV issues (cybertruck manufacture aside)

The cherry on top would be a new green BBB with a BEV incentive getting voted in. I think that Biden is starting to realise that he will lose what ever control he had of the House and Senate soon. I put that at about 30%.

[pedro.nz]

Thanks Walter - good points...

Had a quick trade this morning - managed $15 per share
Too chicken to stay in longer at the moment - things are too volatile on many fronts...

[pedro.nz]

Have just read this - the race is on...

GM's Mary Barra: First Ride In Driverless Car Beyond Incredible (msn.com)

[Dassets]

I think the issue is really about the lack of new models esp SUV and no current work on Tesla 2. The CyberTruck to me looks a dog. The "styling" is pure 1970s sci-fi. Go check out an episode of Logan's Run for those that never saw it or erased it from memory. It would be fascinating to see consumer test marketing especially now alternatives are in the market. Put up the photos, feel etc of F150 vs Cybertruck to people and see what they would choose. Ask yourself would you buy one? Or an EV Range Rover or an EV Ranger

My guess is the delay is not by choice, how could it be? Tesla needs a SUV/pickup/crossover offering in the US market, that is 70% of the market. Luxury car/mid-size is only 15%. The reality is competition, while very slow out of the blocks, has finished development of their broad platforms. I would love to see how many Tesla owners actually buy again vs other brands rather than just intend.

The other 2 things which were odd, 50% sales growth until 2030 means it gets to 28m vehicles, half of all production globally of all sorts of cars,. the cheapest indian or chinese car to the most expensive. Really? And lastly focusing on the robot, how about prove up the car business first. Market cap at at a point in time does not equal business success btw.

So where do the stock buyers come from, portfolio players either insto or individual - maybe, big corporate position takers(no chance), sellers, those that have over 50% of net wealth in Tesla and rebalance- probably, staff - yes, not many others. The passives don't need to re-balance. So if I weigh it up I can't see the reason to be long. But everyone has an opinion.

[dln]

focusing on the robot

Anybody that thinks the "robot" is anything more than a joke is living in an alternate reality.

[Walter]

Good points Dassets. The Cybertruck design is different, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. Over 1.5 million have preordered it, but I expect many of those to melt away. If 10% follow through it will still be a reasonable seller. If it is as functional as claimed it will be interesting to see if traditional truck owners are "man enough" to buy it. Hopefully at that stage GM and Ford will have more traditional BEV trucks being built in numbers. Rivian appears to have a great truck, that just can't make them yet.

Tesla has very high satisfaction rates from owners. For what it is worth the latest JD Powell survey showed " Being among the United States’ best-selling premium electric cars, the Tesla Model 3, Model Y, and Model S scored very well in JD Power’s EV satisfaction survey. The Model 3 topped the “Premium Battery Electric Vehicle” list with a score of 777 out of 1,000; the Model Y was close behind with 740 points, and the Model S scored a very respectable 756. Interestingly enough, the Ford Mustang Mach-E was placed in the “Mass Market Battery Electric Vehicle” category. Ford’s electric pony garnered an impressive 741 points out of 1,000." The expensive Audi Etron got 718. Bloomberg has showed similar results and it has been replicated in Germany.
The energy business is yet to contribute to profits, it has been sacrificed for cars, but this should change. There is also a move into insurance and several other smaller irons in the fire.
The big one will be whether they can crack automated driving. You may think there is zero chance, Elon would say 100%. They are certainly throwing many resources at it. They now have 60,000 beta trainers on the road, plus more than a million testing in shadow mode. Unprofitable Uber is valued at over $68 billion. Could Tesla clip the ticket on a driverless car?