Auckland housing market

[artemis]

Not necessarily, if the housing market went flat for 10 years like it has in the past many might think that was a good thing. I was content when the pop was around 3M, since then we now have more crowded beaches, more traffic congestion, Auckland water supplies from Hamilton waste crapped into the Waikato river, and well the beautiful sight that is a much greater South Auckland, .......... Well, yes, and a shortage of housing of course. I don't believe we are on the eve of destruction, but it would seem that it shouldn't just keep going.

There's lots of tradeoffs needed. It's not as simple as capping the population. People want more (healthcare, border control, research, graduates, support for the poor, social housing, improved private rentals, minimum wage increase, roads, cycleways, trainsets ... ), many worthy causes. The funding will come from borrowing or growth or cutting back elsewhere. Surely the most palatable is growth? That means matching skilled NZers or migrants with employers who want to maintain or expand, and pay tax. And most migrants have to pass the skills test.

[MAC]

There's lots of tradeoffs needed. It's not as simple as capping the population. People want more (healthcare, border control, research, graduates, support for the poor, social housing, improved private rentals, minimum wage increase, roads, cycleways, trainsets ... ), many worthy causes. The funding will come from borrowing or growth or cutting back elsewhere. Surely the most palatable is growth? That means matching skilled NZers or migrants with employers who want to maintain or expand, and pay tax. And most migrants have to pass the skills test.

Agree that economies are complex and dynamic, though desirable skills can be obtained through more private sector training than we have, there's a desire for skills but a reluctance to train, and a better focused education system in some areas also.

And, yes through immigration, though it doesn't have to be immigration growth and a greater population.

Those leaving for what ever reason can adequately be replaced by those arriving with selected desired skills, with a net balance.

[BFG]

Read an interrsting article yesterday about the amount of childless couples/singles on the rise worldwide due to work/study commitments or financial decisions. Being one of these people, by choice, it makes me wonder what future demand there will be for the typical Kiwi home of yesteryear with 4+ bedrooms? This could result in much cheaper housing with fewer rooms and bigger, more expensivr houses being neglected/abandoned.

Food for thought...

[skid]

Small houses need cheap land--With expensive land (like in Auckland) Its either a big expensive house-or multi dwelling, like apartments or attached townhouses.

[Zaphod]

I think it is already happening to a point... and to mix a metaphor, the government does not want to stop the music as the whole house of cards could come crashing down!

IMO it's a fine balancing act. Any government that substantially brought down the price of housing in either Auckland or throughout New Zealand, would be kicked out at the next election. We want lower housing prices, but at the same time we don't want to lose the value of our investment. Perhaps the best long term (politically expedient) solution is simply to stabilize prices while simultaneously growing incomes.

[MAC]

Yep, it’s definitely time for a flat 10 years in the housing market.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/n...ectid=11391028

It would seem sensible that the government engineer a soft landing, by LVR, cutting immigration, restricting foreign ownership, preferably all of those things until household debt ratios return to what they were in 1990 or thereabouts.

All New Zealander's will prosper from having lower debt ratios, and there are other markets in which to invest for those whom have been obsessed with real estate.

Household Debt.jpg

[artemis]

Couple with no children and two incomes probably collect even more stuff than the average family! So they may need an even larger place to live. Plus they can afford bigger and better.

[Bjauck]

Small houses need cheap land--With expensive land (like in Auckland) Its either a big expensive house-or multi dwelling, like apartments or attached townhouses.

True and in recent times with the increasing divergence of wealth the number of people per dwelling has actually been increasing with more multi family households and people staying in flatting situations or with parents because of worsening home affordability. At the wealthy end of the scale...increasingly McMansions are being built on small expensive sections.

[Bjauck]

IMO it's a fine balancing act. Any government that substantially brought down the price of housing in either Auckland or throughout New Zealand, would be kicked out at the next election. We want lower housing prices, but at the same time we don't want to lose the value of our investment. Perhaps the best long term (politically expedient) solution is simply to stabilize prices while simultaneously growing incomes.

The wild West NZ stock market in the 1980's helped turn off a generation of investors from share investments, their wealth has ended up in real estate. MP's who are also of that same generation (and who have real estate investments in their family trusts!) are scared to do anything that may impact that real estate wealth.

[artemis]

True and in recent times with the increasing divergence of wealth the number of people per dwelling has actually been increasing with more multi family households and people staying in flatting situations or with parents because of worsening home affordability. At the wealthy end of the scale...increasingly McMansions are being built on small expensive sections.

Maybe but the average household size at 2.7 (2013 census) has changed very little since 1996 when it was 2.8. A blunt instrument but at least based on evidence.