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Originally Posted by moosie_900
Sorry, it seems there was speculation within the mediaand I misread it as a certainty! Sorry all!
Moosie - You don't seem to be the only one who 'misread' it
http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/69...restrictions-l
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PPI (Producers Price Index) out yesterday
From Stats NZ -
Annual change
In the March 2014 quarter, compared with the March 2013 quarter:
The output PPI increased 4.0 percent.
The input PPI increased 3.1 percent.
CPI generally follows the PPI
No further commenting
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Looks like we will be OK ......64% of 118 who replied to the Expectations Survey
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/tables/m14/
Extract -
Both one and two-year-ahead expectations of annual Consumers Price Index (CPI) inflation are little moved since last quarter. The one-year series increased from 2.03 to 2.08 percent on a mean basis. The median is unchanged at 2.00 percent.
Likewise, the two-year series barely moved this quarter, increasing from 2.33 percent to 2.36 percent. However, the median increased from 2.30 to 2.35 percent.
Respondents are also asked what they believe quarterly CPI inflation will be for the current and next quarters. A quarterly percentage increase of 0.47 percent is expected for the June 2014 quarter (0.54 percent last survey), and 0.59 percent for the September 2014 quarter. These expected quarterly increases imply annual inflation rates of 1.9 and 1.5 percent for the years to June 2014 and September 2014 respectively.
Also GDP expectations not that of a rock star economy, labour costs to go up, unemployment to fall, higher interest rates and a lower NZD. Can't be all that bad
Last edited by winner69; 22-05-2014 at 05:35 PM.
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Originally Posted by moosie_900
I can't believe they U-turned on the LVR.
Yeah so much for the RB's "It's been really effective," PR line.
So somebody has been in the RB's ear and told Wheeler that the LVR speed limit is just hurting everywhere in NZ outside of the hot property markets.
The UK is discussing LVR right now (or equivalents) and have already concluded it was a stupid idea as it made it very difficult indeed for people to get mortgages even outside London.
warthog ... muddy and smelly
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Originally Posted by turmeric
What data is this based on?
Check the first paragraph of the PDF you linked.
Also, if it is so effective, why is everybody, including the RB, signalling hikes in the OCR to cool the housing market?
warthog ... muddy and smelly
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Originally Posted by belgarion
warthog, FYI - the UK banks enforce LVR ratios themselves and have done for years.
In NZ/AU yes. For now! If left to their own devices, as elsewhere, they will blow themselves up.
E.g. When I applied for a 95% mortgage the normalised rate offered (i.e. with mortgage indemnity insurance capitalised into the loan amount) was huge - circa 2.5% above what I'd have got with a 25% deposit. And this was with only 20% of our combined incomes servicing the debt which I could have serviced on my own income alone at less than 50%. ... The UK and Europe (and the US for that matter) are very different to NZ and Oz.
Yes indeed. The hog was once offered a 120% mortgage with some thousands in cash as an incentive by a large anglo-saxon bank.
warthog ... muddy and smelly
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Originally Posted by turmeric
Different policy tools different objectives mate. Suggest you have a read up of the details of both and why they are employed.
As for the first paragraph it says nothing in regards to your very bold statement let alone provides any data. Can I assume that your statement is simply your opinion? If so, duly noted. If not, Im interested in the source of data that substantiates your claim.
If it is so effective, why is it likely to be canned?
The RB does not have a particularly robust track-record for managing interest rates, inflation and the housing market.
warthog ... muddy and smelly
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Originally Posted by turmeric
We have been over this before, there is some info in this thread that will clear things up for you.
What specifically are you referring to?
warthog ... muddy and smelly
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Originally Posted by turmeric
Sorry mate, didn't see your post.
So just to clarify, you were saying the LVRs haven't been effective
No, never said that. They are effective, but the impact blows out to areas where maybe increased house ownership may be preferable.
you say the LVRs are likely going to be canned - where are you getting this information from?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-f...ectid=11252242
http://auckland.scoop.co.nz/2014/05/...ctions-may-go/
http://www.landlords.co.nz/article/5...lauds-lvr-move
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/reserve...says-bd-155881
http://assuredproperty.co.nz/lvr-rul...o-by-year-end/
Of course, this could all be hot air.
warthog ... muddy and smelly
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Originally Posted by turmeric
The place I do agree with you on is the regional aspect of the LVRs. The RBNZ have outlined the basis for their decision in this respect on one of the documents I posted.
What I will say though is that the housing issue needs to be tackled effectively jointly by central and local governments. Im pretty happy that the RBNZ has done about as much as they can to help NZs housing problem. Central and local governments are the ones who have been slacking,the supply issue is a massive one and some traction should have been made on this long ago. Its not like it was an issue that came out of no-where. Housing supply in AUCK for example has been an issue for some time now.
There is NO supply issue in Auckland
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/d...tage-nzierhtml
Westpac report 'Where Should We Build Now' sugests that Wellington andvTasman aren't building enough houses
Canterbury is a story in its own right
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