Auckland housing market

[Beagle]

I was surprised at how high the prices are in Kerikeri when I was up there recently. Nice place though and good weather.
Whangarei has more job opportunities, warm weather and is cheap.

[fungus pudding]

Amazing tirade from Mike Hosking this morning on the radio saying how useless the RBNZ has been with its LVR restrictions and how they stuffed a whole generation of NZers and how the RBNZ couldn't forecast their way out of a paper bag

Quite passionate was Mike

Can't fid it on online yet but often his tirades are put up or all to listen to

All Newstalkzb's broadcasts are available on replay 'week on demand' for 7 days.

[RTM]

I was surprised at how high the prices are in Kerikeri when I was up there recently. Nice place though and good weather.
Whangarei has more job opportunities, warm weather and is cheap.

Yes... the prices have held reasonably well, but still significantly lower than Auckland. Personally I think that's a good thing, one does not want to live in a totally depressed low cost area.(Moerewa anyone?) Of the smaller towns in the North I predict / hope that Kerikeri will be one to prosper as older folk bail out of Auckland. Enough shopping, a few places for decent coffee, Restaurants, Movie theatre, Turner Center, Placemakers, Bunnings. And then there is the abundance of out door stuff easily accessible. Love it !

Jobs....well...I reckon work is well over rated.

Cheers.

[skid]

Thats a good endorsement ,seeing you are from there.
I reckon older folk swapping the Auckland house for one in KK with some dosh left over,is a realistic scenario.

[Goldstein]

Thats a good endorsement ,seeing you are from there.
I reckon older folk swapping the Auckland house for one in KK with some dosh left over,is a realistic scenario.

It's been my reitrement plan for a while now. My autumn holidays are usually up North, and I usually have a look at real-estate while I'm there.

I may even make the move earlier as I currently work from home. There's some wonderful spots north of Auckland.

[MAC]

I think perhaps Mr Gaynor is overlooking the most significant headwind for the housing market.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11390463

New Zealanders have 73% of their assets in housing, that figure may be higher or lower for the baby boomers, who would really know.

But, they will be starting to downsize from about here on, and as a demographic, many if not most, will need to sell that empty family home and buy something of lower value, as many if not most, will need to start drawing an income from what was their housing assets.

Baby boomers: Born between 1946 and 1964, aged now between 51 and 69.

After a couple of years of travel and kicking about the empty nest, those 69 year olds will be initiating the downward spiral anytime about now.

We’ve seen a secular bull market in housing for 20 odd years, in part pushed along by the wealthiest generation in history pumping 73% of their free cash into the housing market.

Perhaps we will now start to see a secular bear market of similar duration whilst they now suck it out again ?

[mikeybycrikey]

I think perhaps Mr Gaynor is overlooking the most significant headwind for the housing market.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11390463

I'd like to hear what Mr Gaynor actually said without the unhelpful editorial that they have surrounded it with. Anyone have a link to that?

I don't think the property boom will last forever but to compare it to Ireland and Spain is absurd.

I remember visiting family in Ireland in 2002 (I guess that's 5 years before the crash). Even then, the family were talking about all the houses that were being built near them, out in the country, and wondering who would be buying them. As it turns out no one was buying them but it took five years for everyone to realise that. I also remember visiting San Diego in 2008 and seeing half-built apartment blocks where work had completely stopped because of the crash.

That is completely different from here. More house-building can't be a bad thing right now and I doubt that it will ever go crazy like it did in Ireland, Spain and some parts of the US.

[BFG]

I think perhaps Mr Gaynor is overlooking the most significant headwind for the housing market.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11390463

New Zealanders have 73% of their assets in housing, that figure may be higher or lower for the baby boomers, who would really know.

But, they will be starting to downsize from about here on, and as a demographic, many if not most, will need to sell that empty family home and buy something of lower value, as many if not most, will need to start drawing an income from what was their housing assets.

Baby boomers: Born between 1946 and 1964, aged now between 51 and 69.

After a couple of years of travel and kicking about the empty nest, those 69 year olds will be initiating the downward spiral anytime about now.

We’ve seen a secular bull market in housing for 20 odd years, in part pushed along by the wealthiest generation in history pumping 73% of their free cash into the housing market.

Perhaps we will now start to see a secular bear market of similar duration whilst they now suck it out again ?

This 28 year old will be waiting at the bottom with his Gen Y cash

[MAC]

This 28 year old will be waiting at the bottom with his Gen Y cash

I think you are right Moosie, you're generation will be the big beneficiaries, the anguish for gen y though may be what to do in the interim, perhaps all just rent and wait, that in itself might become a demographic issue in itself later on.

Unfortunately, generation x like myself are well, probably mostly just buggered I suspect, mortgaged and steering into the wind ?

[BFG]

I think you are right Moosie, you're generation will be the big beneficiaries, the anguish for gen y though may be what to do in the interim, perhaps all just rent and wait, that in itself might become a demographic issue in itself later on.

Unfortunately, generation x like myself are well, probably mostly just buggered I suspect, mortgaged and steering into the wind ?

Renting and playing the stock market are by far the best bets right now as a) rents are far below mortgage costs (unless you have a substantial deposit) and b) QE is still washing over the globe. Unfortunately, the vast majority of my generation have already fallen into the "real estate and debt are the only investments out there trap". Most don't know any better.