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Thread: China

  1. #1
    Senior Member Bobcat.'s Avatar
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    Default China

    China reported today a whopping increase in its trade balance:

    18.4B surplus (!) compared to 7.7B last period. Analysts were expecting an increase but only to around 13.9B.

    Exports and Imports (YoY) are also up much higher than expected, indicating growing consumer demand.

    It's no wonder they are buying so much offshore property and gold. At this rate, they will be the world's bankers before the decade is through.
    Last edited by Bobcat.; 08-05-2014 at 03:31 PM.
    To foretell the future, one must first unlock the secrets of the past.

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    Senior Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    If I am correct, two Chinese benchmarks, the Shanghai Composite and the China Securities Index 300, came second and third in the list of best performing stock markets over the year.

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    Hi Guys,

    Looks like the Chinese stock market is starting to crash

    3 days of close to 5% drops

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...rops-for-seven

    Any Predictions on what that might mean for New Zealand - Auckland Property Market Crash perhaps ?

  4. #4
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    Parabolic moves such as seen here are destined to crash, the hard part is finding the tipping point.

    had to laugh though, I heard Chinese officials are hunting down the local funds that are shorting the snot out of the SSE (they will be charged with economic treason and shot I presume)

    then I heard they also lifted the requirements on margin calls, (so investors might stop selling!!)

    now I hear they will set up a 'stabilisation fund' to try and turn the market around.

    TA shows no real support until ~ 3200/3300 on the SSE, but it'll do whatever the authorities want it to do I guess

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    Default Chinese Stocks

    Quote Originally Posted by Xerof View Post
    Parabolic moves such as seen here are destined to crash, the hard part is finding the tipping point.

    had to laugh though, I heard Chinese officials are hunting down the local funds that are shorting the snot out of the SSE (they will be charged with economic treason and shot I presume)

    then I heard they also lifted the requirements on margin calls, (so investors might stop selling!!)

    now I hear they will set up a 'stabilisation fund' to try and turn the market around.

    TA shows no real support until ~ 3200/3300 on the SSE, but it'll do whatever the authorities want it to do I guess
    Do you really think chinese stocks are to expensive ?
    I think US stocks are several times more expensive. Specially if you look to balance sheet. LArge amounts of "GoodWill" and other bull****money. Poor of Cash flow, now growth, expensive management.
    I tnelief chinese authorities are trying to protect the companies against short seller manipulation.

    Here is tool where you can see US listed chinese stocks. Do you think they are expensive ?
    http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=11...china&o=ticker

  6. #6
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    I didn't have any opinion on relative values. I was mentioning the fallout that usually always follows parabolic moves. I did mention the short sellers and the 'protection' mechanism.

    what is your point exactly?

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    Hi Agrarinvestor , after today probably 50 % of the Chinese stocks will be in suspense.... Very hard to get a gague of where the index is or what the real value of a company is when they are suspended ..... carnage , more to come . The Government can't really help, take a look at Japan didn't really work out them keeping the index up circa 1987 .... last 20 years been going backwards ......
    From reuters "Traders are increasingly nervous about the unusually large number of Chinese companies asking for their shares to be suspended from trading, fearing that many of them are looking for excuses to duck out of the turmoil.About a quarter of the roughly 2,800 companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen had filed for a trading halt by the close on Monday, and on Tuesday the Securities Times said another 200 announced a suspension."

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    Default My Point

    Quote Originally Posted by Xerof View Post
    I didn't have any opinion on relative values. I was mentioning the fallout that usually always follows parabolic moves. I did mention the short sellers and the 'protection' mechanism.

    what is your point exactly?
    My Point is that chinese Stocks are manipulated, by US based short sellers. Shanghai Composite has a great rrally during the past 12 month. A correction of 30% was healthy.
    But is it necessary that US listed chinese stocks are thrown in the same basket ?
    If you want to see what i mean with manipulation:
    http://regsho.finra.org/regsho-Index.html
    You can see daily short selling on US stocks, have a look at my favorites:GRO(Agria/PGW),CXDC, CGA

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    An Awesome Cool Cat winner69's Avatar
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    You need to worry when you read stories about the amount of betting going on - one was about a group of guys betting on stocks on the subway on the way to work with very short time frames. One punter boasted he made the equivalent of 100k in the 30 minute ride to work. All too easy these days, easier than the casino in some countries.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    You need to worry when you read stories about the amount of betting going on - one was about a group of guys betting on stocks on the subway on the way to work with very short time frames. One punter boasted he made the equivalent of 100k in the 30 minute ride to work. All too easy these days, easier than the casino in some countries.
    69, do you ever find that the news stories always come too late?

    They get people excited about boom-time at the peak of the bubble?

    Equally, do you think they new people fearful at the time they should be greedy?

    In summary, will the SMA200 on the Shanghai Composite hold and offer a rally?

    Reminds me of the time the DJI was crashing in mid October 2014 and I was like "the SMA350, duh."

  11. #11
    Kanga ru Xerof's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by robbo24 View Post
    In summary, will the SMA200 on the Shanghai Composite hold and offer a rally?
    yes, in fact a little ahead of my suggested support level

    TA shows no real support until ~ 3200/3300 on the SSE, but it'll do whatever the authorities want it to do I guess
    but as you astutely note, at the MA200 robbo. (jeez you're on to it - do you have a mullet?)

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    Default Cga

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    You need to worry when you read stories about the amount of betting going on - one was about a group of guys betting on stocks on the subway on the way to work with very short time frames. One punter boasted he made the equivalent of 100k in the 30 minute ride to work. All too easy these days, easier than the casino in some countries.
    In my case, it's a little bit more than betting. Today i bought Kone because i expect some 20% plus and tomorrow 100%. Sounds crazy, i know. Today i added more CGA because i expect 5o% plus until September.
    CGA is a value play. Kne is the sister. Every time before earnings , and a few days later we saw 100% plus. Let's look tomorrow.

    I'am concentrated on one single company. I jave done so much research, talked to employees. I am hoping that at the end of the correction we will see a better, fairer valuation. Alll these P/E's above 30 have to be corrected.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Xerof View Post
    but as you astutely note, at the MA200 robbo. (jeez you're on to it - do you have a mullet?)
    No mullet, but for a short period of time in an evening of 2003 I had a dreadlock mullet. Kind of like a PHD of mullets.

    A few months ago I read a story about HFT computer servers being moved into China. Whole offices of HFT servers.

    In my experience HFTs usually just use pretty simple patterns and chart/TA points to make their moves - just got to hazard a guess which one it will be I wonder how many HFT operators will be arrested?

    So large institutions are banned from selling, "malicious shorters" are banned from selling, lending interest rates are cut, the omnipotent Chinese government is demanding their institutions buy stocks and they can't sell... These things don't make a difference overnight, give it a week or two and the China bubble may very well be back stronger than ever

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    Default Kone plus 100%

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    You need to worry when you read stories about the amount of betting going on - one was about a group of guys betting on stocks on the subway on the way to work with very short time frames. One punter boasted he made the equivalent of 100k in the 30 minute ride to work. All too easy these days, easier than the casino in some countries.
    As i told you:
    >>and a few days later we saw 100% plus. Let's look tomorrow.<<

    bought on Thursday for 3,75$ , sold on the next day for 7,10$. It happens every time when they announce earnings, crazy.

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    Interesting article by Alicia Garcia-Herrero at Bruegel.org
    http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detai.../#republishing
    Last edited by kiora; 17-07-2015 at 05:43 AM.

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