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Thread: China

  1. #1
    Senior Member Bobcat.'s Avatar
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    Default China

    China reported today a whopping increase in its trade balance:

    18.4B surplus (!) compared to 7.7B last period. Analysts were expecting an increase but only to around 13.9B.

    Exports and Imports (YoY) are also up much higher than expected, indicating growing consumer demand.

    It's no wonder they are buying so much offshore property and gold. At this rate, they will be the world's bankers before the decade is through.
    Last edited by Bobcat.; 08-05-2014 at 03:31 PM.
    To foretell the future, one must first unlock the secrets of the past.

  2. #2
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    If I am correct, two Chinese benchmarks, the Shanghai Composite and the China Securities Index 300, came second and third in the list of best performing stock markets over the year.

  3. #3
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    Hi Guys,

    Looks like the Chinese stock market is starting to crash

    3 days of close to 5% drops

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...rops-for-seven

    Any Predictions on what that might mean for New Zealand - Auckland Property Market Crash perhaps ?

  4. #4
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Parabolic moves such as seen here are destined to crash, the hard part is finding the tipping point.

    had to laugh though, I heard Chinese officials are hunting down the local funds that are shorting the snot out of the SSE (they will be charged with economic treason and shot I presume)

    then I heard they also lifted the requirements on margin calls, (so investors might stop selling!!)

    now I hear they will set up a 'stabilisation fund' to try and turn the market around.

    TA shows no real support until ~ 3200/3300 on the SSE, but it'll do whatever the authorities want it to do I guess

  5. #5
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    Default Chinese Stocks

    Quote Originally Posted by Xerof View Post
    Parabolic moves such as seen here are destined to crash, the hard part is finding the tipping point.

    had to laugh though, I heard Chinese officials are hunting down the local funds that are shorting the snot out of the SSE (they will be charged with economic treason and shot I presume)

    then I heard they also lifted the requirements on margin calls, (so investors might stop selling!!)

    now I hear they will set up a 'stabilisation fund' to try and turn the market around.

    TA shows no real support until ~ 3200/3300 on the SSE, but it'll do whatever the authorities want it to do I guess
    Do you really think chinese stocks are to expensive ?
    I think US stocks are several times more expensive. Specially if you look to balance sheet. LArge amounts of "GoodWill" and other bull****money. Poor of Cash flow, now growth, expensive management.
    I tnelief chinese authorities are trying to protect the companies against short seller manipulation.

    Here is tool where you can see US listed chinese stocks. Do you think they are expensive ?
    http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=11...china&o=ticker

  6. #6
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    I didn't have any opinion on relative values. I was mentioning the fallout that usually always follows parabolic moves. I did mention the short sellers and the 'protection' mechanism.

    what is your point exactly?

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    Hi Agrarinvestor , after today probably 50 % of the Chinese stocks will be in suspense.... Very hard to get a gague of where the index is or what the real value of a company is when they are suspended ..... carnage , more to come . The Government can't really help, take a look at Japan didn't really work out them keeping the index up circa 1987 .... last 20 years been going backwards ......
    From reuters "Traders are increasingly nervous about the unusually large number of Chinese companies asking for their shares to be suspended from trading, fearing that many of them are looking for excuses to duck out of the turmoil.About a quarter of the roughly 2,800 companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen had filed for a trading halt by the close on Monday, and on Tuesday the Securities Times said another 200 announced a suspension."

  8. #8
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    Default My Point

    Quote Originally Posted by Xerof View Post
    I didn't have any opinion on relative values. I was mentioning the fallout that usually always follows parabolic moves. I did mention the short sellers and the 'protection' mechanism.

    what is your point exactly?
    My Point is that chinese Stocks are manipulated, by US based short sellers. Shanghai Composite has a great rrally during the past 12 month. A correction of 30% was healthy.
    But is it necessary that US listed chinese stocks are thrown in the same basket ?
    If you want to see what i mean with manipulation:
    http://regsho.finra.org/regsho-Index.html
    You can see daily short selling on US stocks, have a look at my favorites:GRO(Agria/PGW),CXDC, CGA

  9. #9
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    You need to worry when you read stories about the amount of betting going on - one was about a group of guys betting on stocks on the subway on the way to work with very short time frames. One punter boasted he made the equivalent of 100k in the 30 minute ride to work. All too easy these days, easier than the casino in some countries.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #10
    Advanced Member robbo24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    You need to worry when you read stories about the amount of betting going on - one was about a group of guys betting on stocks on the subway on the way to work with very short time frames. One punter boasted he made the equivalent of 100k in the 30 minute ride to work. All too easy these days, easier than the casino in some countries.
    69, do you ever find that the news stories always come too late?

    They get people excited about boom-time at the peak of the bubble?

    Equally, do you think they new people fearful at the time they should be greedy?

    In summary, will the SMA200 on the Shanghai Composite hold and offer a rally?

    Reminds me of the time the DJI was crashing in mid October 2014 and I was like "the SMA350, duh."
    'I often quote myself. It adds spice to my conversation.' - G B Shaw

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