GTK - Gentrack

[winner69]

... based on what assumptions?

Just curious ....

I can feel it in my bones .....decent gains coming up that is

[BlackPeter]

I can feel it in my bones .....decent gains coming up that is

Interesting ... are these earnings, revenue or share price gains?

[BlackPeter]

I can feel it in my bones .....decent gains coming up that is

Wondering whether some fund manager had the same feeling when (s)he decided to lift the SP prior to year end?

GTK X-Mas cln.JPG

But hey - Window dressing just part of our Christmas traditions, isn't it?

[BlackPeter]

Anybody remembering these good old times (April 2015) when all these exciting new NZ SW companies just left the starting blocks?

GTK stood now for some time in the "naughty corner", but if we look at the fundamentals, then they don't look that bad compared to some of the other currently emerging software companies. If we compare them e.g. with WYN, XRO, ERD, OHE then GTK is at this stage the only candidate not writing losses. As well - it even pays a dividend and can still show off a 2 digit CAGAR (11.2% over the last 6 years).

SP currently still at a discount to the IPO ($2.50) and in an uptrend. Tempting enough for me - I dipped the toes into the water and bought a small parcel.

So many beautiful and amazing candidates promising their holders to get rich ... and what happened?

Wynyard and OHE did bite the dust.

ERD and GTK just don't seem to be able to die (despite trying hard) but look rather pale;

and XRO - well, still driven by hype rather than earnings, but they clearly are playing in the big league.

Amazing what seven years can do to the market.

Actually - I got out of GTK with a nice gain (sold at something above $6 - and it was all down from there );

But anyway - just tidying up my watch lists. Anybody seeing a reason why I still should watch this mutt? Not even sure I can learn anything more from them ...

[iceman]

Anybody remembering these good old times (April 2015) when all these exciting new NZ SW companies just left the starting blocks?



So many beautiful and amazing candidates promising their holders to get rich ... and what happened?

Wynyard and OHE did bite the dust.

ERD and GTK just don't seem to be able to die (despite trying hard) but look rather pale;

and XRO - well, still driven by hype rather than earnings, but they clearly are playing in the big league.

Amazing what seven years can do to the market.

Actually - I got out of GTK with a nice gain (sold at something above $6 - and it was all down from there );

But anyway - just tidying up my watch lists. Anybody seeing a reason why I still should watch this mutt? Not even sure I can learn anything more from them ...

I have no idea as I haven't followed this share at all in the last few years. Looked up my records and saw I bought a few at $2.25 in December 2014. I remember never really understanding why I bought them, which I don't like, so sold them 3 months later for $2.35. Looking at the chart now I see I could have easily doubled my money by waiting a few years or waiting a couple of more years and halve it. Sure has been one hell of a ride for anyone holding all that time !!

[percy]

GTK's business is Utility Billing Software used by water,energy and airport companies.
Issues in UK energy sector together with airport Covid slowdowns caused GTK problems.
It was a good business model that was caught up with things outside of their control.
In the past year they have turned the previous year's loss into a profit.
The outlook statements in their annual report are positive.
Therefore a recovery is under way.Just how long it will take for a full recovery is the question.
So perhaps worth keeping on a watch list.

[BlackPeter]

GTK's business is Utility Billing Software used by water,energy and airport companies.
Issues in UK energy sector together with airport Covid slowdowns caused GTK problems.
It was a good business model that was caught up with things outside of their control.
In the past year they have turned the previous year's loss into a profit.
The outlook statements in their annual report are positive.
Therefore a recovery is under way.Just how long it will take for a full recovery is the question.
So perhaps worth keeping on a watch list.

You are right - their industry should be rather robust. They basically provide a specialised ERP and billing system for some of the most crisis resistant industries ... I guess, yes airports might have been a bit shaky but both water and power is something people always will need, be rain, hail or sunshine.

Given this situation and considering that some of the bigger (and more exposed) players in their industry had significantly less issues (or even made money thanks to Covid) am I sort of wondering why they did so bad.

I guess if we look at the real big players (covering all sorts of industries - neither XRO nor SAP nor Oracle or BAAN (to name just a few) took such a blow due to Covid and some of them did very well, thank you.

I suspect that GTK's issues sit deeper and are home made. Always a bit scared these days when one of our companies depends mainly on one (for them big) foreign market somewhere on the other side of the globe.

[percy]

Page 14 GTK's annual report.
The UK energy market has seen
unprecedented conditions in 2021.
Extremely high wholesale price pressures,
coupled with a regulatory Price Cap, has
forced B2C energy suppliers to sell energy
at a loss. This phenomenon has resulted
in suppliers going into administration. As
reported, ten of the suppliers are Gentrack
customers – either entering the Supplier of
Last Resort (SoLR) or Special Administration
Regime in the case of Bulb (a top five
customer of Gentrack by revenue.)

The annual report will answer most of your questions,ie airports.

[BlackPeter]

The UK energy market has seen
unprecedented conditions in 2021.
Extremely high wholesale price pressures,
coupled with a regulatory Price Cap, has
forced B2C energy suppliers to sell energy
at a loss. This phenomenon has resulted
in suppliers going into administration. As
reported, ten of the suppliers are Gentrack
customers – either entering the Supplier of
Last Resort (SoLR) or Special Administration
Regime in the case of Bulb (a top five
customer of Gentrack by revenue.)

Fair enough ... but apart from considering the UK as a basket case anyway ... why are GTK so reliant on the market conditions of a tiny and rebellious island somewhere in the foggy north west of Europe?

Wouldn't a great company offering real solutions not focus on more successful markets with customers who not only need their products but who can as well pay for them?

[percy]

Page 4 GTK annual report.
Gentrack’s 30 years of expertise and experience
has made us a clear leader in providing solutions
across a broad utility segment – with leading
customers in both B2C and B2B energy and water
across many regions.
This breadth of capabilities is unique and
provides for a wider addressable market than
many of our competitors cannot target.
We are excited about the opportunities
that lie ahead as we partner with leaders to
move the industry into the sustainable era

Note..Many regions

Page 12.
Despite global restrictions, we have won new
customers including Gatwick and 3 North
American customers. We’ve also signed
extended support contracts and upgrades for
our customers in both Europe and APAC. We’ve
also delivered major projects in Perth, Luton,
Cincinnati, New York, Sweden and Mexico.