Orion Health

[silverblizzard888]

Would you buy in now silverblizzard or top up your holding? I am just wondering if my experience of holding at a loss for so long is why I want to jump ship asap. It may actually be worth holding onto now. Hmmm better go and do me some research!

I'm pretty happy with the gain I've made so I will elect to sell 100% of my position, but thats because I have earnt a return that is above market averages and I'm prepared to find another opportunity that would give me a decent return. I will admit that Orion is probably a better business with this investment, but the uncertainty around it is a bit hard to calculate and for me I've learn in the past to make the most of my capital and not be too greedy, the longer I stay the bigger the risk in some cases of the current gains.

Quick calculation (due to limited info) forecast was for FY 19 revenue to be similar if not slightly higher by the company originally, though with extra investment I'd expected some extra business and bit more profits, though we are left with the higher portion of the loss making units.

Rhapsody: 24.9% owned, of the $60 million revenue, I estimated about $15 million in profit from the business. Of that $3.73 million will be Orions.

Due to lack of clarity in numbers since they merged the numbers in Population Health and Hospital business its unclear, though I will assume Population health is the business doing better that is why it was partly acquired.

Population Health: 75.1% owned, $70 million revenue (estimated), $5 million profits . $3.755 profits earning attibutributed .

Hospital: 100% ownership, $55 million (estimated), loss $5 million, loss attributed $5 million.

Overall a $2.485 million profit for FY19. I expect FY 20 to be a decent year for the company that will see Rhapsody earn $20 million, Population Health Earning $10 million and Hospital unit breaking even. When attributed to Orion will be worth about $4.98 million + 7.51 million = $12.49 million profit FY20

I'm not sure how many shareholders will elect to stay so hard to imagine the likely structure and shareholder count going forward. My valuation would imply $100 million dollar business left over for the present time and FY19 forecast ($100 million + $157 million = $257 million value today), if they can execute well for FY20 then we could well have a $200 -250 million business (357 - $407 million value based on FY 20 and the cash offered today) .

So for me there is still a upside, but I never like being in a situation of uncertainty. If the business does perform accordingly and I lack other opportunities then I would considering buying back in in the future, but until then I made decisions that I have certainty over. It is always harder when trying to make a rational decision when you have made a loss. Questions to ponder are do you have other better opportunities or if you still have belief in the business going forward.

*Please note thats are all estimates based on known information and estimates from my part and may lack good accuracy or error in calculation.
*Assumption is Hg brings expertise and scale-ability to the business that saves cost and improves margins

[RupertBear]

I'm pretty happy with the gain I've made so I will elect to sell 100% of my position, but thats because I have earnt a return that is above market averages and I'm prepared to find another opportunity that would give me a decent return. I will admit that Orion is probably a better business with this investment, but the uncertainty around it is a bit hard to calculate and for me I've learn in the past to make the most of my capital and not be too greedy, the longer I stay the bigger the risk in some cases of the current gains.

Quick calculation (due to limited info) forecast was for FY 19 revenue to be similar if not slightly higher by the company originally, though with extra investment I'd expected some extra business and bit more profits, though we are left with the higher portion of the loss making units.

Rhapsody: 24.9% owned, of the $60 million revenue, I estimated about $15 million in profit from the business. Of that $3.73 million will be Orions.

Due to lack of clarity in numbers since they merged the numbers in Population Health and Hospital business its unclear, though I will assume Population health is the business doing better that is why it was partly acquired.

Population Health: 75.1% owned, $70 million revenue (estimated), $5 million profits . $3.755 profits earning attibutributed .

Hospital: 100% ownership, $55 million (estimated), loss $5 million, loss attributed $5 million.

Overall a $2.485 million profit for FY19. I expect FY 20 to be a decent year for the company that will see Rhapsody earn $20 million, Population Health Earning $10 million and Hospital unit breaking even. When attributed to Orion will be worth about $4.98 million + 7.51 million = $12.49 million profit FY20

I'm not sure how many shareholders will elect to stay so hard to imagine the likely structure and shareholder count going forward. My valuation would imply $100 million dollar business left over for the present time and FY19 forecast ($100 million + $157 million = $257 million value today), if they can execute well for FY20 then we could well have a $200 -250 million business (357 - $407 million value based on FY 20 and the cash offered today) .

So for me there is still a upside, but I never like being in a situation of uncertainty. If the business does perform accordingly and I lack other opportunities then I would considering buying back in in the future, but until then I made decisions that I have certainty over. It is always harder when trying to make a rational decision when you have made a loss. Questions to ponder are do you have other better opportunities or if you still have belief in the business going forward.

*Please note thats are all estimates based on known information and estimates from my part and may lack good accuracy or error in calculation.
*Assumption is Hg brings expertise and scale-ability to the business that saves cost and improves margins

Thanks heaps for your thoughts silverblizzard, much appreciated. I will probably sell 100% of my holdings as well. They have yet to prove to me they will do what they say they will do and until they do there is too much uncertainty for me. My loss will still hurt but it will be smaller than it was and nothing like my dire experience with Wynyard which I was fearful of repeating so I am happy about that. I also think there are better places to park my money.

[RupertBear]

Craigs have recomended sell 100%

[whatsup]

Selling of after lunch, $1.10 and dropping, how can this be so weak if the buy back is .15 higher or is there too much uncertainty with the deal ?

[RupertBear]

Selling of after lunch, $1.10 and dropping, how can this be so week if the buy back is .15 higher or is there too much uncertainty with the deal ?

Been wondering the same thing myself.

[silverblizzard888]

Thanks heaps for your thoughts silverblizzard, much appreciated. I will probably sell 100% of my holdings as well. They have yet to prove to me they will do what they say they will do and until they do there is too much uncertainty for me. My loss will still hurt but it will be smaller than it was and nothing like my dire experience with Wynyard which I was fearful of repeating so I am happy about that. I also think there are better places to park my money.

Thats good its very mature thinking going on there and you will get better at it as time goes. Let this be experience you can learn on and it will help you in the future.

Selling of after lunch, $1.10 and dropping, how can this be so weak if the buy back is .15 higher or is there too much uncertainty with the deal ?

Just people selling to get the use of their capital, since it could be months before all of this officially gets settled many don't want to wait so they can get the extra gains. It's the marshmallow test all over again, people who get a marshmallow place infront of them can take it and eat it now or wait and get another for waiting. Most have like 4-5 marshmallows infront of them and if they wait they might get 1 more so its a question of wait or take and there is always going to be some people who will take it now.

[whatsup]

Thats good its very mature thinking going on there and you will get better at it as time goes. Let this be experience you can learn on and it will help you in the future.



Just people selling to get the use of their capital, since it could be months before all of this officially gets settled many don't want to wait so they can get the extra gains. It's the marshmallow test all over again, people who get a marshmallow place infront of them can take it and eat it now or wait and get another for waiting. Most have like 4-5 marshmallows infront of them and if they wait they might get 1 more so its a question of wait or take and there is always going to be some people who will take it now.

Back up to $1.15 now 4 trades later.

[silverblizzard888]

Back up to $1.15 now 4 trades later.

Should just swing back and forth until it gets closer to the announcement of settlement.

[moimoi]

Wonder if shareholders will capture any of the gains from the recent declines in the $NZ via improved pricing of "the offer" or will that only accrue to the aquirer..?

[whatsup]

$1.00 buy order now , has the market given up on this restructuring atm ?