Orion Health

[gbogo]

Buy at $4.20 area. Stopped there before. Next news comes out - will be back above $5 very quickly.

[BlackPeter]

Buy at $4.20 area. Stopped there before. Next news comes out - will be back above $5 very quickly.

Just whistling into the wind - or do you have some insider information you want to share with us?

I guess the trend is currently not your friend (if you hold), though they are still above the MA200.

If the next news is good, than yes, SP is likely go up, at least for some time (its a speculative share after all), but what if the news is bad?

Didn't follow them for some time, but just discovered that analyst consensus seems to be they might be cash flow positive in 2019. Do they have enough cash to trade through to profitability? If no, than at least one of these news might not be good for the SP.

[gbogo]

No special info though analysts still value at $5.00+. I trust the management track record of this company and expect them to deliver more contracts. I sold some above $4.80 and starting to nibble back in. Prefer to wait for indication of a base but this can move very fast once it starts so happy to improve my average.

[BlackPeter]

Buy at $4.20 area. Stopped there before. Next news comes out - will be back above $5 very quickly.

Hmm - this the news you were waiting for to bring the SP back to $5?
https://www.nzx.com/companies/OHE/announcements/288285

Must be embarrassing for the new director - announcement out and SP dropped a further 10 cents.

I am sure it is just coincidental ...

Discl: not holding and no intention to change this in the near future ...

[BlackPeter]

No special info though analysts still value at $5.00+. I trust the management track record of this company and expect them to deliver more contracts. I sold some above $4.80 and starting to nibble back in. Prefer to wait for indication of a base but this can move very fast once it starts so happy to improve my average.

Yeah, have seen that as well. Sadly, particularly in the case of speculative loss making companies like OHE there is typically very little correlation between analyst forecasts and share prices achieved. Just look at the analyst forecasts for e.g. WYN (SP 89% below forecast a year ago), IQE (SP 84% below forecast), ERD (SP more than 50% below forecast), or - during their respective hey days CRP or RAK - and check what the respective shares have been worth a year after the sometimes spectacular forecast?

Obviously - there are as well companies well exceeding analyst consensus (CVT is one of them - SP currently more than twice the analyst forecast a year ago, EBO and FPH as well well exceeded the analyst forecasts by roughly 55% each, GTK 40% above "consensus" forecast), but than, all the latter companies are neither speculative nor loss making. Maybe earnings do count after all?

[babymonster]

4.oo is a key level...

[Flintstone]

Now 3.95
Lets hear well timed good news, get holders happy before annual meeting 2 weeks.

[BlackPeter]

Buy at $4.20 area. Stopped there before. Next news comes out - will be back above $5 very quickly.

4.oo is a key level...

Just wondering - you guys still happy with your acquisitions?

Sorry, I don't want to pick on you, but this might be an excellent lesson for other investors in how difficult (or lets say impossible) it is to pick "bottoms" with any certainty. Sp currently testing the $3 - and I wouldn't dare to predict a bottom.

Obviously - there is as well the WYN example in investors mind ... and the election uncertainty is unlikely to help. A president Trump would not buy anything New Zealand made.

[Jaa]

and the election uncertainty is unlikely to help. A president Trump would not buy anything New Zealand made.

Well he buys Chinese steel... !

More importantly Trump plans to do away with Obamacare, decreasing health funding and shaking up the health system. The uncertainty alone would stall any contracts in the works for years.

[BlackPeter]

Interesting .... announcing the interim results date - and SP is dropping by another 4%. There must be some quite confident holders around.

On the other hand - President Trump became reality. He will disassemble Obamacare "before lunchtime" - and any private heath insurances with focus on their balance sheets won't need OHE products - it is much easier to rise the premiums and remove any clients with health problems.

Has OHE enough funds to get through the next 8 years (plus whatever it needs to reestablish a public health system)?