Orion Health

[BlackPeter]

OK since you are such a fan of Lee you should start a thread on his financial advice accomplishments. It would be more interesting than the travel log rubbish he fats up his weekly diatribes with.

Funny - sounds like you don't like his newsletter. Just wondering - why do you read it?

Its not up to me to advertise for Chris (there would be as well the forum rules), but is is certainly not up to you to badmouth him hiding behind a name de plume.

[Balance]

Funny - sounds like you don't like his newsletter. Just wondering - why do you read it?

Its not up to me to advertise for Chris (there would be as well the forum rules), but is is certainly not up to you to badmouth him hiding behind a name de plume.

Post 2008 :

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...-and-adversity

Chris Lee loaded up his clients' portfolio pre 2008 with finance companies' bonds - Hanover, Strategic Finance, South Canterbury Finance etc etc.

Pre 2008 :

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10459887

Investment analyst and broker Chris Lee also rates finance companies on his website, but says he likes to focus on those good companies, those people should invest in, rather than the bad.

"You've got the dual emotions - what is fair and what will cause queues outside the banks," says Lee.

"There are some companies that are unarguably good - Marac, Strategic, St Laurence, South Canterbury and UDC.

"They are not in the argument and it wouldn't be a bad thing for people to contrast those with Nathans, which was clearly a rubbish company and had been identified - certainly by anyone who does analysis - as a rubbish company a long time ago."

Lee says he correctly identified five of the past six failures as high-risk investments.

"It is possible for an experienced person to get hold of information that allows them to differentiate between the best and the worst.

"None of the As and Bs that we've got have had any trouble."

**** Post scrip ****


Chris Lee has of course deleted any reference to his disastrous and mickey mouse in-house finance company ratings system from everywhere - especially his website.

[mondograss]

The thing is, for OHE to be successful (in the manner they want to be) they need large, consistent, joined up datasets to work with. And those datasets simply don't exist for a variety of reasons including patient privacy and assorted govt regulations that forbid joining up such data.

NZ is fairly unique in having an NHI system with a single unique identifier that works across virtually the entire sector. But even that just holds demographic, next of kin data and some allergy and alert data. For virtually everywhere else, the datasets are fragmented practice by practice, hospital by hospital and that's always going to put a big fat handbrake on their ambitions.

So IMHO OHE is on a hiding to nothing and will fast become the next Rakon, where profitability is always just around the corner.

[RGR367]

As I still have a bit left on my speculative cash, I just joined the frenzy by getting some at $2.00 and putting a 2 yr horizon on my gut feel. As a new holder, I could really now have a feel on the discussion on this thread

[blobbles]

Back of the envelope - I would value OHE now (flat growth) at around 1.5x revenue or $156m... or around $1. That would be my target for buying in, once they reach break even. OHE SP should be punished more methinks...

I guess with this sort of company growth can be verrry lumpy. But next to zero growth in a single year is pretty pathetic from an investment perspective. At least buy something like HBL - double digit growth and likely to return 10c to shareholders next year. Beats no growth loss making companies any day of the week!

[moimoi]

Blobbles, the revenue figure given yesterday is for 6 months bro.

The shares are current trading at your fair value assessment ;-)

[blobbles]

Blobbles, the revenue figure given yesterday is for 6 months bro.

The shares are current trading at your fair value assessment ;-)

Ahhh right, see that's what you get when you only have half the envelope! Of course, 6 months, so fair value about now. Guess that's why RGR bought in...

Thanks for putting me right moimoi!

[Sideshow Bob]

These pups are <1% of my portfolio. At least they are today......started the week a little more than 1%.

[Snoopy]

I am a newbie investor who ignored the warning signs and held onto my Wynyard shares for too long hoping for the best and consequently lost it all along with many others. I am now VERY fearful OHE is going to be another Wynyard so I am very wary of holding and hoping given that didnt work so well last time I am thinking maybe it is time to get out now and suck up a loss before it gets even bigger Be grateful to hear what more experienced investors think of the current situation.

All of these recent NZ start up software companies have a model of building revenue before their investment capital runs out. Once the revenues and customers are in place the model is to turn down the investment tap (relative to revenue) so that the established revenues can turn into profits. A software platform, once established should be relatively cheap to run and service. So if OHE get the equation right, then big profits can follow.

Judging OHE as an investment requires you to assess how long the software will take to develop, and how quickly the revenues will build. So what we have here is a race to build the softwre product and its market before the investment capital runs out. If you believe that OHE can run their race thgen you should stay invested. If you think they will need to stop by the side of the track for a fuel top up (new capital), then you have to consider that new capital may be issued at a discount, and existing shares will be revalued downwards in tandem.

There is no connection between Wynyard and Orion, other than the fact that if new capital is going to be raised today there may not be as many takers in a broader market. Hence the discounting of any new capital might be higher than it otherwise would be. But WYN and OHE are different horses running on different courses. You have to evaluate any investment oppourtunity like this on its own merits.

SNOOPY

[whatsup]

All of these recent NZ start up software companies have a model of building revenue before their investment capital runs out. Once the revenues and customers are in place the model is to turn down the investment tap (relative to revenue) so that the established revenues can turn into profits. A software platform, once established is relatively cheap to run and service. So if OHE get the equation right, then big profits can follow.

Judging OHE as an investment requires you to assess how long the software will take to develop, and how quickly the revenues will build. So what we have here is a race to build the softwre product and its market before the investment capital runs out. If you believe that OHE can run their race thgen you shoudl stay invested. If you think they will need to stop by the side of the track for a fuel top up (new capital), then you have to consider that new capital may be issued at a discount, and existing shares will be revalued downwards in tandem.

Truck loads of cash to be spat out but when, fine art this one imho !