Orion Health

[kiora]

Great companies grow in a disciplined and well managed manner. For a company to have previously been this profitable in 2013 and growing at circa 30% and then slide towards a substantial loss with a materially slower growth something has gone wrong. There's a lot they're not saying by refusing to give forecasts. Maybe they have very little immediate prospects for new customers ?
Could it be as I suggested yesterday that all the easy low hanging fruit has already been picked ?
Why everyone keeps saying its a great company is a complete mystery to me. If it was so great they'd be building on the 2013 profit of $7.8m and still growing at 30%.

Love the fund managers comment who refused to be named who said, "personally if I don't get forecasts I don't invest", sums up a prudent person's thought processes in a lovely succinct way.

Unknowns = uncertainty yes
My view is they,re stepping on the gas this year to capture the market,just taken on 500? new staff to ramp this up.This would have a material affect on expenses of say $100,000/new employee ?($50,000,000)
This would affect bottom line initially until sales ramp up
In my view Ian McCrae has done a great job getting the co where its got to without markedly diluting his shareholding,taking on more debt,or continuing to go back to shareholders for capital raising
It has been farely cash flow neutral pretty well since its formation.That takes a great CEO to achieve that with this type of rapidly developing company
From what I,ve seen it also does not have any ? options to dilute shareholdings once it is listed

[Harvey Specter]

Why everyone keeps saying its a great company is a complete mystery to me. If it was so great they'd be building on the 2013 profit of $7.8m and still growing at 30% instead of now making massive losses and growing at a significantly slower pace...WTF ?

DIL is profitable, Revenue of $70m, Cash reserves, Growth of 70% and a market cap less than $400m.

I think I am out.

[GoldenStag]

It is a shame that Brian Gaynor is already in the mix. He is often one of the more vociferous and dissenting characters out there and I greatly respect him for it. However; this time he sits uncomfortably on the sell-side (sort of) and it is unlikely we'll get to hear him go both barrels at the IPO documentation like I think he would.

[kiora]

It is a shame that Brian Gaynor is already in the mix. He is often one of the more vociferous and dissenting characters out there and I greatly respect him for it. However; this time he sits uncomfortably on the sell-side (sort of) and it is unlikely we'll get to hear him go both barrels at the IPO documentation like I think he would.

Sell side?
You mean he has a vested interest as Milford Asset management have 2.4 % of Orion Health already ?

[Balance]

Sell side?
You mean he has a vested interest as Milford Asset management have 2.4 % of Orion Health already ?

Vested interest and conflicted etc etc.

[GoldenStag]

Sell side?
You mean he has a vested interest as Milford Asset management have 2.4 % of Orion Health already ?

Yes, I believe it would be imprudent of him to voice an opinion during the IPO. It effectively silences one of the biggest critics of IPO documentation and consequently means we are missing out on what would be a great article to read.

Caveat - I could be wrong...

[kiora]

I haven't seen anywhere that Milford are looking to exit ???

On the plus side for the float
1)Milford Asset Management have previously "voted" with there wallet.They supposedly liked something ?
2) This will be tightly held
3) NZX 50 inclusion ?
4)CEO has IMHO tightly managed cash flows to grow the business to where its got to.A remarkable achievement.
5)Fast growing Healthcare
6) Pricing at IPO relatively inexpensive to turnover compared to Xero
7)IPO will be at lower end of indicative range because of uncertainties regarding forward T/O & profitability ?

Disclaimer:Investor in Orion Health

[GoldenStag]

I haven't seen anywhere that Milford are looking to exit ???

On the plus side for the float
1)Milford Asset Management have previously "voted" with there wallet.They supposedly liked something ?
2) This will be tightly held
3) NZX 50 inclusion ?
4)CEO has IMHO tightly managed cash flows to grow the business to where its got to.A remarkable achievement.
5)Fast growing Healthcare
6) Pricing at IPO relatively inexpensive to turnover compared to Xero
7)IPO will be at lower end of indicative range because of uncertainties regarding forward T/O & profitability ?

Disclaimer:Investor in Orion Health

1) Milford bought at a $550m valuation price. I'd buy too at this price.
2) Yes. Low liquidity though.
3) NZX50 has liquidity calculations for inclusion. So, with McCrae holding so much, it may mean it can't get into the index. Anyone able to confirm?
4) Hmmm. I'm not sure of this one. He has brought on investors throughout the time and sold their building etc to keep everything going. This isn't really a cashflow magician.
5) Absolutely!
6) Comparison to XRO is only due to being a growth stock, nothing more IMHO. Lumpy sales into big organisations like hospitals and power companies smacks more like Gentrack to me.
7) I like your crystal ball. This isn't a plus side, this is an issue. No forecasts is just plain weird.

[Harvey Specter]

1)Milford Asset Management have previously "voted" with there wallet.They supposedly liked something ?

Disclaimer:Investor in Orion Health

Milford not looking to exit. I think they were just saying they had a vested interest in making it go well.

You say Milford voted with their wallet. At what price did they vote?

[Xerof]

No forecast means none of my money will head their way. I am not even going to bother reading their prospectus.

A single question though - are current shareholders required to escrow all or part for any period?

IMO, the most professional IPO seen in recent years was Synlait. The price left plenty on the table for the bright-eyed new shareholders, and existing holders were locked away for a declared portion of their holding. THAT IS CLASS