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  1. #2261
    Guru Rawz's Avatar
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    You can't go wrong with holding Metro. Strong brand in NZ. Aussie finally come right.
    As mentioned above once they get the debt down to their target (2.5x EBITDA was it??) and they start paying divvys the share price will run to 75-80 cents. Either that or FBU will come along and swallow them up.

    With the P/E around 5 currently very little downside and big big upside.

  2. #2262
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louloubell View Post
    I think the share price of Metro will continue to meander until debts are down more, start paying a divvies, Oz is more profitable, seeing the impact og the NZ competitor, and demonstrating the ability to make money in the good times.

    I'm patiently and impatiently waiting and holding. Played a dangerous game by averaging down, but it worked for me. I off loaded half at my break even point.

    I'm often surprised at the lack of info companies produce to keep investors up to date and Metro is no exception. Honest and regular communication builds trust.
    With all of these i think the share price would be increasing strongly. Remember there are a lot of companies on the nzx that are somewhat to very expensive at present. That will flow through to a higher tbat usual volume of funds looking for value/recovery stories.

  3. #2263
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    Still my biggest nzx holding. Property market holding up so they should be roughly making $1m per month cash in a steady boring way. Still on a P/E of 6.

    Next results update in May I guess as March is their year end....

    Should be a dividend announcement as the debt is reducing nicely.

  4. #2264
    Guru Rawz's Avatar
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    Next update in Feb for FY guidance

  5. #2265
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rawz View Post
    You can't go wrong with holding Metro. Strong brand in NZ. Aussie finally come right.
    As mentioned above once they get the debt down to their target (2.5x EBITDA was it??) and they start paying divvys the share price will run to 75-80 cents. Either that or FBU will come along and swallow them up.

    With the P/E around 5 currently very little downside and big big upside.
    I guess it depends on your time horizon. I just looked at their long term performance. If we take the earnings for the last 10 years, then this is a negative number, resulting in a PE of negative 4.4;

    If I take the earnings of last year plus the 3 analyst estimates in to the future, then the PE grows to negative 6;

    No matter how you twist it ... in the long run MPG always seems to have lost money. Sure, there are periods with small earnings, but then there is always another really big loss consuming all the small gains made before.

    2010 EPS -27 cents
    2011 EPS -109 cts
    2012 EPS 5 cts
    2013 EPS 5 cts
    2014 EPS 6 cts
    2015 EPS 8 cts
    2016 EPS 11 cts
    2018 EPS 9 cts
    2019 EPS 3 cts
    2020 EPS -42 cts
    2021 EPS (forecast) 6 cents
    2022 EPS (forecast) 5 cents
    2023 EPS (forecast) 4 cents

    Not sure why, but either cutting glass seems to be a loss making operation - or MPG had in the past a particularly inept board and management. Maybe its even both, who knows?

    But then ... next time will be different , won't it?
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 16-01-2021 at 12:07 PM.
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  6. #2266
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    I guess it depends on your time horizon. I just looked at their long term performance. If we take the earnings for the last 10 years, then this is a negative number, resulting in a PE of negative 4.4;

    If I take the earnings of last year plus the 3 analyst estimates in to the future, then the PE grows to negative 6;

    No matter how you twist it ... in the long run MPG always seems to have lost money. Sure, there are periods with small earnings, but then there is always another really big loss consuming all the small gains made before.

    2010 EPS -27 cents
    2011 EPS -109 cts
    2012 EPS 5 cts
    2013 EPS 5 cts
    2014 EPS 6 cts
    2015 EPS 8 cts
    2016 EPS 11 cts
    2018 EPS 9 cts
    2019 EPS 3 cts
    2020 EPS -42 cts
    2021 EPS (forecast) 6 cents
    2022 EPS (forecast) 5 cents
    2023 EPS (forecast) 4 cents

    Not sure why, but either cutting glass seems to be a loss making operation - or MPG had in the past a particularly inept board and management. Maybe its even both, who knows?

    But then ... next time will be different , won't it?
    But but but next time will be different

    Come on, it's a bit cheeky to put that big ugly -42 EPS in there when it relates to a $86.5m goodwill impairment. And rightly written off after the previous owners loaded it up prior to the listing.. replace it with 7.6 cts and its a much better picture.

    The NZ operation has actually consistently performed well and margins are okay, (Well they do a much better job than the likes of STU). Sales dropped slightly due to exiting the high-rise commercial segment.

    And finally (FINALLY) aussie is actually contributing to the business rather than being an anchor.

    I don't think metro is going to produce outstanding numbers i just think they will plod along and on current numbers we could well see a takeover. And if no takeover we are going to (soon) see some high 10% + divvy yield which will hopefully see a re rate so some capital gain as well.

    (I didnt know about the forecasts. Need to look into that )

  7. #2267
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    I guess it depends on your time horizon. I just looked at their long term performance. If we take the earnings for the last 10 years, then this is a negative number, resulting in a PE of negative 4.4;

    If I take the earnings of last year plus the 3 analyst estimates in to the future, then the PE grows to negative 6;

    No matter how you twist it ... in the long run MPG always seems to have lost money. Sure, there are periods with small earnings, but then there is always another really big loss consuming all the small gains made before.

    2010 EPS -27 cents
    2011 EPS -109 cts
    2012 EPS 5 cts
    2013 EPS 5 cts
    2014 EPS 6 cts
    2015 EPS 8 cts
    2016 EPS 11 cts
    2018 EPS 9 cts
    2019 EPS 3 cts
    2020 EPS -42 cts
    2021 EPS (forecast) 6 cents
    2022 EPS (forecast) 5 cents
    2023 EPS (forecast) 4 cents
    Not sure why, but either cutting glass seems to be a loss making operation - or MPG had in the past a inept board and management. Maybe its even both, who knows?

    But then ... next time will be different , won't it?
    Interesting.
    From page 80 of MPG's prospectus: "As Metroglass Holdings was incorporated on 8 November 2011, the historical summary includes the historical financial
    information from 1 February 2012. In respect of Metroglass Holdings the financial information presented from 1 April 2011 until 8 November 2011 includes unaudited trading information from NZ Glass Investments Limited."

    It would be interesting to know where these big EPS losses from 2010 and 2011 are sourced from. The prospectus notes "Note 2: no financial information exists for FY10 or FY11 as Metroglass Holdings was incorporated on 8 November 2011."

    Given the pre-reorganisation financials, MPG most likely had losses in 2010 and 2011, but are the reconstructed losses above on a similar number of shares on issue making them comparable? or are they big losses on a smaller number of shares on issue creating a large EPS loss? Are they trading losses, or asset write-down driven losses?

    Also, the 2017 year with EPS of 10.7c was also missed off.

  8. #2268
    Guru Rawz's Avatar
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    Good work Scrunch.

    So we have a company that has averaged 7.3c eps since 2012 (ignoring the one off 2020 goodwill write off). And this average includes the period of Aussie making a loss. Now that Aussie is positive EBITDA, where can the earnings go?

    Trades at 40 cents.
    P/E 5.5
    If EPS is 6c and they pay a divvy of 5c we have a 12.5% gross yield.

    Numbers are appealing right?

  9. #2269
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    At times the posts on forums like these simply reflect if the contributor is an optimist or a pessimist.

    To reveal my colours: I'm on optimist and holder of MPG.

  10. #2270
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scrunch View Post
    Interesting.
    From page 80 of MPG's prospectus: "As Metroglass Holdings was incorporated on 8 November 2011, the historical summary includes the historical financial
    information from 1 February 2012. In respect of Metroglass Holdings the financial information presented from 1 April 2011 until 8 November 2011 includes unaudited trading information from NZ Glass Investments Limited."

    It would be interesting to know where these big EPS losses from 2010 and 2011 are sourced from. The prospectus notes "Note 2: no financial information exists for FY10 or FY11 as Metroglass Holdings was incorporated on 8 November 2011."

    Given the pre-reorganisation financials, MPG most likely had losses in 2010 and 2011, but are the reconstructed losses above on a similar number of shares on issue making them comparable? or are they big losses on a smaller number of shares on issue creating a large EPS loss? Are they trading losses, or asset write-down driven losses?

    Also, the 2017 year with EPS of 10.7c was also missed off.
    Well spotted, though not necessarily constructive ;

    Anyway - The EPS for 2010 and 2011 are based according to the comments in my spreadsheet on "based on NZ Glass Holdings account divided by MPG's 2017 # of shares". My decision at some stage when setting up my spreadsheet, but I think this makes the numbers fair and comparable. Too lazy now to recheck the accounts (but feel free to do so if you wish). IFRS losses in my books are IFRS losses, no matter where they come from.

    Re 2017 EPS - correct - I forgot to copy / past the 2017 EPS line into the quoted post (my bad and all these things), but it appears in my spreadsheet - i.e. the PE numbers I used are correct (i.e. including the 2017 numbers). If you would have checked the numbers you would have noticed that. I am sort of disappointed ;
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 17-01-2021 at 09:56 AM.
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