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  1. #2301
    Guru Rawz's Avatar
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    Leemsip don't let that stop you posting! Honestly nobody truly knows what is going to happen in the future. Look at some of the sharetrader LEGENDS that were posting big things about OCA and werent quite right there.

  2. #2302
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leemsip View Post
    ...Felt a bit stink about my bullish posts too..... as it didnt pan out. Has put me off posting here in general actually.
    Nobody is right all the time*. Posters with 10,000's of posts to their name are no better at predicting the future than you,

    *Snow Leopards are the exception to that rule
    om mani peme hum

  3. #2303
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    When I was involved in glass industry glass people's standard reply was 'glass doesn't leak, not our fault'



    FAIL: New windows leaking under garden variety tests

    https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/p...-variety-tests
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #2304
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    So , we are only a couple of weeks away from the FY results. The price action has so far been exactly the same as prior to the past few announcements. Its nice to see that there is still some optimists out there !!

    I suspect that in the end , the market will be disappointed again. Its unlikely they will pay a dividend. I think they are trading ok / well , as you would expect in this building boom, but the debt mountain was huge. Add to that, the need to increase working capital due to shipping problems, and the need to resume some capex ( after being very tight for a few years ) , and the pace at which debt will come down is bound to slow. Remember too, MPG is paying income tax, because they have maintained trading profitability all through this period.

    If a dividend is not paid, then they really MUST announce the intention to resume dividends next year. It will only take a 2c div to provide a 5% yeild at the current price. I think a 2c div would allow the price to firm up to about 50c. Look what has happened to STU since they resumed div's .

    Having said that, their Balance Sheet remains so bad, that they still face several more years of debt reductions. Its only recently that market Capitalisation has exceeded debt. That is not a good place to be.

  5. #2305
    Guru Rawz's Avatar
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    I'm no longer a holder but I am thinking NPAT of $10m will be reported. This will be the 5th year in a row profits have declined. 2017 saw profits of $22m before significant items.

    Revenue I guess will be around the $250m mark which hasnt really changed since 2017. Ranges from $244m-$267m each year.

    MPG can't seem to grow and margins are dropping.

    May seem cheap but maybe in 5 years time profits will only be $5m? On revenue of $250m :/

    GLH's

  6. #2306
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    https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372544

    Bad result. Worse than I thought it would be. Market seems to like it though- up 1 cent.

    Underlying profit down 40%

    MPG say building consents high but yet they are selling glass at lower and lower margins.

    Trading at at 5.23 p/e and company says dividends coming at half year. 60% payout ration would give 7% gross yield.

  7. #2307
    percy
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    Rounded up figures.
    Total Assets $238mil
    Net Assets.$84 mil ...Equity Ratio 35.2%
    However deduct intangibles of $58mil leaves Net Assets of $26mil, an equity ratio of just 10.92%.

  8. #2308
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    Following is a quick look at MPG's recently released annual report. Below are snippets from post #2290 on the interim result back in November 2020:

    Quote Originally Posted by Ferg View Post
    HALF YEAR ended Sept 2020:

    NZ Commercial sales -21%...
    NZ Residential sales -21% is higher than just COVID losses...
    NZ Retrofit +2%, the YoY momentum on this would be circa +20%...
    Aust residential +2.5% ...

    NZ GP at 48.7% is down on prior half year of 52.9% ...
    Aust GP at 26.3% is up on prior half year of 21.5% ... but Aust sales are outnumbered by NZ sales by 3:1.

    Expenses fell by a lower % than the fall in sales %...

    No real reduction in interest costs ...MPG is unlikely to see any major benefit of reduced interest rates in the short term, although reduced debt levels will help somewhat.

    Cash looks healthy, debtor days are creeping up (could be a point in time issue), and inventory looks ok but there was talk of increasing safety stock which will see stock levels increase. Liquidity looks good, net debt vs equity is looking better...NTA is 12.4c per share... FCF is 9.7c per share ...[but]... cannot be maintained into 2H21 given the impending increase in stock and signalled resumption of capex.

    In summary a lot of the financial ratios and indicators are heading in the right direction. However, the two biggest issues to be resolved have the most financial impact, being the lack of growth in NZ residential sales and the lower margin on NZ sales. If these can be resolved, in conjunction with continued debt repayment, then IMO a resumption of dividends will be on the cards, if not late 2021 then 2022. ...
    FULL YEAR RESULT

    Some numbers have been restated for 2020 but I am comparing to what was originally reported last year.

    Revenues
    • NZ Commercial continues to decline as a strategic withdrawal -8% Year on Year (YoY)
      • there is no evidence of margin improvement and/or cost reductions given commercial was supposed to be low margin !?

    • NZ Residential is a bit of a shocker at -17% YoY (better than the -21% for H1, but that included April 2020 lockdown)
      • Where is the "buy local" support we are seeing elsewhere?

    • NZ Retrofit +16% YoY is a positive but this comes with increased costs (e.g. subbies & employees)
    • Total NZ -11% is disappointing in light of the continued investment in property I am observing elsewhere due to travel restrictions
    • Australia +1.2% is again disappointing given it is close to Oz annual inflation rate


    Margins
    • NZ Gross Profit at 48.0% of Revenues is lower than last year's 51.6%, likely impacted by higher inwards freight charges & competitive discounting
    • Australian GP of 23.7% has improved versus last year's 21.4%


    EBIT / NPBT
    • NZ EBIT declined from $27.8m to $19.4m, once again expenses fell at a slower rate of -4.8% YoY versus Revenue declines of -8.9%
      • Note: employee costs were down -0.8% or $0.7m YoY
      • Employee costs likely include the $2m management incentive which is masking the size of employee costs decreases; without the incentive the decline is closer to -2.8% which is still less than the % Revenue decline

    • Aust EBIT loss fell from ($3.6m) to ($0.7m) - heading in the right direction but a) not fast enough and b) it is a loss
    • NPBT is half what it was in 2019 and was a loss for the second half of the fiscal (Half year was $10.7m but full year is $5.4m)
      • NPBT of $5.4m was helped by $0.95m gain on sale of the fleet, the $1.4m release from the doubtful debt provision & the $1.07m reduction in advertising spend.


    Positives
    • Talk of a dividend*
    • Comprehensive profit is not a loss TGFSM
    • Continued debt reduction
    • NTA is into double digits at about 12.5c/share, but this has barely moved from the half year result
    • Various Balance Sheet ratios are on track


    Things for Simon to do from last year
    • Arrest the decline in NZ sales
    • Improve NZ margins
    • Strategic plan for NZ sales


    Things for Simon to do this year
    • Arrest the decline in NZ sales
    • Improve NZ margins
    • Strategic plan for NZ sales
    • Reinstate advertising spend, and for God's sake can someone introduce MPG to Google Adwords?
    • Reduce staff costs in line with top line Revenues
    • Not make a loss


    *My concern continues to be revenues and margins are both heading in the wrong direction, and by the time the bankers have had their debts repaid, there won't be any profits for dividends.
    Last edited by Ferg; 21-05-2021 at 11:27 PM. Reason: typo

  9. #2309
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    A good analysis there Ferg

    Big Ca$h going to Loan reductions in low interest times V trying to further sure up SP with even
    signal of an earlier Div concerns, as does hefty Intangibles on Balance sheet & material
    trading figures heading south ..

    Weren't these guys going to creaming it out of all the building activity ? What went wrong ?
    or is that still mostly well out on the future orders list ..

  10. #2310
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    Quote Originally Posted by nztx View Post
    A good analysis there Ferg

    Big Ca$h going to Loan reductions in low interest times V trying to further sure up SP with even
    signal of an earlier Div concerns, as does hefty Intangibles on Balance sheet & material
    trading figures heading south ..

    Weren't these guys going to creaming it out of all the building activity ? What went wrong ?
    or is that still mostly well out on the future orders list
    ..
    A good question and I agree - what is wrong? Forward orders have gone from $1.3m to $2.1m - heading in the right direction but 'tis a drop in the bucket.

    As I peruse the Annual Report I am struck by the photo on page 18. How do you have an executive team of 10 in an organisation of this size? To me an Exec team is the CEO, COO, CFO, Head of Sales & Marketing and maybe a Legal/Product guru (i.e. the person who has been there 60 years). I think there could be some structural issues. CEO = decision maker, COO = Internal focus, HoS&M = External focus and CFO is the glue holding everything together. Legal/Product guy would be the voice of reason to prevent group think.

    A GM of an island, or half of an island should not be on the exec team and do they need a CIO, HR, Strategy & H&S on the exec team? No offence intended to the individuals concerned if you are reading this. The Exec team is not a committee and you do not want decision by consensus; that's when you get the least worst decision and/or product etc. and you end up with vanilla every time. As evidenced by the lacklustre results perhaps?

    They need to rethink their organisation set-up, number of Board members (is 6 necessary?) and take an axe to staff costs that are not product or sales focussed. Maybe Simon is trying to show a flat organisation structure and good on him, but that's not an exec team. Too many "Directors" on the Board and the exec team. I think this is where the problems start. And why am I not seeing Google Ads for MPG when I search for glass? That is a serious fail.
    Last edited by Ferg; 23-05-2021 at 04:06 PM.

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