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  1. #2271
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    You are exactly right, IFRS losses are IFRS losses. Me? I care 10x more about cash.

  2. #2272
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    In 2006 Metro was making more than now and a very successful private company. Private equity bought it for about $360m .....well done the 3 owners

    Of course private equity outfits (2 of them in the end) ran it into the ground but got something back when they seduced NZ insto’s and public to front up with $240m (IPO) .....and leaving a lot of debt in the company.

    What’s Metro worth now?

    That’s what the ‘big end of town’ can do to a great business
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #2273
    Guru Rawz's Avatar
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    Worth $74m now. Ouch.
    I feel like that listing where nobody made money is why Metro gets so beaten up now. Left a bad taste in a lot of peoples mouths.

    This article has been linked before:

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...7EIYIO6CB54TA/

    You can almost feel Brian Gaynor's hands around the ex chairmans neck as he rings it. lol.

    Ah well. Onwards and upwards I say

  4. #2274
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Well spotted, though not necessarily constructive ;

    Anyway - The EPS for 2010 and 2011 are based according to the comments in my spreadsheet on "based on NZ Glass Holdings account divided by MPG's 2017 # of shares". My decision at some stage when setting up my spreadsheet, but I think this makes the numbers fair and comparable. Too lazy now to recheck the accounts (but feel free to do so if you wish). IFRS losses in my books are IFRS losses, no matter where they come from.
    While its very historical now, NZ Glass holdings results are available via the companies office. The Mar 2011/Mar 2010 result are below:
    $m...........................Mar-2011.....Mar-2010
    Sales revenue...........136.8..........137.3
    Operating Exp...........-119.9.........-116.5
    Other (gains)/losses...-0.9............3.0
    Finance income..........0.3.............0.5
    Amort. intangibles......-2.7............-2.6
    Surplus.....................13.6...........21.7
    EBITA EPS (185m sh)...7.3c............11.7c

    Finance costs.............-33.3..........-40.1
    Impair Goodwill..........-179.1........-30.8
    Taxation....................-2.0............1.3
    Rounding...................-0.1............-0.1
    Net Loss....................-200.9........-48.0
    EPS (185m shares).....-109c..........-26c

    Bank debt (less cash)..280.9.........262.6

    What can we learn from this old information from a recessionary period?
    The old NZ Glass was still able to make 10%+ operating margins before finance costs, impairments and taxation in these two years with huge losses. There was however an incredible level of debt loaded into the old variant of MPG making it unprofitable, with impairment of goodwill making the situation worse.

    Poor periods can cause significant goodwill write-off's (so recent write-off's shouldn't have been a surprise).

    Something in the original NZ Glass structure looked sufficiently appealing that banks were prepared to lend >$250m. This should help keep facilities large enough to provide a good liquidity buffer, but the current approach of getting debt down is a sensible one.

    Despite looking very very odd, BlackPeter's, EPS for those periods are reflective of the earlier losses.
    Last edited by Scrunch; 17-01-2021 at 09:49 PM.

  5. #2275
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    MPG on a surge this week. Boomed up to 46c. Must be front running the stellar results they will report in Feb and the divvy announcement.

    Cant remember who said it on the forum but this is prob worth 60c + hype. Currently negative 14c of hype but rapidly closing the gap.

    Cant sleep waiting for the Feb report!

  6. #2276
    Guru Rawz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leemsip View Post
    MPG on a surge this week. Boomed up to 46c. Must be front running the stellar results they will report in Feb and the divvy announcement.

    Cant remember who said it on the forum but this is prob worth 60c + hype. Currently negative 14c of hype but rapidly closing the gap.

    Cant sleep waiting for the Feb report!
    Yes it has had a nice run of late, moving (late) with STU and FBU. I tried to by more at $0.385 a couple of weeks ago when it had some weakness. Got too greedy as there were shares available at $0.39.. should have just followed my gut and loaded up. Oh well i am already seriously over weight in these shares so cant complain too much.

    If Feb report comes in strong there is a 1 bagger on the table even at current levels imo.

  7. #2277
    Guru Rawz's Avatar
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    Hmmm wonder if MPG will give us a surprise dividend like FBU just did.

    A nice 2.5c half year dividend and outlook for similar later in the year really would send the share price rocketing. Likely over $0.50

  8. #2278
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    I think they will continue to reduce debt and mention the likelihood of a dividend later this year.... with heaps of caveats.

    I'm most interested in how the Oz part of the business is going.

  9. #2279
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    Also keen to hear about Oz. If they can scum a million from that side of the ditch then it will be a real lift to the company. First half was $0.4m EBIT.

    They said they will pay out dividends once net Debt to EBITDA was 1.5X (this is from memory, cant find it anywhere in the preso's). November half year update this ratio was 1.53, so should be in dividend country by now.

    Agree with RAWZ that 2-2.5c now (cost around $4-5m) and signal more to come subject to trading conditions would be about right. This company generates a reliable $12m+ per year so very do-able and still leave room for maintenance capex and debt reduction.

  10. #2280
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    That $12m cash generation I mentioned above is from my (very simple) model of the company and assumes $9m capex per year. I expect the cashflow to be much higher than this in reality.

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