MPG - Metro Glass

[bottomfeeder]

The funds seem to be supporting this company. For every seller there is a buyer.

[Beagle]

Its not really a company I follow BP but I note even with the 17% decline in SP today that puts it on a PE of 14 based on last years earnings and investors need to consider if this year's earnings will be lower, (it appears they will be slightly).

On the other hand FBU is on a historic PE of 15 and investors need to weigh up the relative outlook's of each company. Based on a quick and dirty comparison I'd say this mornings fall, (so far), appears fully warranted and quite possibly investors pain isn't finished yet by any means.

They call themselves a growth business in the NZX announcement... Hmmm...growth or cyclical ?, you folks be the judge.

I'll be blunter Roger - I think MPG is a very average business that is still overpriced and if you think avbout its across the cycle earnings is worth maybe $1.10-$1.30 a share. Not something I'd invest in because in great times for them they are not performing well enough - clearly a cyclical even if they are acquisitive and on that basis for me a PE of 10-12 is warranted at best. On 12x last years earnings they are c. $1.33 max.

Posted on 3 February 2017 when SP was $1.50. Somewhat ironic that since then the FBU fiasco has unfolded.
I think what's clear now is that both these companies are pure cyclical's and neither warrants a PE of more than an average of 10 across the business cycle.
Seeing as we're at the peak of the building cycle now, in my opinion a very strong case can be made for using a PE lower than 10 based on last years earnings at the cycle peak. On that basis both MPG and FBU have the potential for significant further falls.

Something of a brave call after this has fallen so far but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see $1.00 in the foreseeable future. Likewise I remain convinced that FBU's previous tendering process was systemically flawed and a significant number of their contracts won but yet to be commenced will involve work at materially compromised commercial profit margins, potentially further losses to come in future periods.
Why anyone would buy them above 10 times last years earnings, (circa $6.60) is completely lost on me especially seeing as like MPG, they're the building company that was always supposed to be on the improve. To early for a couple of Tui's ?

[winner69]

Hard to believe that it wasn't that long ago I bailed at over $2. A low of $1.30 was good buying eh

Market sure is a funny thing - as Mr P used to say 'the market giveth but the market also taketh away' - good judgement meant I avoided the taketh away bit this time around.

Still watching though - fundamentally a good business (and an interesting one)

[Beagle]

Hard to believe that it wasn't that long ago I bailed at over $2. A low of $1.30 was good buying eh

Market sure is a funny thing - as Mr P used to say 'the market giveth but the market also taketh away' - good judgement meant I avoided the taketh away bit this time around.

Still watching though - fundamentally a good business (and an interesting one)

Well played mate Wait for $1 and back in ? Please let me know when you decide to get back in, happy to back you're judgement on this one as you're the one with the runs on the board and you obviously know the company better than I do.

[sb9]

Hard to believe that it wasn't that long ago I bailed at over $2. A low of $1.30 was good buying eh

Market sure is a funny thing - as Mr P used to say 'the market giveth but the market also taketh away' - good judgement meant I avoided the taketh away bit this time around.

Still watching though - fundamentally a good business (and an interesting one)

As someone said on this thread where you the price be if they don't have big funds support??

[sb9]

Just noticed the turnover for the day...wow more than 13Ml shares traded so far!!!

[Beagle]

Just noticed the turnover for the day...wow more than 13Ml shares traded so far!!!

Winner must be starting to quietly accumulate then

[BlackPeter]

Obviously - the 130 was expected to be a quite important support line ... but not sure I expected that volume ...

More than 14 million shares changed hands (that's close to 8% of all issued shares) and the 130 did hold.

I know, it is currently fashionable to talk them down, but I still see (certainly at this price) opportunities.

Despite the downgrade early February - revenue is rising this year by 30% ... and given that they invested this financial year heavily into new technology (which screwed up their manufacturing process prior to Christmas) ... would I assume that the coming financial year (with all the new toys working) will be better.

Analyst consensus: $1.77; forward PE: 10.6 and forward CAGR above 25% - and all this for $1.30 per share?


Discl: couldn't resist ...

[winner69]

Obviously - the 130 was expected to be a quite important support line ... but not sure I expected that volume ...

More than 14 million shares changed hands (that's close to 8% of all issued shares) and the 130 did hold.

I know, it is currently fashionable to talk them down, but I still see (certainly at this price) opportunities.

Despite the downgrade early February - revenue is rising this year by 30% ... and given that they invested this financial year heavily into new technology (which screwed up their manufacturing process prior to Christmas) ... would I assume that the coming financial year (with all the new toys working) will be better.

Analyst consensus: $1.77; forward PE: 10.6 and forward CAGR above 25% - and all this for $1.30 per share?


Discl: couldn't resist ...

I think you will be do very well buying at this level ...even if it drops a bit more next week over $2 sometime later in the year is still a great return.

Strong building consents numbers out today - nearly 30,000 dwelling units a year need windows. And the retro double glazing going well. Plenty of work for next couple of years before the recession strikes.

Only short term worry would be NZD

[Beagle]

After applying vast amounts of flea powder one must stand back and allow time for it to work. Watching the charts for hard evidence this downturn is over before considering backing this pup.