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  1. #1461
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    The market has an extremely long memory, your loss will not be forgotten nor will the losses of many other 'dreamcatchers'. MPG is unfortunately tarred inexorably from its shonky IPO and may never recover from it, or even it does recover some day it will be broadcast here sufficiently early enough for one to action it.

    Take it on the chin, a lesson learnt. Listen to the advice of those who are truely experienced (I don't include myself in that definition) and graciously offer their wise counsel here and stick to proven earners with solid fundamentals and great growth prospects with SP's that aren't being beaten to a pulp by negative sentiment.

    There are only a handful of companies on NZX that are left in this topped out market that fit the definition and the guru's posting here are all over them like a rash. MPG isn't one of them.

    Everything else is very speculative, especially NZX IPO's that are not government-backed.
    Good post.. I hope Rupert is taking note..

  2. #1462
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    Quote Originally Posted by janner View Post
    Good post.. I hope Rupert is taking note..
    Yes janner I am here, listening and learning. Thanks for your comments and yes good post thanks Baa Baa

  3. #1463
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    The market has an extremely long memory, your loss will not be forgotten nor will the losses of many other 'dreamcatchers'. MPG is unfortunately tarred inexorably from its shonky IPO and may never recover from it, or even it does recover some day it will be broadcast here sufficiently early enough for one to action it.
    Negative sentiment might have been compounded by mental proximity with other spectacular fall in the building sector (FBU)...

  4. #1464
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    The market has an extremely long memory, your loss will not be forgotten nor will the losses of many other 'dreamcatchers'. MPG is unfortunately tarred inexorably from its shonky IPO and may never recover from it, or even it does recover some day it will be broadcast here sufficiently early enough for one to action it.
    Actually the market has a very short memory - so short that shysters are able to plunder at will every so many years or so.

    Examples - Feltex by Forsyth Barr ($280m gone) and what did we have in recent years? CBL - nice big one this time round ($1 billion) and before that, Credit Sails ($90m), South Canterbury Finance etc etc.

    Then there's the backdoor listings - Snakk, Plxxure, Seadragon etc etc when Plus SMS should have etched into stone that investors must steer clear of backdoor jobs.

    Go to the Snakk thread and you can see how short the market memory is. Some of us who warned against Snakk were subject to odium and abuse.
    Last edited by Balance; 15-05-2018 at 08:59 AM.

  5. #1465
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    NBR reported yesterday that there is now distrust firmly embedded in investors psyche towards private equity floats.
    Its been quite SUM time since investors did really well out of a private equity float. The Dick Smith fiasco as you probably know has been described as the greatest private equity heist of all time but we have some notable ones here as you've mentioned above.

    Even after really dismal recent listings like TGH, MPG and EVO, (which all promised growth and delivered anything but that) I suspect there's another bunch of gullible investors out there ready to be influenced by pretty pictures and promises of growth.

    PE forecasts should be treated with deep skepticism especially as they're the ones that stand to make material gain from painting a really rosy picture of future prospects. You would think that investors would have worked that out by now ?

    This MPG an especially shameful fiasco. Massive goodwill on the books predicated upon ongoing sustained growth and they needed outside consultants to tell them what "blind Freddy" already knew, that this is a cyclical industry

    This company is a rudderless ship on a journey to nowhere. The Directors should be deeply ashamed of themselves making such promises of growth when its clear it was all smoke and mirrors.
    Last edited by Beagle; 15-05-2018 at 09:14 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #1466
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post

    Even after really dismal recent listings like TGH, MPG and EVO, (which all promised growth and delivered anything but that) I suspect there's another bunch of gullible investors out there ready to be influenced by pretty pictures and promises of growth.

    PE forecasts should be treated with deep skepticism especially as they're the ones that stand to make material gain from painting a really rosy picture of future prospects. You would think that investors would have worked that out by now ?
    For every dismal PE IPO, there is actually one which has delivered - remember Freightways, Z Energy, Trade Me, NZ King Salmon, Gentrack, Summerset to name but a few.

    All a question of being careful to choose and participate in the right ones.

  7. #1467
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    For every dismal PE IPO, there is actually one which has delivered - remember Freightways, Z Energy, Trade Me, NZ King Salmon, Gentrack, Summerset to name but a few.

    All a question of being careful to choose and participate in the right ones.
    Perhaps its just my perception but lately it seems the B.S. promises of growth has been layered on a bit thicker...
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #1468
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Perhaps its just my perception but lately it seems the B.S. promises of growth has been layered on a bit thicker...
    Late cycle IPOs - pays to be very very wary of them.

  9. #1469
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Perhaps its just my perception but lately it seems the B.S. promises of growth has been layered on a bit thicker...
    Back in the day you could trust em, Pushpay and eroad, 2014 vintages, PVL and CLI... oh dear

  10. #1470
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    No surprises in full year, just as they said ....well done

    Strategic review — current strategy still relevant so strategy unchanged. Just need to execute better

    Outlook — EBIT probably a bit more in F19 but not making any outrageous promises. Market won’t grow and capacity still a problem

    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...385/279725.pdf
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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