MPG - Metro Glass

[steveb]

I think we can agree from a governance perspective this has been very poorly handled. This gives investors a clear window of insight into whether the board is up to the task of crystal clear transparency or not.

Yes and it will be interesting to see if the board are buying today,actually it will be VERY interesting

[Balance]

Unfortunately, the most profitable part of MPG's operations has now got competition.

From Ministry of Housing : "Our aluminium windows are the most expensive in the world. The industry pretends there are five operators. But there is only one in the important part of the value chain supplying the aluminium extrusion. "

Such are the ways of the world - any player enjoying exceptional margins will attract competition and in this instance, MPG has.

Stand aside until such time as the impact on MPG's margins become clear.

Meanwhile, could be good news for home builders and buyers?

[BlackPeter]

Thanks for rules...I don't have the energy to run with the ball. Early sellers might be hoping this closes at around 72 cents, the opening price, so this ends up being a storm in a tea cup (dog bowl ?). I don't like their chances.
Whilst I concede this could have been well informed Forbar clients jumping ship someone needs to run the ruler over this mornings apparent fiasco as it doesn't look right.

I think we agree that it could have been handled better, but at this stage I don't see it as a hanging offence. Given that I neither sold nor bought prior to the announcement - am I as well not impacted ... so leave it to whoever might feel aggrieved.

Anybody looked at the chart? Big and beautiful gap ... and SP ways out of Bollinger bands (likely to bounce back?). Not a trader, but this could be a temptation for some. Might need to ask Moosie what he thinks ...

[trader_jackson]

I thought things were going to bounce or something?
No worries - will bounce bigly sooner or later when the takeover offer at 80c comes.

[Beagle]

I think we agree that it could have been handled better, but at this stage I don't see it as a hanging offence. Given that I neither sold nor bought prior to the announcement - am I as well not impacted ... so leave it to whoever might feel aggrieved.

Anybody looked at the chart? Big and beautiful gap ... and SP ways out of Bollinger bands (likely to bounce back?). Not a trader, but this could be a temptation for some. Might need to ask Moosie what he thinks ...

Yes definitely. Really gutted I have no funds in my ANZ securities account today as I've missed the "opportunity of a lifetime" and with such world class governance how could anyone possibly lose

[bull....]

lowering my target down from previous 90c down to 48c on industry headwinds

[winner69]

At least Forbar only went as far as UNDERPERFORM which I say is better than SELL

now share price down heaps maybe another note saying OUTPERFORM will come out tomorrow

They must have been between the lines of recent CSR announcements

[BlackPeter]

lowering my target down from previous 90c down to 48c on industry headwinds

That's interesting.
So you are saying the total worth of this company is only $90m (48cents * 185m shares);
Just a guts feeling - or based on what assumptions would you come up with this number?

[BlackPeter]

Just having another look at the announcement ...

We have had it confirmed to us that a large aluminium extruder is looking to
enter the New Zealand glass processing market, with a new processing plant
near Hamilton. This greenfield development is expected to begin early
production in circa 18 months, and by way of comparison once fully up and
running may be of a broadly similar scale to Metroglass' Highbrook plant.

...

Metroglass has seven processing plants in the group, is the leading glass
processor in New Zealand, and is confident in its ability to compete strongly
in its markets, including 'non-windows' glass where we see further
opportunities for growth.

Our customers are at the centre of our strategy, and over the six months to
September, we achieved the highest 'delivery-in-full-on-time' performance in
over two years.

OK - so this newcomer intends to build a plant sized like Highbrook. Admittedly one of the larger MPG plants, but still only one out of seven.

The newcomer might find that not all building projects and factories are delivered on time and under budget - and they will need to go through a start up phase much more intense that MPG had to do with its updated plants. Remember - the competitor starts with a greenfield and no trained staff in New Zealand.

But yes - I agree: buying MPG might be the cheapest option for them if bulls price dreams come true ... in this case they would get seven modern and operational factories close to their established customer base for probably twice the price they might need to pay for their one new greenfield development in Hamilton without customers and far away from most of their potential customers.

Just remember - there are two things which matter for glass: short supply lines (transport is expensive) and fast delivery.

[winner69]

Just having another look at the announcement ...



OK - so this newcomer intends to build a plant sized like Highbrook. Admittedly one of the larger MPG plants, but still only one out of seven.

The newcomer might find that not all building projects and factories are delivered on time and under budget - and they will need to go through a start up phase much more intense that MPG had to do with its updated plants. Remember - the competitor starts with a greenfield and no trained staff in New Zealand.

But yes - I agree: buying MPG might be the cheapest option for them if bulls price dreams come true ... in this case they would get seven modern and operational factories close to their established customer base for probably twice the price they might need to pay for their one new greenfield development in Hamilton without customers and far away from most of their potential customers.

Just remember - there are two things which matter for glass: short supply lines (transport is expensive) and fast delivery.

Looking more of a SCREAMING BUY as each hour (or post) goes by

Half year announcement not that important now. I gather they were going say something about this new competive landscape in a more measured way at that announcements which might not have led to this ‘panic’ selling