MPG - Metro Glass

[Maverick]

I have been caught holding this stinker thinking their results would be better than they were and would be enough to hold the SP up long enough for me to get rid of them, albeit for a loss. Now my loss has doubled and yes WTF to do?! I also lost lots with Wynyard so I am thinking of selling and sucking up my loss....just haven't been able to push the sell button

Rupert, the pain you are feeling is what will make you a decent investor in the future. I've lost big time in the past and its those losses that I've done all of my learning from. It ain't any fun but it's necessary (otherwise arrogance creeps in which certainly will cause big losses ahead), could be worse , you could have a rental house, try getting out of that by pushing a button when it goes tits up.

[hardt]

Bought back in 2 seconds ago at 37c

Let's see how this crapshot plays out.

[winner69]

.....”today is only a moment in time”

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a...-surprisedhtml

"We think they are a very capable company, certainly in aluminium and in the windows, but glass is a difficult game," he said. "It won't be easy for them to develop the IP and get it up and running

[Beagle]

They are expecting a better result in 2H regarding Australia so that suggests they are expecting a much weaker 2H performance in N.Z. if they are only forecasting 13.5m EBIT for 2H. Honestly I wonder if the CFO can see the wood for the trees ? No dividends for years, MPG is a yield stock, 2H forecast is significantly weaker than a weak 1H and he is surprised at the extent of the SP drop...WTF ? Should have gone to spec savers..he obviously can't see past the end of his nose. What a complete muppet !

[Leftfield]

Bought back in 2 seconds ago at 37c. Let's see how this crapshot plays out.

Good luck with that!

[Scrunch]

Bought back in 2 seconds ago at 37c

Let's see how this crapshot plays out.

Not as silly as it sounds. Market cap of only $70m. It just needs Mr market regaining some confidence profits and margins can be sustained. If EBIT remains anything close to $30m the market cap isn't going to stay at $70m.

[Arbroath]

They are expecting a better result in 2H regarding Australia so that suggests they are expecting a much weaker 2H performance in N.Z. if they are only forecasting 13.5m EBIT for 2H. Honestly I wonder if the CFO can see the wood for the trees ? No dividends for years, MPG is a yield stock, 2H forecast is significantly weaker than a weak 1H and he is surprised at the extent of the SP drop...WTF ? Should have gone to spec savers..he obviously can't see past the end of his nose. What a complete muppet !

I listened to the analyst call this morning and I think the better Australian second half is going to be no better than maybe breakeven in Oz rather than a loss as in the first half so the $12.5m ebit forecast for the second half is likely all NZ or very close to it. Last years second half ebit was $12.1m, affected by capex implementation issues, and the year before $13.7m so its hardly a disaster although clearly the growth that was promised the last few years just has not happened.

FY19 ebit of $28m (assuming they can deliver it!) compares to FY18 of $30.9m and FY17 of $32.9m - not a good trend but the deterioration looks to be entirely in Australia so stopping that asap should be a priority. The only real cock-up Metro has made was buying AGG at the wrong time which is a big management distraction for little gain - if they could sell it for half what they paid that would be a bonus - get c. $25m if they could to pay down debt and focus on NZ and start paying dividends again in 2020-21.

Npat should be c. $16m for FY19 which is still 8.6cps or a PE today of 4.3x.

[James108]

The full eps needs to be applied to debt reduction though. In that context any valuation multiple needs to take into account the debt. EBIT to enterprise value of 165/28 = 6 may be an appropriate measure. That ratio seems very appealing if there wasn't a new entrant about to stake a claim to half of metros market share.

That said there may be an opportunity here.

[whatsup]

Bought back in 2 seconds ago at 37c

Let's see how this crapshot plays out.

Well done hardt, looks like you picked the bottom, hitting on .40 again now.

[RupertBear]

Bought back in 2 seconds ago at 37c

Let's see how this crapshot plays out.

After unsuccesfully trying to push the sell button on my holdings 3 times (I was interupted twice and I chickened out the third time) I decided it wasnt meant to be so I bought a few more at $0.38 instead ...time will tell if averaging down was was a big mistake...