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  1. #1781
    Antiquated & irrational t.rexjr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by etrader View Post
    Takeover offer coming up by the look of it, 60c would be cheap given it’s currently trading at a PE of 4 five or take.
    New large competitor building in the Waikato not sure who but acknowledged by MPG
    any calls on a T/O between 60c - 80c
    Or just buy Veridian

  2. #1782
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by etrader View Post
    Takeover offer coming up by the look of it, 60c would be cheap given it’s currently trading at a PE of 4 five or take.
    New large competitor building in the Waikato not sure who but acknowledged by MPG
    any calls on a T/O between 60c - 80c
    FBU a logical buyer at this kind of prices.

    FBU will be able to strip out at least $10m - $15m of corporate and regional overheads & real synergies by integrating MPG with its building materials supply network.

    A no brainer but these days, FBU is seen as lacking in any kind of brains?
    Last edited by Balance; 27-11-2018 at 10:45 PM.

  3. #1783
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arbroath View Post
    Nearly 10% of the company just changed hands at 40c - I can smell a takeover offer coming.

    No way the Board could fight off a bid given recent events and the right buyer this is still worth maybe $1 a share.
    Strategically, it would make sense for a FBU to build up an initial blocking stake at current prices to avoid a STU situation of someone else blocking a bid.

    $1? Don't think so - enough uncertainty and pissed off shareholders for 60c to be successful.

  4. #1784
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Strategically, it would make sense for a FBU to build up an initial blocking stake at current prices to avoid a STU situation of someone else blocking a bid.

    $1? Don't think so - enough uncertainty and pissed off shareholders for 60c to be successful.
    Im not saying anyone will pay $1, just that it might be worth around that for the right buyer. An acquirer will only pay what they think they need to and personally I'd say 70-75c would do the trick at this stage leaving probably 30% or so of value upside for the acquirer. Could be more for FBU who can strip out a lot of costs here.

  5. #1785
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
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    Obviously FBU is not known for doing the right thing so I guess I can see them acquiring MPG.

  6. #1786
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arbroath View Post
    Im not saying anyone will pay $1, just that it might be worth around that for the right buyer. An acquirer will only pay what they think they need to and personally I'd say 70-75c would do the trick at this stage leaving probably 30% or so of value upside for the acquirer. Could be more for FBU who can strip out a lot of costs here.
    Would FBU get past Commerce Commission?

  7. #1787
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    Would FBU get past Commerce Commission?
    Should be a breeze. Minor presence in glass market.

    Refer page 16 :

    https://fletcherbuilding.com/assets/...n-20180621.pdf

  8. #1788
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arbroath View Post
    Im not saying anyone will pay $1, just that it might be worth around that for the right buyer. An acquirer will only pay what they think they need to and personally I'd say 70-75c would do the trick at this stage leaving probably 30% or so of value upside for the acquirer. Could be more for FBU who can strip out a lot of costs here.
    FBU stripping out costs...with their track record lately I'd say that's unlikely...because FBU have such a "stellar" record of management and governance lately lol
    Last edited by Beagle; 28-11-2018 at 08:16 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #1789
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    FBU stripping out costs...with their track record lately I'd say that's unlikely...because FBU have such a "stellar" record of management and governance lately lol
    It doesn't really matter if they can. What matters is if they can commission a report that indicates there's big potential synergies. This report would enable their stellar board and management team to decide to make an offer.

  10. #1790
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scrunch View Post
    It doesn't really matter if they can. What matters is if they can commission a report that indicates there's big potential synergies. This report would enable their stellar board and management team to decide to make an offer.
    Sigh - so true and why there has been so much destruction of wealth by NZ companies over the years.

    Telecom - AAPT ($3B+), Air NZ - Ansett ($2b+), Warehouse - Silly Solly & Crazy Clint ($500m+), FBU with its UK Paper ($1.5b+) etc etc etc.

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