MPG - Metro Glass

[BlackPeter]

I have Rakon, MHJ and Evolve as falling more than MPG.

I expect we will see MPG back at 50c or above by day's end.

This is - obviously - a dynamic process. They are now back to 49 cents (used to be 48.5 cents when they were leading the pack). 49 cents is just not good enough if they want to be leader ;

[Balance]

IQE were making $25m EBITA before the sector imploded. If it wasn't for the debt they could have traded their way out of it.

That's the problem with leverage. In the good times it works great, but when the market turns it can go bad pretty quick.

I think this is why Bain is interested. They can see a good business here 5 years from now with no debt. At the moment it looks terrible, hence why everyone has been selling lately.

For the punters though, is it a worthwhile trade? After my experience with IQE I would say no.

Feltex is a better example if you want to use.

Some of us made good money shorting Feltex. Most satisfying experience but also, most disturbing how promoters and directors are able to hoodwink investors and the market with little consequences.

[Balance]

This is - obviously - a dynamic process. They are now back to 49 cents (used to be 48.5 cents when they were leading the pack). 49 cents is just not good enough if they want to be leader ;

Crossing of 2m shares at 50c.

Bain is still a happy buyer.

The shark just took another big mouthful of reef fishes !

[Balance]

lol, just as I posted the above. Maybe they do want it now.

51c bid now. Will finish the day square at 52c, I reckon.

Think of how you will feel when you read of a bid by FBU of 85c facilitated by Bain?

[Balance]

You're dreaming

Bain are vultures. They didn't get rich by over paying.

65c if you're lucky.

Bain gets 20% and flick to FBU.

They get 85c by working the sp to 65c just before a bid.

That's how it works.

[Balance]

Also, why buy now when you can wait 12 months and it will probably be the same price.

85c maybe in 2020/2021.

The property glut will likely last until then.

Property glut?

Really?

Guess the backlog of 25,000 housing shortfall in Auckland is all over then?

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...rtage-could-be

[Balance]

Remember when IQE were going on about international student numbers, then all of a sudden they disappeared?

Apparently only half the building consents are for free standing houses. Do townhouses need more windows, I dunno?

What's going to happen when the new competitor comes online in 18 months time? Will they start to build inventory like CVT does with honey?

Jokes aside, it's easy to see what went on here. The good times seemed like they would never end, so they levered up with debt to fuel growth with new factories and expansion into new markets. Now the spring is in reverse and it's come back in their face.

Do I want to throw the dice here at 50 for the hope of an outside chance of 85? Maybe. Do I want to do it against Bain, no.

IQE was a fraud case - pure and simple.

Like I wrote, Feltex is a more appropriate example to compare if you want to make a case re MPG.

Bain is not playing for 10% gain, that much I can tell you!

Anyway, there's another one on the market which Bain is already involved in which should see action in the new year.

[Arbroath]

51c bid now. Will finish the day square at 52c, I reckon.

Think of how you will feel when you read of a bid by FBU of 85c facilitated by Bain?

No notice yet from Bain which if its them have to file next few days as the crossing at 50c was 1.1% of the stock. Be interesting if its not Bain and someone else is building a position...

I note Bain was very quick to file the next trading day on 3 Dec after picking up 3m shares on 30 Nov.

[Balance]

Is the breakout above 60 about to happen?

Reef fishes - you gotta love them!

[steveb]

Bain Capital probably have their hands full at the moment,buying Esure.